[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":3,"doc-seo-344699-105":59,"doc-detail-344699-en":129},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",[7,13,18,23,28,33,38,43,48,51,55],{"id":8,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":10,"show_sort_weight":11,"slug":12},1,"Document","Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":14,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":15,"show_sort_weight":16,"slug":17},2,"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":19,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":20,"show_sort_weight":21,"slug":22},4,"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":24,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":25,"show_sort_weight":26,"slug":27},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":29,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":30,"show_sort_weight":31,"slug":32},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":34,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":35,"show_sort_weight":36,"slug":37},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":39,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":40,"show_sort_weight":41,"slug":42},8,"Research & Report",30,"research-report",{"id":44,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":45,"show_sort_weight":46,"slug":47},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":49,"show_sort_weight":46,"slug":50},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":53,"show_sort_weight":52,"slug":54},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":56,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":57,"show_sort_weight":24,"slug":58},19,"General","general",{"code":4,"msg":60,"data":61},"ok",{"site_id":62,"language":63,"slug":64,"title":65,"keywords":66,"description":67,"schema_data":68,"social_meta":122,"head_meta":124,"extra_data":126,"updated_unix":128},105,"en","observationally-constrained-global-warming-hysteresis-under-co2-removal-article","Observationally constrained global warming hysteresis under CO2 removal - Article","","Stabilizing global warming during continued anthropogenic warming likely requires atmospheric carbon dioxide removal (CDR), yet uncertainty remains about whether CDR can reverse past warming. A three-layer energy-balance emulator, calibrated to instrumental temperature datasets, constrains nonlinear temperature response under CO2 removal. At the same CO2 concentration, warming during removal is projected to be about 0.7 °C warmer on average than during CO2 increase, shrinking inter-model ranges by over 70%. Mitigation scenarios still show temporary overshoot of the 1.5 °C target even under net-zero pathways.",{"@graph":69,"@context":121},[70,84,104],{"@type":71,"itemListElement":72},"BreadcrumbList",[73,77,79,82],{"item":74,"name":75,"@type":76,"position":8},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":78,"name":9,"@type":76,"position":14},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/",{"item":80,"name":40,"@type":76,"position":81},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":83,"name":65,"@type":76,"position":19},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/observationally-constrained-global-warming-hysteresis-under-co2-removal-article/344699/",{"url":83,"name":65,"@type":85,"image":86,"author":91,"headline":65,"publisher":94,"fileFormat":97,"inLanguage":63,"description":67,"dateModified":98,"datePublished":98,"encodingFormat":97,"isAccessibleForFree":99,"interactionStatistic":100},"DigitalDocument",{"url":87,"@type":88,"width":89,"height":90},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/observationally-constrained-global-warming-hysteresis-under-co2-removal-article/344699.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":92,"@type":93},"Putri","Person",{"url":74,"name":95,"@type":96},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-09-22",true,{"@type":101,"interactionType":102,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":103},"ViewAction",{"@type":105,"mainEntity":106},"FAQPage",[107,113,117],{"name":108,"@type":109,"acceptedAnswer":110},"Why is carbon dioxide removal expected to be important for climate targets?","Question",{"text":111,"@type":112},"Because atmospheric CO2 continues to rise and global warming can reach the 1.5 °C threshold, CDR is increasingly relied on to counteract excess emissions and stabilize temperatures.","Answer",{"name":114,"@type":109,"acceptedAnswer":115},"What does “hysteresis” mean in the context of CO2 removal?",{"text":116,"@type":112},"Hysteresis refers to the path-dependent climate response when CO2 increases and then decreases, so recovery may be delayed or limited rather than fully reversing.",{"name":118,"@type":109,"acceptedAnswer":119},"How does the proposed three-layer emulator change the estimate of warming during CO2 removal?",{"text":120,"@type":112},"It projects that, at the same CO2 concentration, warming during the removal phase is on average about 0.7 °C warmer than during the CO2 increasing phase, while reducing the inter-model range substantially.