[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-109855-en":3,"doc-seo-109855-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":93},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},109855,962075114101,"Seraphina","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/e000253a75eb197efd?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1780044092746381165",8,"Research & Report","Nicaragua - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - November 2020","The joint World Bank-IMF debt sustainability analysis for Nicaragua assesses both external debt distress risk and overall debt distress risk as moderate, citing limited space to absorb shocks. The baseline scenario relies on multi-year fiscal consolidation with permanent measures of at least 3 percent of GDP, unwind of COVID-19 temporary programs, and a deficit reduction of 3.6 percent of GDP during 2021–23. Under the most extreme shock scenario, public debt indicators breach thresholds over an extended period, including contingent-liability shocks linked to external cooperation with Venezuela.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION  \nINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nNICARAGUA  \nJOINT WORLD BANK-IMF DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS  \nNovember 2020  \nPrepared Jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA)  \nand the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \n\n| Nicaragua: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of External Debt Distress: | Moderate1 |\n| Overall Risk of Debt Distress: | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the Risk Rating: | Limited space to absorb shocks |\n| Application of Judgment: | No |\n| Macroeconomic Projections: | Real GDP at -5.5 percent in 2020. Reduced exports, tourism, remittances, and FDI effect a current account deterioration of more than 5½ percentage points of GDP in 2020. 2 Protracted negative effects in activity, exports, remittances and inflows are projected. |\n| Financing Strategy: | Same as previous DSA with additional financing needs filled by RFI/RCF, other multilateral institutions (i.e. WB3 and IADB) . |\n| Realism Tools Flagged: | None |\n| Mechanical Risk Rating under the External DSA: | Moderate |\n| Mechanical Risk Rating under the Public DSA: | Moderate |\n\n1 Nicaragua’s Composite Indicator score is 2.94 which is based on October 2019 WEO and 2018 CPIA and the classification of debt-carrying capacity is medium.  \n2 Historical data for the current account balance has been revised with respect to the last Bank-IMF DSA (February 2020) .  \n3 In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the World Bank is making available, on humanitarian grounds, an emergency health loan of US$13 .1 million, due for Board review in November 2020.  \nJoint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis4  \nRisks of external debt distress and overall risk of debt distress are both assessed as moderate with limited space to absorb shocks, which is unchanged relative to the previous DSA of February 2020. The baseline scenario assumes that the government adopts a multi-year fiscal consolidation plan with permanent measures of at least 3 percent of GDP and unwinds the temporary programs implemented in response to COVID-19. The reduction in the fiscal deficit over 2021–23 equals 3.6 percent of GDP that allows to lower the debt level over those years. Under the baseline scenario, external debt burden indicators, remain below the threshold. However, the present value (PV) of public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) external debt-toGDP ratio breaches over an extended period under the most extreme shock scenario and contingent liability tailored shock which is related to the external cooperation with Venezuela. The overall risk of public debt distress is also assessed as moderate. The PV of public debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to be below the threshold under the baseline scenario, but it is projected to surpass the threshold under the most extreme shock scenario, notably lower GDP growth, and realization of contingent liability shock. Were external financing envisaged under the baseline not to materialize in the near and/or medium term, the authorities would be prepared to implement contingency measures to ensure debt sustainability.  \n4 Debt coverage is the same as in the previous DSA reported in February 2020.  \n\n| Figure AI.1. Nicaragua: Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt under\u003Cbr>Alternatives Scenarios, 2020–30 |  |  |  |  |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n| 60\u003Cbr>50\u003Cbr>40\u003Cbr>30\u003Cbr>20\u003Cbr>10\u003Cbr>0\u003Cbr>16\u003Cbr>14\u003Cbr>12\u003Cbr>10\u003Cbr>8\u003Cbr>6\u003Cbr>4\u003Cbr>2\u003Cbr>0 | PV of debt-to GDP ratio\u003Cbr>\u003Cbr>Most extreme shock is Exports\u003Cbr>2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030\u003Cbr>Debt service-to-exports ratio\u003Cbr>\u003Cbr>Most extreme shock is Exports\u003Cbr>2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 |  | 200\u003Cbr>180\u003Cbr>160\u003Cbr>140\u003Cbr>120\u003Cbr>100\u003Cbr>80\u003Cbr>60\u003Cbr>40\u003Cbr>20\u003Cbr>0\u003Cbr>20\u003Cbr>18\u003Cbr>16\u003Cbr>14\u003Cbr>12\u003Cbr>10\u003Cbr>8\u003Cbr>6\u003Cbr>4\u003Cbr>2\u003Cbr>0 | PV of debt-to-exports ratio\u003Cbr>Most extreme shock is Exports\u003Cbr>\u003Cbr>2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030\u003Cbr>Debt service-to-revenue ratio\u003Cbr>\u003Cbr>M","cbCaipGfVzQ8lDqG","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaipGfVzQ8lDqG","pdf",367717,6,1,11,"English","en",105,"# Risk Assessment\n## External debt distress risk\n## Overall public debt distress risk\n# Baseline and Shock Scenarios\n## Macroeconomic projections and financing strategy\n## Stress test design and assumptions\n# Figures and Indicators\n## External debt indicators (2020–30)\n## Public debt indicators (2020–30)","[{\"question\":\"What is the assessed risk level for external debt distress and overall debt distress in the analysis?