[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111189-en":3,"doc-seo-111189-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":90},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111189,34359740700684,"Finn","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/1f400023980c374ae676?_k=1777273430885731487",8,"Research & Report","Nicaragua - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - Debt distress risk assessment","Nicaragua faces a moderate risk of external and overall debt distress, with some space to absorb shocks. Under the baseline scenario, key external debt indicators remain below thresholds, reflecting the concessional nature of external borrowing, while the present value of external debt-to-GDP can breach thresholds when combined shocks occur. Public debt-to-GDP stays under the benchmark in baseline but is vulnerable to growth shocks. The assessment highlights downside risks from external shocks and natural disasters, and stresses strengthening policy buffers amid expected limits on new concessional financing.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nOscar Calvo-Gonzalez and Manuela Francisco (IDA) and Ana Corbacho and Boileau Loko (IMF) .  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .  \n\n| NICARAGUA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Some space to absorb shocks |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nNicaragua remains at moderate risk of external and overall debt distress with some space to absorb shocks. 1 Under the baseline scenario, external debt burden indicators remain below the threshold reflecting the high concessional nature of Nicaragua’s external debt. However, the present value (PV) of external debt-to-GDP ratio breaches the threshold under a combination of shocks. Under the baseline scenario, the PV of the public debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to remain below the threshold. However, the PV of the public debt-to-GDP ratio is susceptible to growth shocks and breaches the benchmark under the most extreme scenario. Downside risks relate to vulnerability to external shocks and natural disasters. Strengthening policy buffers will be necessary as new concessional external financing is expected to remain limited which could exert fiscal pressures and adversely affect debt sustainability.  \n1 Nicaragua’s debt-carrying capacity remains assessed as medium. The Composite Index (CI) is estimated at 3.02 and is based on the 2022 World Bank’s CPIA and the October 2023 WEO.  \n1. Nicaragua’s public debt statistics are reported at the Consolidated Public Sector (CPS) level, excluding the social security system (INSS) .2 The public debt coverage used in this Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) includes the consolidated debt of the budgetary central government, local government, the state-owned enterprises guaranteed debt, and the Central Bank of Nicaragua (BCN, Text Table 1) .3 There is no non-guaranteed state-owned-enterprises’ debt recorded in Nicaragua.  \n2. The DSA is conducted on a residency basis. In the case of Nicaragua, there are no foreign holdings of local currency debt issued domestically (as in previous DSAs) . Debt data on all state and local governments , extra budgetary funds and non-guaranteed state-owned enterprises is not included. The authorities are receiving technical assistance from the IMF and support under the World Bank’s sustainable development finance policy (SDFP) on ongoing efforts to strengthen capabilities to improve debt transparency, widen the coverage of debt reporting and monitoring of other elements of the general government and SOEs.4 Consistent with previous DSAs since 2013, this DSA assumes the delivery of expected Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) debt relief by Non-Paris Club creditors that have yet to deliver it (see paragraph 5) .  \n\n|  |\n| --- |\n|  Subsectors of the public sector Check box \u003Cbr>\u003Cbr>1 Central government\u003Cbr>2 State and local government\u003Cbr>3 Other elements in the general government\u003Cbr>4 o/w: Social security fund\u003Cbr>5 o/w: Extra budgetary funds (EBFs)\u003Cbr>6 Guarantees (to other entities in the public and private sector, including to SOEs)\u003Cbr>7 Central bank (borrowed on behalf of the government)\u003Cbr>8 Non-guaranteed SOE debt\u003Cbr>X\u003Cbr>\u003Cbr>1 The country's coverage of public debt\u003Cbr>\u003Cbr>Used for the analysis Reasons for deviations from the default settings\u003Cbr>\u003Cbr>2 Other elements of the general government not captured in 1.\u003Cbr>4 PPP\u003Cbr>5 Financial market (the default value of 5 percent of GDP is the minimum value)\u003Cbr>The central government plus\u003Cbr>Default\u003Cbr>3 SoE's debt (guaranteed and not guaranteed by the government) 1/\u003Cbr>0\u003Cbr>\u003Cbr>Total (2+3+4+5) (in percent of GDP)\u003Cbr>X\u003Cbr>X\u003Cbr>X\u003Cbr>0 percent of GDP\u003Cbr>2 percent of GDP 2\u003Cbr>35 percent of PPP stock 2.2\u003Cbr>5 percent of GDP 5\u003Cbr>9.2\u003Cbr>social security, central bank, government-guaranteed","cbCaihNbzNrNAqut","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaihNbzNrNAqut","pdf",631731,1,20,"English","en",105,"# Risk of debt distress\n## External and overall risk ratings\n## Shock sensitivity and judgment\n# Debt indicators and projections\n## Baseline vs extreme scenarios\n## Public and external debt composition\n# Debt coverage and methodology\n## Consolidated public sector scope\n## Residency-based DSA assumptions\n# Policy implications","[{\"question\":\"What is Nicaragua’s overall risk of debt distress in the analysis?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis rates both external debt distress and overall debt distress as moderate.\"},{\"question\":\"Which indicators breach thresholds under combined or extreme shocks?\",\"answer\":\"The present value (PV) of the external debt-to-GDP ratio can breach the threshold under a combination of shocks, and the PV of the public debt-to-GDP ratio breaches under the most extreme scenario.\"},{\"question\":\"What are the main downside risks highlighted for debt sustainability?\",\"answer\":\"Downside risks relate to vulnerability to external shocks and natural disasters, and to limited new concessional external financing that could increase fiscal pressures.\"}]",1784489015,50,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":85,"head_meta":87,"extra_data":89,"updated_unix":27},"nicaragua-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":84},[36,53,67],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/nicaragua-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment/111189/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":61,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":62,"interactionStatistic":63},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":64,"interactionType":65,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":66},"ViewAction",{"@type":68,"mainEntity":69},"FAQPage",[70,76,80],{"name":71,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":73},"What is Nicaragua’s overall risk of debt distress in the analysis?","Question",{"text":74,"@type":75},"The analysis rates both external debt distress and overall debt distress as moderate.","Answer",{"name":77,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":78},"Which indicators breach thresholds under combined or extreme shocks?",{"text":79,"@type":75},"The present value (PV) of the external debt-to-GDP ratio can breach the threshold under a combination of shocks, and the PV of the public debt-to-GDP ratio breaches under the most extreme scenario.",{"name":81,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":82},"What are the main downside risks highlighted for debt sustainability?",{"text":83,"@type":75},"Downside risks relate to vulnerability to external shocks and natural disasters, and to limited new concessional external financing that could increase fiscal 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