[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":3,"doc-seo-587634-105":59,"doc-detail-587634-en":130},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",[7,13,18,23,28,33,38,43,48,51,55],{"id":8,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":10,"show_sort_weight":11,"slug":12},1,"Document","Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":14,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":15,"show_sort_weight":16,"slug":17},2,"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":19,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":20,"show_sort_weight":21,"slug":22},4,"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":24,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":25,"show_sort_weight":26,"slug":27},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":29,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":30,"show_sort_weight":31,"slug":32},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":34,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":35,"show_sort_weight":36,"slug":37},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":39,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":40,"show_sort_weight":41,"slug":42},8,"Research & Report",30,"research-report",{"id":44,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":45,"show_sort_weight":46,"slug":47},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":49,"show_sort_weight":46,"slug":50},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":53,"show_sort_weight":52,"slug":54},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":56,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":57,"show_sort_weight":24,"slug":58},19,"General","general",{"code":4,"msg":60,"data":61},"ok",{"site_id":62,"language":63,"slug":64,"title":65,"keywords":66,"description":67,"schema_data":68,"social_meta":123,"head_meta":125,"extra_data":127,"updated_unix":129},105,"en","navigating-the-enrollment-cliff-in-higher-education","Navigating the Enrollment Cliff in Higher Education","","Trellis Research Spotlight Report Brief examines why U.S. higher education may face an “Enrollment Cliff” beginning around 2025, while also explaining historical context and why earlier demographic declines did not reduce enrollment as sharply. It outlines current fertility and high-school completion dynamics, student application and enrollment rates, and projected shifts by region. It then discusses forward-looking responses, including retention strategies, outreach, streamlining the applicant-to-student pipeline, and leveraging emerging labor-market aligned programs.",{"@graph":69,"@context":122},[70,84,105],{"@type":71,"itemListElement":72},"BreadcrumbList",[73,77,79,82],{"item":74,"name":75,"@type":76,"position":8},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":78,"name":9,"@type":76,"position":14},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/",{"item":80,"name":40,"@type":76,"position":81},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":83,"name":65,"@type":76,"position":19},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/navigating-the-enrollment-cliff-in-higher-education/587634/",{"url":83,"name":65,"@type":85,"image":86,"author":91,"headline":65,"publisher":94,"fileFormat":97,"inLanguage":63,"description":67,"dateModified":98,"datePublished":99,"encodingFormat":97,"isAccessibleForFree":100,"interactionStatistic":101},"DigitalDocument",{"url":87,"@type":88,"width":89,"height":90},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/navigating-the-enrollment-cliff-in-higher-education/587634.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":92,"@type":93},"นรินทร์","Person",{"url":74,"name":95,"@type":96},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-10-29","2026-10-15",true,{"@type":102,"interactionType":103,"userInteractionCount":29},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":104},"ViewAction",{"@type":106,"mainEntity":107},"FAQPage",[108,114,118],{"name":109,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":111},"What is the “Enrollment Cliff” in higher education?","Question",{"text":112,"@type":113},"It describes expectations that changing demographics will cause a dramatic decline in college enrollment starting in 2025.","Answer",{"name":115,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":116},"Why didn’t a similar enrollment cliff occur after earlier demographic declines?",{"text":117,"@type":113},"High-school graduate counts fell, but college enrollment rates rose due to factors such as deindustrialization and job changes, and more women began attending college.",{"name":119,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":120},"What strategies does the report recommend for colleges to adapt?",{"text":121,"@type":113},"It highlights student retention efforts, outreach and student success initiatives to reduce stop-outs, streamlining the applicant-to-student process, and promoting programs aligned with a changing labor market.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":83,"og:type":124,"og:title":65,"og:site_name":95,"og:description":67},"article",{"robots":126,"canonical":83},"index,follow",{"doc_id":128,"site_id":62},587634,1793108562,{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":131},{"doc_id":128,"user_id":132,"nickname":92,"user_avatar":133,"doc_module":4,"category_id":39,"category_name":40,"doc_title":65,"doc_description":67,"doc_content":134,"file_id":135,"file_url":136,"file_type":137,"file_size":138,"view_count":29,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":8,"is_downloadable":8,"audit_status":8,"page_count":19,"language":139,"language_code":63,"site_id":62,"html_lang":63,"table_of_contents":140,"faqs":141,"seo_title":142,"seo_description":67,"update_tm":143,"read_time":52,"preview_page_count":4},2336475104957,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/22000c4c6bd8a5076e1?