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The report reviews the economic outlook and key assumptions, sets out fiscal analysis including receipts, expenditure, deficit aggregates, and financial transactions, and assesses performance against government fiscal targets. 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To view this licence, visit [nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3](nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3)  \nWhere we have identified any third party copyright information you will need to obtain permission from the copyright holders concerned.  \nThis publication is available [at www.gov.uk/official-documents](at www.gov.uk/official-documents)[ ](at www.gov.uk/official-documents)Any enquiries regarding this publication should be sent to us at[obr.enquiries@obr.uk](obr.enquiries@obr.uk)  \n[ISBN 978-1-5286-4696-3](ISBN 978-1-5286-4696-3)  \n[E03057758 03/24](E03057758 03/24)  \nPrinted on paper containing 40% recycled fibre content minimum.  \nPrinted in the UK by HH Associates Ltd. on behalf of the Controller of His Majesty’s Stationery Office.  \nContents  \nForeword................................................................................... 1  \nChapter 1 Executive summary Overview ............................................................................. 5  \nEconomic outlook ................................................................. 6  \nFiscal outlook ..................................................................... 10  \nPerformance against the Government’s fiscal targets .............. 14  \nRisks and uncertainties ........................................................ 15  \nChapter 2 Economic outlook Introduction........................................................................ 17  \nKey forecast assumptions ..................................................... 18  \nBox 2.1: The economic effects of policy measures .................. 21  \nInflation ............................................................................. 22  \nBox 2.2: Economic implications of further instability in the Middle East ............................................................... 24  \nPotential output................................................................... 26  \nBox 2.3: Net migration forecast and its impact on the economy .................................................................. 28  \nReal GDP and the output gap............................................... 34  \nBox 2.4: How are our Brexit trade forecast assumptions performing? .................................................... 38  \nLabour market.................................................................... 41  \nHousehold income and saving ............................................. 44  \nCredit conditions and the housing market.............................. 45  \nThe current account and sectoral net lending ......................... 46  \nNominal GDP and its composition ........................................ 47  \nComparison with external forecasters.................................... 48  \nChapter 3 Policy measures Introduction........................................................................ 51  \nPolicy announcements in the March 2024 Budget................... 51  \nBox 3.1: Policy responses to revisions in the pre-measures forecast.............................................................................. 54  \nUpdate on previous measures .............................................. 66  \nBox 3.2: The labour supply impacts of personal tax policies..... 68  \nBox 3.3: VAT Retail Export Scheme: review of the 2020 policy costing............................................................................... 71  \nPolicy risks ......................................................................... 77  \nChapter 4 Fiscal outlook Introduction..................................................................","cbCaijVSDR79emOx","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaijVSDR79emOx","pdf",3436677,168,"English","# Foreword\n# Chapter 1 Executive summary Overview\n## Economic outlook\n## Fiscal outlook\n## Performance against the Government’s fiscal targets\n## Risks and uncertainties\n# Chapter 2 Economic outlook Introduction\n## Key forecast assumptions\n## Inflation\n## Potential output\n## Real GDP and the output gap\n## Labour market\n## Household income and saving\n## Credit conditions and the housing market\n## The current account and sectoral net lending\n## Nominal GDP and its composition\n## Comparison with external forecasters\n# Chapter 3 Policy measures Introduction\n## Policy announcements in the March 2024 Budget\n## Update on previous measures\n## Policy risks\n# Chapter 4 Fiscal outlook Introduction\n## Classification and other statistical changes\n## Public sector receipts\n## Public sector expenditure\n## Deficit aggregates\n## Financial transactions\n## Risks and uncertainties\n# Chapter 5 Performance against the Government’s fiscal targets Introduction\n## The fiscal targets\n## Recognising uncertainty\n# Annex A Detailed tables\n# Index of charts and tables","[{\"question\":\"What period does this March 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook cover?\",\"answer\":\"It sets out the central forecast and uncertainties for the five years to 2028-29.\"},{\"question\":\"Which main areas are covered in the report?\",\"answer\":\"The report covers the economic outlook, policy measures, the fiscal outlook, and performance against the government’s fiscal targets, including key risks and uncertainties.\"},{\"question\":\"Does the report include material beyond the main chapters?\",\"answer\":\"Yes. It includes annex tables and an index of charts and tables, with supplementary information and data available on the website.\"}]","Office for Budget Responsibility - Economic and fiscal outlook - March 2024 | PDF",1789956561,423]