[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111242-en":3,"doc-seo-111242-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111242,16904993612988,"Olivia Brown","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_a8503ba1806abce46bf441b54a3ca4cd",8,"Research & Report","Niger - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - High risk of debt distress","Niger’s joint Bank-Fund debt sustainability analysis rates both external and overall public debt distress as “High,” reflecting a downgrade from the July 2024 DSA while concluding that public debt is sustainable. The reassessment is driven mainly by weaker revenue projections that breached the external debt service-to-revenue threshold in 2024–2025, although other baseline indicators remain within limits. Domestic debt faces higher rollover risks after the military takeover, with attention required for crude oil price volatility, border tensions with Benin, security deterioration, and climate vulnerabilities. Despite uncertainty, prudent debt policy, arrears clearance, fiscal revenue mobilization, and limits on non-concessional borrowing are recommended, alongside stronger macroeconomic and debt-management reforms and resilience investments.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Abebe Adugna (IDA) , and Annalisa Fedelino and Fabian Valencia (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .1  \n\n| NIGER: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nNiger’s risk of external and overall public debt distress is assessed as “High”—downgraded from the previous DSA published in July 2024, and the public debt is deemed sustainable.2The downgrading is primarily attributed to lower revenue projections, which induced breaches in the external debt service-to-revenue ratio threshold in 2024 and 2025, other debt indicators remain below their thresholds under the baseline scenario.  \nNonetheless, for domestic debt, roll-over risks are more elevated due to Niger’s overreliance on relatively higher-cost and shorter maturity financing following the military takeover. Special attention should be paid to the evolution of risks, particularly those linked to crude oil price volatility, prolonged border tensions with Benin, a deterioration in the security situation and vulnerability to climate change, as they may impact debt sustainability if they were to materialize. Given high levels of uncertainty, prudent debt policies should still be pursued. Strengthening fiscal position, especially greater efforts on domestic revenue mobilization, remains an imperative in the face of heightened vulnerabilities. In the short term, it is essential to fully implement the arrears clearance plan to ensure fiscal stability, rebuild public trust, and support the economic recovery. At the same time, it is crucial to maintain a zero ceiling on non-concessional debt and avoid overreliance on higher-cost domestic borrowing to finance the budget. In the medium and long term, continuous efforts should be made to entrench sound macroeconomic policies, implement reforms, enhance debt management practices,  \n1 This DSA was prepared in line with Guidance Note on Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries, 2018, and its supplement.  \n2 Niger’s debt-carrying capacity remains rated “medium” with a composite indicator value of 2.87 based on the October 2024 IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) and the 2023 World Bank’s Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) .  \nimprove public investment management, and increase public spending efficiency, to buttress debt sustainability amid greater economic uncertainty. Given Niger’s vulnerabilities to climate change, it is essential to build resilience through adaptation investments and policies, while maintaining fiscal prudence.  \n1. Niger’s public and public guaranteed (PPG) debt primarily covers the central government  \n(Text Table 1) . State and local government entities do not borrow directly on their own, and the social security fund and extra-budget funds are not covered by the DSA. 3 State guarantees extended to the private and public sectors for external borrowing are included. Publicly guaranteed private debt includes only the guarantee issued to the China National Petroleum Company (CNPC) for a loan to finance the SORAZ refinery to cover the government’s minority stake.4 SOEs do not directly borrow abroad, benefitting instead from on-lending by the central government, which is captured in debt statistics.5 The availability of reliable data on domestic SOE debt is still limited. To strengthen debt transparency and expand the coverage of public debt reporting, the Government had implemented measures to publish annually on the Ministry of Finance’s website financial information for the largest SOEs in 2022-2023 supported by the World Bank’s Sustainable Development Financing Policy (SDFP) . There has been a pause in these efforts since t","cbCaihTSqxeHHY4c","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaihTSqxeHHY4c","pdf",821436,1,22,"English","en",105,"# Risk rating and rationale\n## External and overall debt distress\n## Domestic debt rollover risks and key vulnerabilities\n# Policy recommendations and medium-term priorities\n# Debt coverage, data limitations, and contingent liabilities stress tests","[{\"question\":\"What risk level does the analysis assign to Niger’s external and overall public debt distress?\",\"answer\":\"Both external and overall public debt distress are rated “High,” though public debt is assessed as sustainable.\"},{\"question\":\"Why was the July 2024 DSA downgraded?\",\"answer\":\"Lower revenue projections led to breaches in the external debt service-to-revenue threshold in 2024 and 2025; other indicators stayed below their thresholds under the baseline.\"},{\"question\":\"What domestic and external factors could threaten debt sustainability?\",\"answer\":\"Higher domestic rollover risks stem from reliance on costlier, shorter-maturity financing. Key vulnerabilities include crude oil price volatility, prolonged border tensions with Benin, security deterioration, and climate-change impacts.\"}]",1784489271,55,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"niger-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-high-risk-of-debt-distress","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/niger-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-high-risk-of-debt-distress/111242/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What risk level does the analysis assign to Niger’s external and overall public debt distress?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"Both external and overall public debt distress are rated “High,” though public debt is assessed as sustainable.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Why was the July 2024 DSA downgraded?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"Lower revenue projections led to breaches in the external debt service-to-revenue threshold in 2024 and 2025; other indicators stayed below their thresholds under the baseline.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"What domestic and external factors could threaten debt sustainability?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"Higher domestic rollover risks stem from reliance on costlier, shorter-maturity financing. Key vulnerabilities include crude oil price volatility, prolonged border tensions with Benin, security deterioration, and climate-change impacts.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,110,115,120,123,128,131,135],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]