[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111640-en":3,"doc-seo-111640-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":90},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111640,7971461740909,"Levi","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_155a257f0dc6eb9ab79c44ca47cae57d",8,"Research & Report","NIGER: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS - External debt distress risk - Moderate","Niger’s risk of external debt distress and overall public debt distress is assessed as “moderate,” unchanged from the July 2023 DSA. The July 2023 military takeover shifted the political equilibrium and strained traditional development partnerships, intensifying pre-existing vulnerabilities tied to Sahel conflict and extreme weather. Key indicators stay below thresholds except for a one-year breach in the external debt service-to-revenue ratio, discounted due to weaker new financing and an economic rebound after sanctions were lifted and crude oil exports started in 2024. Space to absorb shocks is limited, requiring buffer preservation, careful monitoring of oil-price volatility, security deterioration and climate risks, arrears clearance, concessional external financing, and sustained macro reforms to strengthen debt sustainability.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Abebe Adugna (IDA) and Annalisa Fedelino and Fabian Valencia (IMF) .  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) 1.  \n\n| NIGER: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Limited space to absorb shocks |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nNiger’s risk of external and overall public debt distress is assessed as “moderate”—unchanged from the previous DSA published in July 2023.2 However, the military takeover of July 2023 changed the political equilibrium in Niger and strained the relationship with traditional development partners, exacerbating pre-existing debt vulnerabilities linked to intensified conflict in the Sahel and extreme weather events. Debt indicators remain below their thresholds under the baseline scenario, except for one single year breach in the external debt service-to-revenue ratio, which is discounted from the analysis. This is primarily attributed to the decline of new financing and the economic rebound following the lifting of sanctions and the commencement of crude oil exports in 2024. The space to absorb shocks is assessed to be limited, which underscores the importance of preserving buffers. Special attention should be paid to the evolution of risks, in particular those linked to crude oil price volatility, a deterioration in the security situation and vulnerability to climate change, as they may impact debt sustainability if they were to materialize. Given high levels of uncertainty, prudent debt policies should still be pursued, and fiscal consolidation remains an imperative in the face of heightened vulnerabilities. In the short term, it is essential to fully implement the arrears clearance plan to ensure fiscal stability, rebuild public trust, and support the economic recovery. At the same time, it is crucial to continue to prioritize external financing in the form of concessionaland semi-concessional loans and grants and avoid overreliance on high-cost domestic borrowing to finance the budget. In the medium and long-term, continuous efforts should be made to entrench sound macroeconomic policies, implement  \n1 This DSA was prepared based on the Guidance Note on the Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries, 2017.  \n2 Niger’s debt-carrying capacity remains rated “medium” with a composite indicator value of 2.87 based on the April 2024 IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) and the 2022 World Bank’s Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) .  \nreforms, enhance debt management practices, improve public investment management, and increase public spending efficiency, in order to buttress debt sustainability amid greater economic uncertainty. Given Niger’s vulnerabilities to climate change, it is crucial to build resilience through adaptation investments and policies, while maintaining fiscal prudence.  \n1. Niger’s public and public guaranteed (PPG) debt primarily covers the central government  \n(Text Table 1) . State and local government entities do not borrow directly on their own, and the social security fund and extra-budget funds are not covered by the DSA. 3 State guarantees extended to the private and public sectors for external borrowing are included. Publicly guaranteed private debt includes only the guarantee issued to the China National Petroleum Company (CNPC) for a loan to finance the SORAZ refinery to cover the government’s minority stake.4 SOEs do not directly borrow abroad, benefitting instead from on-lending by the central government, which is captured in debt statistics.5 The availability of reliable data on domestic SOE debt is limited. With the World Bank’s support, the authorities have published the certified financial statements for 2019 and 2020 of th","cbCaic2JAKGCIuXn","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaic2JAKGCIuXn","pdf",656701,1,21,"English","en",105,"# Risk assessment of debt distress\n## External debt distress risk (moderate)\n## Overall risk of debt distress (moderate)\n# Drivers and mitigating factors\n## Political shifts, conflict, and climate shocks\n## One-year indicator breach and discounting rationale\n# Policy priorities\n## Arrears clearance and fiscal stability\n## Financing mix and avoiding high-cost domestic borrowing\n## Medium- and long-term reforms\n# Coverage and debt composition notes\n## Public and public guaranteed (PPG) debt scope","[{\"question\":\"How is Niger’s external debt distress risk rated in the analysis?\",\"answer\":\"It is rated “moderate,” unchanged from the previous DSA published in July 2023.\"},{\"question\":\"Why does the analysis discount a one-year breach in an external debt indicator?\",\"answer\":\"The breach in the external debt service-to-revenue ratio is discounted because it reflects declining new financing and an economic rebound following sanctions lifting and the start of crude oil exports in 2024.\"},{\"question\":\"What short-term actions are highlighted to support fiscal stability and recovery?\",\"answer\":\"Fully implementing the arrears clearance plan is emphasized to ensure fiscal stability, rebuild public trust, and support the economic recovery.\"}]",1784491040,53,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":85,"head_meta":87,"extra_data":89,"updated_unix":27},"niger-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-external-debt-distress-risk-moderate","",{"@graph":35,"@context":84},[36,53,67],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/niger-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-external-debt-distress-risk-moderate/111640/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":61,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":62,"interactionStatistic":63},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":64,"interactionType":65,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":66},"ViewAction",{"@type":68,"mainEntity":69},"FAQPage",[70,76,80],{"name":71,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":73},"How is Niger’s external debt distress risk rated in the analysis?","Question",{"text":74,"@type":75},"It is rated “moderate,” unchanged from the previous DSA published in July 2023.","Answer",{"name":77,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":78},"Why does the analysis discount a one-year breach in an external debt indicator?",{"text":79,"@type":75},"The breach in the external debt service-to-revenue ratio is discounted because it reflects declining new financing and an economic rebound following sanctions lifting and the start of crude oil exports in 2024.",{"name":81,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":82},"What short-term actions are highlighted to support fiscal stability and recovery?",{"text":83,"@type":75},"Fully implementing the arrears clearance plan is emphasized to ensure fiscal stability, rebuild public trust, and support the economic recovery.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":86,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":88,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":91},[92,96,100,104,109,114,119,122,127,130,134],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":93,"show_sort_weight":94,"slug":95},"Story & 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