[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-109828-en":3,"doc-seo-109828-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":92},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},109828,962075114765,"Quinn","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_a8503ba1806abce46bf441b54a3ca4cd",8,"Research & Report","Niger - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - October 2020","Niger’s risk of external and overall public debt distress increased following the COVID-19 shock, yet the risk rating remains moderate. Higher borrowing was needed, while exports fell sharply and trade disruptions followed the decision to close the border. Two external-debt indicators breach thresholds in the baseline in 2020–21 and 2021, respectively, though gold export revisions may reduce threshold breaches. The analysis assumes reform implementation and the timing of oil exports. Key priorities include strengthening debt management, reducing fiscal risks from SOEs and PPPs, emphasizing concessional borrowing, and supporting economic diversification.","Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION  \nINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nNIGER  \nJoint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis  \nOctober 2020  \nPrepared Jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA)  \nand the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \nApproved by Marcello Estevão (IDA), Vitaliy Kramarenko and Martin Sommer (IMF)  \n\n| Niger: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Limited space to absorb shocks |\n| Application of judgement | Yes |\n\nNiger’s risk of external and overall public debt distress has increased but the risk rating remains“moderate.” 1 The response to the COVID-19 pandemic required higher borrowing, but, more importantly, the shock entailed a sharp fall in exports, together with Nigeria’s decision to close its border to trade. Two debt indicators now breach their thresholds in the baseline—the PV of PPG external debt relative to exports and the PPG debt service-to-exports ratio, for two years, in 2020- 21, and one year, in 2021, respectively, until the onset of crude oil exports during 2022 via a new pipeline. But the impending sharp upward revision of gold exports provides grounds not to change Niger’s debt distress rating at this point. While not yet finalized and integrated into the macroeconomic framework, customs data and independent information on the surge of artisanal gold production suggest a revision on a scale that would leave only one minor threshold breach. The DSAis otherwise predicated on the government implementing its reform program and the timetable for the start of oil exports holding. Identified weaknesses call for further strengthening debt management, reducing fiscal risks from SOEs and PPPs, prioritizing concessional borrowing, and strengthening private-sector development to support economic diversification.  \n1The DSA follows the IMF and World Bank Staff Guidance Note on the Application of the Joint Fund-Bank Debt Sustainability Framework (DSF) for Low-Income Countries (LICs) (February 2018) . Niger’s debt-carrying capacity remains rated “medium”with a composite indicator value of 2.94 according to the October 2019 vintage of the World Economic Outlook.  \nPUBLIC DEBT COVERAGE  \n1. The coverage of the public sector in the DSA is in line with the fiscal accounts (Text Table 1). It covers the central government but excludes local governments and the social security fund. There are no extra budgetary funds. State guarantees extended to the private and public sectors for external borrowing are included. Publicly-guaranteed private debt is limited to the guarantee issued to the China National Petroleum Company (CNPC) for a loan to finance the government’s minority stake in the refinery SORAZ.2 SOEs do not directly borrow from abroad, benefitting instead from on-lending by the central government, which is captured in the debt statistics at the stage where the central government borrows the funds. This includes electricity (NIGELEC), water (SPEN), and a telecom (Niger Telecom) companies, and the ABK, a public administrative entity set up for implementing the Kandadji dam project. Absent reliable data, the DSA cannot explicitly account for domestic SOE debt. The authorities are working with the World Bank to improve the availability and quality of financial information for SOEs. A new dedicated directorate general has been established in the Ministry of Finance in late 2019 . External debt is generally defined on a currency basis.3  \nText Table 1. Niger: Coverage of Public-Sector Debt and Design of Contingent Liability Stress  \nTest  \n\n|  |\n| --- |\n|  |\n\nSubsectors of the public sector Sub-sectors covered  \n1 Central government X  \n2 State and local government  \n3 Other elements in the general government  \n4 o/w: Social security fund  \n5 o/w: Extra budgetary funds","cbCaivEHXKCHH2HU","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaivEHXKCHH2HU","pdf",677558,3,1,21,"English","en",105,"# Risk of debt distress\n## Baseline breaches and gold export update\n## Assumptions on reforms and oil exports timing\n# Public debt coverage\n## Scope of the public sector in the DSA\n## State guarantees, SOEs, and data limitations\n## Contingent liability stress test design","[{\"question\":\"Why did Niger’s debt distress risk increase while the overall rating stayed moderate?\",\"answer\":\"The COVID-19 period required higher borrowing and triggered a sharp export decline alongside trade disruption. Despite baseline threshold breaches, an expected upward revision of gold exports is considered a mitigating factor, keeping the rating moderate.\"},{\"question\":\"Which debt indicators breach their thresholds in the baseline?\",\"answer\":\"The PV of PPG external debt relative to exports breaches thresholds for two years (2020–21), and the PPG debt service-to-exports ratio breaches thresholds for one year (2021).\"},{\"question\":\"What does the debt sustainability analysis assume for its projections?\",\"answer\":\"It is predicated on implementing the government’s reform program and on the start of oil exports occurring as scheduled. It also highlights the need for strengthening debt management and reducing fiscal risks from SOEs and PPPs.\"}]","Niger - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - October 2020 | PDF",1784482568,53,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":87,"head_meta":89,"extra_data":91,"updated_unix":29},"niger-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-october-2020","",{"@graph":37,"@context":86},[38,54,69],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,49,51],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":48},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":50,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",{"item":52,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":53},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/niger-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-october-2020/109828/",4,{"url":52,"name":13,"@type":55,"author":56,"headline":13,"publisher":58,"fileFormat":61,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":62,"datePublished":63,"encodingFormat":61,"isAccessibleForFree":64,"interactionStatistic":65},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":57},"Person",{"url":42,"name":59,"@type":60},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-29","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":66,"interactionType":67,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":68},"ViewAction",{"@type":70,"mainEntity":71},"FAQPage",[72,78,82],{"name":73,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":75},"Why did Niger’s debt distress risk increase while the overall rating stayed moderate?","Question",{"text":76,"@type":77},"The COVID-19 period required higher borrowing and triggered a sharp export decline alongside trade disruption. Despite baseline threshold breaches, an expected upward revision of gold exports is considered a mitigating factor, keeping the rating moderate.","Answer",{"name":79,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":80},"Which debt indicators breach their thresholds in the baseline?",{"text":81,"@type":77},"The PV of PPG external debt relative to exports breaches thresholds for two years (2020–21), and the PPG debt service-to-exports ratio breaches thresholds for one year (2021).",{"name":83,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":84},"What does the debt sustainability analysis assume for its projections?",{"text":85,"@type":77},"It is predicated on implementing the government’s reform program and on the start of oil exports occurring as scheduled. It also highlights the need for strengthening debt management and reducing fiscal risks from SOEs and PPPs.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":52,"og:type":88,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":59,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":90,"canonical":52},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":93},[94,98,102,106,111,116,121,124,129,132,136],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":95,"show_sort_weight":96,"slug":97},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":48,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":99,"show_sort_weight":100,"slug":101},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":53,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":103,"show_sort_weight":104,"slug":105},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":107,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":112,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":113,"show_sort_weight":114,"slug":115},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":117,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":118,"show_sort_weight":119,"slug":120},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":122,"slug":123},30,"research-report",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":126,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":128},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":127,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":130,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":131},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":133,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":134,"show_sort_weight":133,"slug":135},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":137,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":138,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":139},19,"General","general"]