[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110046-en":3,"doc-seo-110046-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":93},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},110046,7971461741311,"Ophelia","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/74000253aff267980c6?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1779345379180704826",8,"Research & Report","Niger - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - April 2020","Joint World Bank–IMF debt sustainability analysis for Niger assesses the risk of debt distress under baseline and stress scenarios. The updated framework incorporates COVID-19 shocks and revisions to national accounts using SNA 2008, cutting 2020 real growth to 1% and projecting a fiscal deficit near 5% of GDP. Despite continued “moderate” risk, pandemic-driven erosion of buffers raises downside risks and highlights vulnerability to commodity price and export shocks, including PPP and SOE fiscal risks. Stress tests and scenarios guide mitigation needs.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION  \nINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nNIGER  \nJOINT WORLD BANK-IMF DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS  \nApril 2020  \nPrepared jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA)  \nand the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \n\n| Benin: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate 1 |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Limited space |\n| Application of judgment | No 2 |\n| Macroeconomic projections | Transitory weakening of economic growth and fiscal balance due to the COVID-19 pandemic |\n| Financing strategy | Additional financial assistance from IFIs and donors on favorable terms |\n| Realism tools flagged | Large unexpected rise in public debt in last five years |\n| Mechanical risk rating under the external DSA | Moderate |\n| Mechanical risk rating under the public DSA | Moderate |\n| 1/The coverage ofthe DSA remains unchanged compared to the previous DSA of June 2019 and comprises the central government, including funds borrowed for on-lending to SOEs, and guarantees for external borrowing by the private sector. Extra budgetary funds no lot exist. Local governments and SOEs are not covered for lack of data . |  |\n\nThe updated DSA incorporates the economic and fiscal effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as therevision of Niger’s national accounts in the context of the migration to SNA 2008. Real GDP growth for 2020 has been cut to 1 percent, from 6 percent, and the fiscal deficit is now headed for 5 percent of GDP, compared to 2.7 percent of GDP previously projected. The implied financing gap is assumed to be filled by financial assistance from IFIs and donors at favorable terms. The long-term economic outlook remains largely intact, as does the thrust of economic policies.  \nThis DSA continues to rate Niger’s risk of debt distress as “moderate.” But the setback from the pandemic has eroded buffers and downside risks to the outlook dominate, underscoring the need to mitigate debt vulnerabilities, especially vigilance in taking on external debt, stepped-up efforts to diversify exports, and attention to fiscal risks from PPPs and SOEs. Stress tests and alternative scenarios continue to demonstrate Niger’s vulnerability to commodity price and export shocks.  \n1 Niger’s debt-carrying capacity remains rated as “medium,” with a composite indicator (CI) reading of 2.94 based on the October 2019 vintage of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) and the 2018 CPIA.  \n2 One-time breach of the threshold for the PV ofPPG external debt in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic is discounted.  \n\n| Figure 1. Niger: Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Under Alternative\u003Cbr>Scenarios, 2020–31 |  |  |  |  |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n| 45\u003Cbr>40\u003Cbr>35\u003Cbr>30\u003Cbr>25\u003Cbr>20\u003Cbr>15\u003Cbr>10\u003Cbr>5\u003Cbr>0\u003Cbr>30\u003Cbr>25\u003Cbr>20\u003Cbr>15\u003Cbr>10\u003Cbr>5\u003Cbr>0 | PV of debt-to GDP ratio\u003Cbr>\u003Cbr>2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031\u003Cbr>Debt service-to-exports ratio\u003Cbr>\u003Cbr>2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 |  | 400\u003Cbr>350\u003Cbr>300\u003Cbr>250\u003Cbr>200\u003Cbr>150\u003Cbr>100\u003Cbr>50\u003Cbr>0\u003Cbr>20\u003Cbr>18\u003Cbr>16\u003Cbr>14\u003Cbr>12\u003Cbr>10\u003Cbr>8\u003Cbr>6\u003Cbr>4\u003Cbr>2\u003Cbr>0 | PV of debt-to-exports ratio\u003Cbr>\u003Cbr>2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031\u003Cbr>Debt service-to-revenue ratio\u003Cbr>\u003Cbr>2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 |\n|  Baseline  Historical scenario ~~ ~~ Most extreme shock 1/  Threshold\u003Cbr>\u003Cbr>Stress test with (the largest) one-off breach |  |  |  |  |\n| \u003Cbr>Customization of Default Settings\u003Cbr>\u003Cbr>Size Interactions\u003Cbr>Tailored Tests\u003Cbr>Combined CLs Natural Disasters Commodity Prices Market Financing\u003Cbr>2/\u003Cbr>Non.a. Non.a.\u003Cbr>n.a. Non.a.\u003Cbr>\u003Cbr>\u003Cbr>Note: \"Yes\" indicates any change to the size or interactions of the default settings for the stress tests. \"n.a.