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This study analyzes action frequencies, action-to-action transitions, and reward–risk balance among top-level athletes using Bayesian inference on all 93 matches of the 2019 World Submission Fighting Championship. Main actions occur less than once per match except submission attempts, while transitions and reward–risk favor winning sequences. Findings support evidence-based coaching and performance prediction.",{"@graph":69,"@context":123},[70,84,106],{"@type":71,"itemListElement":72},"BreadcrumbList",[73,77,79,82],{"item":74,"name":75,"@type":76,"position":8},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":78,"name":9,"@type":76,"position":14},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/",{"item":80,"name":40,"@type":76,"position":81},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":83,"name":65,"@type":76,"position":19},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/no-gi-brazilian-jiu-jitsu-a-markovian-analysis-of-elite-level-combat-dynamics/149260/",{"url":83,"name":65,"@type":85,"image":86,"author":91,"headline":65,"publisher":94,"fileFormat":97,"inLanguage":63,"description":67,"dateModified":98,"datePublished":99,"encodingFormat":97,"isAccessibleForFree":100,"interactionStatistic":101},"DigitalDocument",{"url":87,"@type":88,"width":89,"height":90},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/no-gi-brazilian-jiu-jitsu-a-markovian-analysis-of-elite-level-combat-dynamics/149260.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":92,"@type":93},"Hazel","Person",{"url":74,"name":95,"@type":96},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-10-22","2026-08-27",true,{"@type":102,"interactionType":103,"userInteractionCount":105},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":104},"ViewAction",16,{"@type":107,"mainEntity":108},"FAQPage",[109,115,119],{"name":110,"@type":111,"acceptedAnswer":112},"What is the main aim of the study on no-gi Brazilian jiu-jitsu?","Question",{"text":113,"@type":114},"To analyze the frequency of actions, the transitions between actions, and the reward–risk balance among top-level competitors.","Answer",{"name":116,"@type":111,"acceptedAnswer":117},"What dataset and analytical approach were used?",{"text":118,"@type":114},"The study includes all 93 matches (90 competitors) from the World Submission Fighting Championship 2019 and uses Bayesian methods to infer action and transition probabilities.",{"name":120,"@type":111,"acceptedAnswer":121},"How did the study define reward–risk balance?",{"text":122,"@type":114},"Reward–risk balance is defined as the probability of submitting minus the probability of being submitted.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":83,"og:type":125,"og:title":65,"og:site_name":95,"og:description":67},"article",{"robots":127,"canonical":83},"index,follow",{"doc_id":129,"site_id":62},149260,1787797241,{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":132},{"doc_id":129,"user_id":133,"nickname":92,"user_avatar":134,"doc_module":4,"category_id":39,"category_name":40,"doc_title":65,"doc_description":67,"doc_content":135,"file_id":136,"file_url":137,"file_type":138,"file_size":139,"view_count":105,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":8,"is_downloadable":8,"audit_status":8,"page_count":44,"language":140,"language_code":63,"site_id":62,"html_lang":63,"table_of_contents":141,"faqs":142,"seo_title":143,"seo_description":67,"update_tm":130,"read_time":144,"preview_page_count":4},137441390410,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/2000252f4ab5702993?_k=1776741390130283984","Original research article  \nNo-gi Brazilian jiu-jitsu: A Markovian analysis of elite-level combat dynamics  \nLeonardo Lamas 1 , Matthew Heiner2 , Mario Ferreira 1, Arthur Moura 1, Wellington Rangel 1 , Gilbert Fellingham2  , and Victor Lage 1   \nInternational Journal of Sports Science  \n& Coaching  \n1–9 © The Author(s) 2023  \nArticle reuse guidelines: [sagepub.com/journals-permissions](sagepub.com/journals-permissions)[ ](sagepub.com/journals-permissions)[DOI: 10.1177/17479541231210979](DOI: 10.1177/17479541231210979)[ ](DOI: 10.1177/17479541231210979)[journals.sagepub.com/home/spo](journals.sagepub.com/home/spo)  \nAbstract  \nNo-gi Brazilian jiu-jitsu is a grappling-based combat sport performed without