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":83,"og:type":123,"og:title":65,"og:site_name":95,"og:description":67},"article",{"robots":125,"canonical":83},"index,follow",{"doc_id":127,"site_id":62},344699,1790054964,{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":130},{"doc_id":127,"user_id":131,"nickname":92,"user_avatar":132,"doc_module":4,"category_id":39,"category_name":40,"doc_title":65,"doc_description":67,"doc_content":133,"file_id":134,"file_url":135,"file_type":136,"file_size":137,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":8,"is_downloadable":8,"audit_status":8,"page_count":44,"language":138,"language_code":63,"site_id":62,"html_lang":63,"table_of_contents":139,"faqs":140,"seo_title":141,"seo_description":67,"update_tm":128,"read_time":142},962085571259,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_29158cc5080c5b710cf443261637dec0","communications earth & environment Article  \nA Nature Portfolio journal  \n[https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03484-1](https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03484-1)  \nObservationally constrained global  \nwarming hysteresis under CO2 removal  \n Check for updates  \nSe-Yong Song 1, Duo Chan 2  & Sang-Wook Yeh 3   \nStabilizing global warming under ongoing anthropogenic warming will likely require atmospheric carbon dioxide removal. However, the extent to which carbon dioxide removal can reverse past warming remains uncertain due to divergent responses across a limited set of models. Here, we develop a data-driven emulator based on an energy balance model with three layers that captures the nonlinear temperature response to forcing. Calibrated to state-of-the-art instrumental temperature datasets, our observationally constrained emulator projects that, at the same carbon dioxide concentration, global warming during the carbon dioxide removal phase will be on average 0.7 °C (95% confidence interval: [0.5, 1.0]) warmer than during the carbon dioxide increasing phase, narrowing the 0.2–1.9 °C inter-model range by more than 70%. Applied to mitigation scenarios, global warming is projected to temporarily overshoot the 1 .5 °C target, even under stringent pathways reaching net-zero carbon dioxide emissions.  \nDespite ongoing efforts to reduce CO2 emissions, atmospheric CO2 levels continue to increase, with global warming reaching the 1.5 °C threshold in the recent observational record1–3. Given this trajectory, achieving international climate targets increasingly relies on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) to counteract excess emissions and stabilize global temperatures4–6. However, the effectiveness ofCDRin reversing past warming remains uncertain, as the potential hysteresis effects in the climate system may delay or even limit the recovery7,8.  \nAdvances in modelling capability, including the CDR Model Intercomparison Project (CDRMIP)9, have provided insights into the susceptibility of hysteresis and irreversibility across various climate system components10–13. Climate models suggest that even if CO2 concentrations are restored to pre-industrial levels, various climate states, including global mean surface temperature (GMST), the Antarctic ice sheet, sea-level rise, ocean acidification, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and hydrological cycles, may not fully recover to their previous state14–19. As such, hysteresis denotes the path dependence of the climate response during periods of CO2 increase and decrease, while reversibility refers to the ability of the climate system to return to its initial state. This effect manifests on different recovery timescales and across regions, stemming from inertia effects in individual climate system components20,21.  \nDespite insights from Earth System Model (ESM) simulations, in particular, the projected magnitude of GMST hysteresis remains substantially uncertain across models22–24. Such uncertainty is concerning  \nbecause some models fail to reproduce a reasonable historical warming25. Moreover, the limited sets of model simulations used in the CDRMIP9 maybeinsufficient for properly quantifying uncertainties or guiding meaningful emergent constraints23,26. These knowledge gaps clearly challenge targeted long-term policy making and climate action designs27,28.  \nTo understand diverging ESM projections, theories based on energy balance models (EBMs) have been proposed29,30. These models, often containing only two layers representing the surface and interior ocean31, are used to reproduce ESM simulations and explain hysteresis mechanisms using processes such as climate feedback strength and ocean heat uptake efficiency32,33. Although such EBMs have been used to constrain 21stcentury warming projections34, their reproducibility under mitigation pathways including CDR and zero-emission scenarios remains limited, as key aspects of the non-linear temperature response during the recovery pha","cbCaiu1jzQA9GeAx","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiu1jzQA9GeAx","pdf",1463594,"English","# Introduction\n## Carbon dioxide removal and uncertainty of reversibility\n## Existing modelling insights and limitations\n# Method\n## Three-layer energy balance emulator and uncertainty quantification\n# Results\n## Improving GMST hysteresis representation under a CDR scenario","[{\"question\":\"Why is carbon dioxide removal expected to be important for climate targets?\",\"answer\":\"Because atmospheric CO2 continues to rise and global warming can reach the 1.5 °C threshold, CDR is increasingly relied on to counteract excess emissions and stabilize temperatures.\"},{\"question\":\"What does “hysteresis” mean in the context of CO2 removal?\",\"answer\":\"Hysteresis refers to the path-dependent climate response when CO2 increases and then decreases, so recovery may be delayed or limited rather than fully reversing.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the proposed three-layer emulator change the estimate of warming during CO2 removal?\",\"answer\":\"It projects that, at the same CO2 concentration, warming during the removal phase is on average about 0.7 °C warmer than during the CO2 increasing phase, while reducing the inter-model range substantially.\"}]","Observationally constrained global warming hysteresis under CO2 removal - Article | PDF",23]