\" indicates that the stress test does n","cbCaijF0aDiYyH0s","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaijF0aDiYyH0s","pdf",527509,5,1,10,"English","en",105,"# Key risk ratings and assumptions\n## External debt distress risk\n## Public debt distress risk\n# Impact of COVID-19 and national accounts revision\n## Macroeconomic and fiscal projections\n## Financing gap and policy thrust\n# Indicators and stress-test scenarios\n## Alternative scenarios and thresholds\n## Borrowing assumptions for stress tests","[{\"question\":\"What is the overall risk of debt distress for Niger in this analysis?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis rates Niger’s overall risk of debt distress as “moderate.” It notes that COVID-19 weakened buffers and increased downside risks.\"},{\"question\":\"How did COVID-19 affect the macroeconomic and fiscal outlook used in the updated DSA?\",\"answer\":\"Real GDP growth for 2020 is cut to 1% (from 6%), and the fiscal deficit is projected around 5% of GDP (from 2.7% previously projected).\"},{\"question\":\"What key vulnerabilities do stress tests highlight for Niger?\",\"answer\":\"Stress tests and alternative scenarios show vulnerability to commodity price and export shocks, and the analysis emphasizes fiscal risks from PPPs and SOEs.\"}]","Niger - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - April 2020 | PDF",1784483631,25,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":88,"head_meta":90,"extra_data":92,"updated_unix":29},"niger-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-april-2020","",{"@graph":37,"@context":87},[38,55,70],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,49,52],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":48},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":50,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":51},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":53,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":54},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/niger-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-april-2020/110046/",4,{"url":53,"name":13,"@type":56,"author":57,"headline":13,"publisher":59,"fileFormat":62,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":63,"datePublished":64,"encodingFormat":62,"isAccessibleForFree":65,"interactionStatistic":66},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":58},"Person",{"url":42,"name":60,"@type":61},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-08-02","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":67,"interactionType":68,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":69},"ViewAction",{"@type":71,"mainEntity":72},"FAQPage",[73,79,83],{"name":74,"@type":75,"acceptedAnswer":76},"What is the overall risk of debt distress for Niger in this analysis?","Question",{"text":77,"@type":78},"The analysis rates Niger’s overall risk of debt distress as “moderate.” It notes that COVID-19 weakened buffers and increased downside risks.","Answer",{"name":80,"@type":75,"acceptedAnswer":81},"How did COVID-19 affect the macroeconomic and fiscal outlook used in the updated DSA?",{"text":82,"@type":78},"Real GDP growth for 2020 is cut to 1% (from 6%), and the fiscal deficit is projected around 5% of GDP (from 2.7% previously projected).",{"name":84,"@type":75,"acceptedAnswer":85},"What key vulnerabilities do stress tests highlight for Niger?",{"text":86,"@type":78},"Stress tests and alternative scenarios show vulnerability to commodity price and export shocks, and the analysis emphasizes fiscal risks from PPPs and SOEs.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":53,"og:type":89,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":60,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":91,"canonical":53},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":94},[95,99,103,107,111,116,121,124,129,132,135],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":96,"show_sort_weight":97,"slug":98},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":48,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":100,"show_sort_weight":101,"slug":102},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":54,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":104,"show_sort_weight":105,"slug":106},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":112,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":113,"show_sort_weight":114,"slug":115},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":117,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":118,"show_sort_weight":119,"slug":120},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":122,"slug":123},30,"research-report",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":126,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":128},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":127,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":130,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":131},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":22,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":22,"slug":134},"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":20,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]