[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-108854-en":3,"doc-seo-108854-105":30,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":28,"read_time":29},108854,962075114765,"Quinn","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_a8503ba1806abce46bf441b54a3ca4cd",8,"Research & Report","Nowcasting Poverty in Argentina - A Methodological Note","Timeliness of the poverty rate indicator is essential for tracking the effectiveness of policies under volatile economic conditions in Argentina. Because Permanent Household Survey (EPH) microdata arrive with a nine-month delay, poverty can only be estimated for the urban population every six months with limited real-time responsiveness. This note develops a nowcasting approach that estimates poverty and extreme poverty using prior microdata and aggregate price information, producing estimates close to official measures and helping anticipate changes in poverty trends.","Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized  \nNOWCASTING POVERTY IN ARGENTINA.  \nA methodological note1  \nAgustin Arakaki  \nLourdes Rodriguez Chamussy  \nEvelyn Vezza  \nAbstract  \nTimeliness of the poverty rate indicator is critical for monitoring effectiveness of policies in a context of volatile economic conditions. In Argentina, availability of the Permanent Household Survey (EPH) microdata allows estimation of poverty rates for the urban population every six months with a ninemonths delay. Although for international standards, this offers a relatively frequent measurement of poverty, having estimates of the current poverty status is of interest for the design of policy solutions that alleviate the situations of the less well-off. This note presents a method that can be used to estimate (“nowcast”) the rates of poverty and extreme poverty in Argentina based on aggregate data on prices in combination with microdata of previous periods. Evaluation of the methodology shows that the“nowcast” estimates are close approximates to the observed (official measures) and help anticipating changes in trends.  \n1 The methodological approach is based on a methodology by Martín González Rozada, who provided guidance for its use and adaptation. María Ana Lugo contributed to the initial implementation of this methodological approach. Valuable comments and suggestions were received from Jesko Henstchel, Ana Maria Oviedo, Truman Packard, Rafael Rofman, Jordan Schwartz, Peter Siegenthaler, Emily Sinnott and participants in the Poverty and Equity Global Practice BBL Series.  \n1. Introduction  \nTiming and frequency of the data are usually an obstacle to keep track of social phenomena in real time, and monetary poverty is not the exception. 1 As it is well-known, poverty estimation is based on data on an indicator of the welfare dimension (for the case of Latin America usually per capita household income), and the determined threshold below which individuals are considered to be poor. These inputs for estimation generally come from household surveys and the value of a defined consumption basket updated with price indexes. While the value of the consumption basket is regularly updated, survey data is produced with long time intervals and becomes available for poverty estimation with several monthstime lag.  \nAlthough official poverty estimates in Argentina are released more frequently than in many other countries, it still precludes a closer monitoring of living conditions throughout the year, which results very relevant in a context of shocks like those witnessed in the recent past. Official poverty figures are estimated on a biannual basis and made public three months after the end of each semester.2 This implies, for instance, that if there were a shock at the beginning of the first semester of the year-i.e. January-, it would be necessary to wait until September, when the poverty rate for that period is released, to have an estimation of the effects of the shock on welfare.3  \nThis note describes a methodological approach proposed to produce regular poverty estimates for the case of Argentina. The proposed nowcasting methodology is based on aggregated data available before the survey microdata and involves forecasting the income vector using an autoregressive model and updating the value of the consumption basket with regularly available information sources.  \nThis note is divided in five sections. Section 2 introduces the idea of temporality and “moving semesters”as a way to increase the frequency of the estimates. Section 3 describes the methodological decisions to obtain the main inputs required to compute poverty rates -these are updating the value of the consumption baskets and simulating the microdata sets of the household survey- . In the fourth section, performance of this methodology is evaluated with the estimations undertaken to date. Section 5 presents an extension of the methodology to introduce forecasting and simulat","cbCaioTuyjoyohDL","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaioTuyjoyohDL","pdf",340919,4,1,15,"English","en",105,"# Abstract\n# Introduction\n# Data and frequency of its availability\n## Trade-off between frequency and seasonality\n# Methodology overview\n## Temporality and moving semesters\n## Updating consumption baskets and simulating microdata\n## Evaluation of methodology\n## Extension for forecasting and policy responses\n# Summary and limitations","[{\"question\":\"Why is nowcasting needed for poverty in Argentina?\",\"answer\":\"Official poverty estimates rely on EPH microdata that become available with a long time lag, limiting the ability to monitor living conditions throughout the year in the presence of economic shocks.\"},{\"question\":\"What data sources does the nowcasting methodology use?\",\"answer\":\"The method combines aggregate information on prices available before the survey microdata with microdata from previous periods, updating the consumption basket and forecasting income vectors.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the proposed approach improve monitoring of poverty trends?\",\"answer\":\"Evaluation shows the nowcast poverty and extreme poverty estimates closely approximate observed official measures and can anticipate changes in trend direction.\"}]",1784474455,38,{"code":4,"msg":31,"data":32},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":33,"title":13,"keywords":34,"description":14,"schema_data":35,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":28},"nowcasting-poverty-in-argentina-a-methodological-note","",{"@graph":36,"@context":85},[37,53,68],{"@type":38,"itemListElement":39},"BreadcrumbList",[40,44,48,51],{"item":41,"name":42,"@type":43,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":45,"name":46,"@type":43,"position":47},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":49,"name":12,"@type":43,"position":50},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":52,"name":13,"@type":43,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/nowcasting-poverty-in-argentina-a-methodological-note/108854/",{"url":52,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":41,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-30","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"Why is nowcasting needed for poverty in Argentina?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"Official poverty estimates rely on EPH microdata that become available with a long time lag, limiting the ability to monitor living conditions throughout the year in the presence of economic shocks.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"What data sources does the nowcasting methodology use?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"The method combines aggregate information on prices available before the survey microdata with microdata from previous periods, updating the consumption basket and forecasting income vectors.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"How does the proposed approach improve monitoring of poverty trends?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"Evaluation shows the nowcast poverty and extreme poverty estimates closely approximate observed official measures and can anticipate changes in trend 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