[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111188-en":3,"doc-seo-111188-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":90},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111188,34359740700684,"Finn","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/1f400023980c374ae676?_k=1777273430885731487",8,"Research & Report","Nicaragua - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - Debt Distress Risk Assessment","Nicaragua faces a moderate risk of external and overall debt distress, with substantial space to absorb shocks. Under the baseline scenario, external and public debt burden indicators remain below relevant thresholds due to the concessional nature of external debt. A combined shock scenario can breach the threshold for the present value (PV) of external debt to GDP, while public debt is vulnerable to growth shocks under the most extreme conditions. Strengthening policy buffers is needed as new concessional financing becomes limited, potentially increasing fiscal pressures and weakening debt sustainability.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Oscar Calvo-Gonzalez (IDA), and Ana Corbacho and Jacques Miniane (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| NICARAGUA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Substantial space to absorb shocks |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nNicaragua remains at moderate risk of external and overall debt distress with substantial space to absorb shocks. 1 Under the baseline scenario, external debt burden indicators and the present values (PV) of the external and public debt to GDP ratios remain below the threshold reflecting the high concessional nature of Nicaragua’s external debt. However, under a combination of shocks, the PV of external debt to GDP ratio breaches the threshold, and the PV of public debt to GDP is vulnerable to growth shocks and breaches the benchmark under the most extreme scenario. Downside risks relate to vulnerability to external shocks and natural disasters. Strengthening policy buffers will be necessary as new concessional external financing continues to be limited which may increase fiscal pressures and negatively impact debt sustainability.  \n1. Nicaragua’s public debt statistics are reported at the consolidated public sector (CPS) level and the coverage under the baseline scenario is relatively broad. The public debt coverage used in this Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) includes the consolidated debt of the budgetary central  \n1 Nicaragua’s debt-carrying capacity remains assessed as strong. The Composite Index (CI) is estimated at 3.08 and is based on the 2023 World Bank’s CPIA and the October 2024 WEO.  \ngovernment, local government, the state-owned enterprises (SOEs) guaranteed debt, and the Central Bank of Nicaragua (BCN, Text Table 1) .2 There is no non-guaranteed state-owned-enterprises’ debt recorded in Nicaragua. Extra budgetary funds and non-guaranteed state-owned enterprises data is not included, the former due to lack of data and the latter because there is no non-guaranteed state-ownedenterprises’ debt recorded in Nicaragua (Text Table 1) . The authorities are receiving technical assistance from the IMF and support under the World Bank’s sustainable development finance policy (SDFP) on ongoing efforts to strengthen capabilities to improve debt transparency, widen the coverage of debt reporting and monitoring of other elements of the general government and SOEs, including broadening institutional coverage. Debt data from the social security system (INSS) is excluded, as the INSS does not borrow directly, and the central government debt to the INSS has been paid in full by end-2022.  \n2. The DSA is conducted on a residency basis. In the case of Nicaragua, there are no foreign holdings of local currency debt issued domestically (as in previous DSAs) . Consistent with previous DSAs since 2013, this DSA assumes the delivery of expected Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) debt relief by Non-Paris Club creditors that have yet to deliver it (see paragraph 6) .3  \n3. To account for lack in debt data coverage, a stress test on contingency liabilities is detailed in ¶17 .  \n|  | Subsectors of the public sector\u003Cbr>Central government\u003Cbr>State and local government\u003Cbr>Other elements in the general government\u003Cbr>o/w: Social security fund\u003Cbr>o/w: Extra budgetary funds (EBFs)\u003Cbr>Guarantees (to other entities in the public and private sector, including to SOEs)\u003Cbr>Central bank (borrowed on behalf of the government)\u003Cbr>Non-guaranteed SOE debt | Check box |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| 1\u003Cbr>2\u003Cbr>3\u003Cbr>4\u003Cbr>5\u003Cbr>6\u003Cbr>7\u003Cbr>8 |  | X\u003Cbr>X\u003Cbr>X\u003Cbr>X\u003Cbr>X |\n\nPublic debt coverage and the magnitude of the contingent liability tailored stress test  \n\n| 1 | The country's coverage of public debt The central, state","cbCaifY4ijEZwFWs","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaifY4ijEZwFWs","pdf",753205,1,23,"English","en",105,"# Risk assessment and baseline vs. shock scenarios\n## External and overall debt distress risk ratings\n## Conditions under which thresholds are breached\n# Debt coverage and methodology\n## Public debt coverage at consolidated public sector level\n## Debt-carrying capacity and Composite Index (CI)\n## Residency basis and HIPC relief assumptions\n# Stress testing and contingency liabilities\n## Tailored stress test for contingency liabilities","[{\"question\":\"What is Nicaragua’s assessed risk of debt distress?\",\"answer\":\"Nicaragua is assessed as facing a moderate risk of both external debt distress and overall debt distress.\"},{\"question\":\"How do debt indicators behave under the baseline scenario?\",\"answer\":\"Under the baseline scenario, the present values of external and public debt to GDP remain below thresholds, reflecting the high concessional nature of Nicaragua’s external debt.\"},{\"question\":\"Which scenarios can lead to breaches of debt thresholds?\",\"answer\":\"Under a combination of shocks, the PV of external debt to GDP can breach the threshold; public debt PV can breach the benchmark under the most extreme scenario driven by growth shocks.\"}]",1784489011,58,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":85,"head_meta":87,"extra_data":89,"updated_unix":27},"nicaragua-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":84},[36,53,67],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/nicaragua-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment/111188/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":61,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":62,"interactionStatistic":63},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":64,"interactionType":65,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":66},"ViewAction",{"@type":68,"mainEntity":69},"FAQPage",[70,76,80],{"name":71,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":73},"What is Nicaragua’s assessed risk of debt distress?","Question",{"text":74,"@type":75},"Nicaragua is assessed as facing a moderate risk of both external debt distress and overall debt distress.","Answer",{"name":77,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":78},"How do debt indicators behave under the baseline scenario?",{"text":79,"@type":75},"Under the baseline scenario, the present values of external and public debt to GDP remain below thresholds, reflecting the high concessional nature of Nicaragua’s external debt.",{"name":81,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":82},"Which scenarios can lead to breaches of debt thresholds?",{"text":83,"@type":75},"Under a combination of shocks, the PV of external debt to GDP can breach the threshold; public debt PV can breach the benchmark under the most extreme scenario driven by growth shocks.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":86,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":88,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":91},[92,96,100,104,109,114,119,122,127,130,134],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":93,"show_sort_weight":94,"slug":95},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":97,"show_sort_weight":98,"slug":99},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":101,"show_sort_weight":102,"slug":103},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":105,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":106,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":108},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":110,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":111,"show_sort_weight":112,"slug":113},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":115,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":116,"show_sort_weight":117,"slug":118},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":120,"slug":121},30,"research-report",{"id":123,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":124,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":126},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":128,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":129},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":131,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":132,"show_sort_weight":131,"slug":133},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":135,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":136,"show_sort_weight":105,"slug":137},19,"General","general"]