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1787554080175789136","SPOTLIGHT REPORT BRIEF  \nTRELLIS RESEARCH | JUNE 2023  \nNavigating the Enrollment Cliff in Higher Education  \nAnthony Schuette June 2023  \nRecommended Citation: Schuette, A. (2023) . Navigating the Enrollment Cliff in Higher Education. Trellis Company.  \nThe Enrollment Cliff  \nRecent discussions on enrollment in higher education have centered around the “Enrollment Cliff”. The notion holds that due to changing demographics, colleges and universities across the U. S. will see a dramatic decline in enrollment starting in 2025. But how did we arrive at this point? And what can be done about it?  \nThe United States College and University Enrollment Problem: An Overview  \nAmid financial stresses during the Great Recession, which took place from late-2007 to mid-2009, and other societal changes around the same time-families began having fewer children. Research has identified the association  between recessions and fertility declines in developed nations. It’s a trend that can be seen throughout modern  U. S. history, and in particular the 1980s. In the 80s, a similar enrollment cliff was being prepared for by  \npost-secondary institutions across the country. The cliff never came. As explained by Vox: “the number of highschool graduates declined, from 3.1 million in 1976 to  \n2.5 million in 1994. But college enrollment rates actually increased driven by deindustrialization and the collapse of well-paying blue-collar jobs.” Women also began attending college in higher numbers. So, while the number of students graduating high school declined, the proportion of these students seeking higher education increased, preventing an enrollment cliff. In 2025, thereis unlikely to be such an increase in demand for college. While throughout history birth rate decreases are usually temporarily tied to poor economies, modern U. S. birthrates have continued to decline, even as the economy rebounded in the 2010s (Figure 1) .  \nFigure 1: Crude Birth Rate for the United States, Births per 1,000 People, Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted  \nSource: FRED  \nTRELLIS RESEARCH SPOTLIGHT REPORT BRIEF  \nU.S. fertility is now on par with other comparably developed  nations, suggesting it is unlikely to increase in the near future. What’s more, more students than ever are  completing high school, and the proportion of these students immediately enrolling in college—while dipping slightly in recent years—has remained just under 70% for  the last decade. National Student Clearinghouse data confirms a slight (1 .7%) decrease in undergraduate enrollment from Spring 2023 relative to Spring 2021. For these reasons, it is predicted that U. S. colleges have hit the limit of how many high school graduates they can enroll on their campuses. The emergence of online degrees, pulling students away from campuses, complicates this further. Nathan Grawe, an economist at Carleton College in Minnesota, forecasts the college-going population to  drop by 15 percentage points between 2025 and 2029 and decline marginally in the years that follow. In addition to his work on a macro scale, Grawe also  forecasts enrollment changes at the regional level (Figure 2) . For instance, Grawe predicts that enrollment on the West Coast will in fact increase by around  \n7.5 percent, while many Midwest and East Coast  \nstates will see decreases in excess of 15 percent. His work regionally demonstrates that the costs and benefits of a declining college-age population are not evenly distributed. One group that stands to benefit is college students themselves. As Grawe explained to US News & World Report: “Students are going to be a hot commodity, a scarce resource…It’s going to be harder during this period for institutions to aggressively increase tuition. It may be a time period when it’s a little easier on parents and students who are negotiating over the financial aid package.” Furthermore, students may be able to attend selective institutions that were previously inaccessible to them, but are now fo","cbCaii1dsuAv7kAr","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaii1dsuAv7kAr","pdf",478083,"English","# The Enrollment Cliff\n## The United States College and University Enrollment Problem: An Overview\n# How to Move Forward?","[{\"question\":\"What is the “Enrollment Cliff” in higher education?\",\"answer\":\"It describes expectations that changing demographics will cause a dramatic decline in college enrollment starting in 2025.\"},{\"question\":\"Why didn’t a similar enrollment cliff occur after earlier demographic declines?\",\"answer\":\"High-school graduate counts fell, but college enrollment rates rose due to factors such as deindustrialization and job changes, and more women began attending college.\"},{\"question\":\"What strategies does the report recommend for colleges to adapt?\",\"answer\":\"It highlights student retention efforts, outreach and student success initiatives to reduce stop-outs, streamlining the applicant-to-student process, and promoting programs aligned with a changing labor market.\"}]","Navigating the Enrollment Cliff in Higher Education | PDF",1792062455]