\",\"answer\":\"Both the risk of external debt distress and the overall risk of debt distress are assessed as moderate.\"},{\"question\":\"What does the baseline scenario assume about Nicaragua’s fiscal policy?\",\"answer\":\"It assumes multi-year fiscal consolidation with permanent measures of at least 3 percent of GDP and unwinding COVID-19 temporary programs.\"},{\"question\":\"Under which scenario do debt burden indicators breach thresholds, and why?\",\"answer\":\"Under the most extreme shock scenario, the PV of public and publicly guaranteed external debt-to-GDP ratio and the PV of public debt-to-GDP ratio surpass thresholds over an extended period, including impacts from notably lower GDP growth and contingent liability shocks tied to cooperation with Venezuela.\"}]","Nicaragua - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - November 2020 | PDF",1784482708,28,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":88,"head_meta":90,"extra_data":92,"updated_unix":29},"nicaragua-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-november-2020","",{"@graph":37,"@context":87},[38,55,70],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,49,52],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":48},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":50,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":51},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":53,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":54},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/nicaragua-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-november-2020/109855/",4,{"url":53,"name":13,"@type":56,"author":57,"headline":13,"publisher":59,"fileFormat":62,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":63,"datePublished":64,"encodingFormat":62,"isAccessibleForFree":65,"interactionStatistic":66},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":58},"Person",{"url":42,"name":60,"@type":61},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-30","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":67,"interactionType":68,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":69},"ViewAction",{"@type":71,"mainEntity":72},"FAQPage",[73,79,83],{"name":74,"@type":75,"acceptedAnswer":76},"What is the assessed risk level for external debt distress and overall debt distress in the analysis?","Question",{"text":77,"@type":78},"Both the risk of external debt distress and the overall risk of debt distress are assessed as moderate.","Answer",{"name":80,"@type":75,"acceptedAnswer":81},"What does the baseline scenario assume about Nicaragua’s fiscal policy?",{"text":82,"@type":78},"It assumes multi-year fiscal consolidation with permanent measures of at least 3 percent of GDP and unwinding COVID-19 temporary programs.",{"name":84,"@type":75,"acceptedAnswer":85},"Under which scenario do debt burden indicators breach thresholds, and why?",{"text":86,"@type":78},"Under the most extreme shock scenario, the PV of public and publicly guaranteed external debt-to-GDP ratio and the PV of public debt-to-GDP ratio surpass thresholds over an extended period, including impacts from notably lower GDP growth and contingent liability shocks tied to cooperation with Venezuela.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":53,"og:type":89,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":60,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":91,"canonical":53},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":94},[95,99,103,107,112,116,121,124,129,132,136],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":96,"show_sort_weight":97,"slug":98},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":48,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":100,"show_sort_weight":101,"slug":102},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":54,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":104,"show_sort_weight":105,"slug":106},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":108,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":109,"show_sort_weight":110,"slug":111},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":113,"show_sort_weight":114,"slug":115},"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":117,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":118,"show_sort_weight":119,"slug":120},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":122,"slug":123},30,"research-report",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":126,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":128},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":127,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":130,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":131},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":133,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":134,"show_sort_weight":133,"slug":135},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":137,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":138,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":139},19,"General","general"]