the jiu-jitsu uniform. It’s fast-growing popularity has been influenced by the contributions to competitors’ performance in mixed martial arts tournaments. This study aimed to analyze the frequency of actions, the transitions between them, and their reward–risk balance—the probability of submitting minus the probability of being submitted—among top-level competitors. Data encompassed all 93 matches (90 competitors) of the World Submission Fighting Championship-2019. Reliability was assessed by two experts (sports scientists, more than 10 years as no-gi Brazilian jiu-jitsu competitors). Data analyses used Bayesian methods for inference. Posterior distributions of the mean frequencies of actions indicate that the main actions (e.g. takedown, sweep, and back-take) tended to occur less than once per competitor in each match, except by the submission attempt (point estimate of 1.03 per match). The highest estimates for the transition probabilities between match actions were withincompetitor—a guard pass action to another guard pass action (0.30); between-competitors—a takedown attempt to a submission attempt (0.15). Most of the actions presented positive reward-risk balance, particularly for the back-take, which showed the highest probability of direct transition to submission (0.45). The dynamic analysis of no-gi Brazilian jiu-jitsu matches evidenced some preferential actions’ transitions associated with winning. Findings should enhance the accuracy of performance prediction and provide evidence-based recommendations for coaches.  \nKeywords  \nGrappling, martial arts, performance analysis, submission fighting, tactics  \nIntroduction  \nBrazilian jiu-jitsu (BJJ) is a grappling-based combat sport in which a smaller and weaker person can beat a bigger and stronger opponent by using the levers of a body correctly and utilizing torque and pressure to control the other competitor.1 Its actions are predominantly performed on the ground, progressing along positions of dominance over the opponent until the victory is obtained by submission—through a choke or twist—or points.2  \nBJJ may be performed in two conditions, with or without the traditional uniform-gi. The no-gi condition has gained attention because of the successful use of its techniques by mixed martial arts competitors.3 Differences may exist between BJJ conditions in terms of grappling, pace, and rules, with implications for athletes’ preparation and competitive performance.4 For the gi condition, time–motion evidence indicates the ratios of 6:1 for effort-pause, where effort can be either low- or high-intensity, and 8:1 for low–high intensity sequences in matches.3 For the no-gi  \ncondition, evidence for low- to high-intensity sequences in matches indicates the ratios of 2:1 and 1:1 for regional and international athletes, respectively.4 Time–motion results reinforce the intensive nature of the sport. To enhance the coach’s understanding of BJJ, time–motion data should be combined with evidence from the match tactics.  \nIn the lower expertise levels (i.e. white and blue belts), competitors may choose distinct tactical and technical  \nReviewers: Jim Griffin (University College London, UK)  \nBenjamin Holmes (University of Liverpool, UK)  \n1 LabEsporte, Faculty of Physical Education, U","cbCaiuADQph3J4D4","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiuADQph3J4D4","pdf",1865322,"English","# Abstract\n# Introduction\n## Brazilian jiu-jitsu and no-gi condition\n## Time–motion evidence and tactical relevance\n## Markov processes and prior combat-sport applications","[{\"question\":\"What is the main aim of the study on no-gi Brazilian jiu-jitsu?\",\"answer\":\"To analyze the frequency of actions, the transitions between actions, and the reward–risk balance among top-level competitors.\"},{\"question\":\"What dataset and analytical approach were used?\",\"answer\":\"The study includes all 93 matches (90 competitors) from the World Submission Fighting Championship 2019 and uses Bayesian methods to infer action and transition probabilities.\"},{\"question\":\"How did the study define reward–risk balance?\",\"answer\":\"Reward–risk balance is defined as the probability of submitting minus the probability of being submitted.\"}]","No-gi Brazilian jiu-jitsu - A Markovian analysis of elite-level combat dynamics | PDF",23]