[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-109900-en":3,"doc-seo-109900-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":92},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},109900,1374391974564,"Clementine","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/14000253aa45c000a9e?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1779874745381141002",8,"Research & Report","Myanmar - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - February 2020","Myanmar’s risks of external debt distress and overall debt distress remain low, while the debt outlook stays positive despite notable vulnerabilities. Key risks include a slowdown in FDI and exports, spillovers from natural disasters, and larger-than-expected contingent liabilities from banking-sector shocks or accelerated PPPs. Debt sustainability depends on expanding exports, using concessional financing, strengthening policy buffers, and improving monitoring of fiscal commitments and contingent liabilities.","Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION  \nINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nMYANMAR  \nJoint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis  \nFebruary 2020  \nPrepared jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA)  \nand the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \nApproved by Marcello Estevão (IDA), Kenneth H. Kang and Johannes Wiegand (IMF)  \nMyanmar: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis  \n\n| Risk of external debt distress | Low |\n| --- | --- |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Low |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Not applicable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nMyanmar’s risks of external debt and overall debt distress continue to be assessed as low. While the overall debt outlook remains positive—several vulnerabilities exist. These include a slowdown in FDI, exports, the aftermath from a natural disaster or from larger than expected contingent liabilities arising from the banking system or from a ramp up in PPPs. Increasing the export base, maximizing concessional loans and improving policy buffers would help keep the debt burden contained. Progress on the Rakhine state crisis has been slow and is affecting the outlook for external inflows. Limited monitoring of fiscal commitments and contingent liabilities poses significant fiscal risks. Infrastructure projects with high returns should be targeted keeping in mind that even a moderate increase in the deficit implies a recourse to central bank financing. Debt management capacity needs strengthening, and the authorities should remain vigilant about borrowing that leads to a rapid debt buildup. Strengthening the business environment and governance, including in the natural resource sector would raise the investment outlook and potential growth.  \nPUBLIC DEBT COVERAGE AND COUNTRY CLASSIFICATION  \n1. The coverage of public sector debt used in the DSA is consolidated public sector debt, government-guaranteed debt and social security funds. SOE debt is on lent and is therefore included in the coverage of public external debt.1 There is no outstanding debt to the IMF.  \nCoverage of Public Sector Debt  \n\n| 1 | Central government | X |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| 2 | State and local government | X |\n| 3 | Other elements in the general government |  |\n| 4 | Of which : Social security fund | X |\n| 5 | Of which : Extra budgetary funds (EBFs) |  |\n| 6 | Guarantees (to other entities in the public and private sector, including to SOEs) | X |\n| 7 | Central bank (borrowed on behalf of the government) |  |\n| 8 | Non-guaranteed SOE debt |  |\n\nSource: IMF staff estimates.  \n2. The LIC DSF determines the debt sustainability thresholds by calculating a composite  \nindicator (CI). The CI, based on a weighted average of several factors such as the country’s real GDP growth, remittances, international reserves, and world growth and the CPIA score.2 The calculation of the CI is based on 10-year averages ofthe variables, across 5 years of historical data and 5 years of projection, and the corresponding CPIA. For Myanmar, the final debt carrying capacity classification for this DSA is medium. A summary of the thresholds used in the exercise are included in the table alongside.  \nApplicable Thresholds  \n\n| APPLICABLE |  | APPLICABLE |  |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- |\n| EXTERNAL debt burden thresholds |  | TOTAL public debt benchmark |  |\n| PV of debt, in percent of Exports | 180 | PV of total public debt, in percent of GDP | 55 |\n| GDP | 40 |  |  |\n| Debt service, in percent of |  |  |  |\n| Exports | 15 |  |  |\n| Revenue | 18 |  |  |\n\nSource: IMF staff estimates.  \n1 The 2017 public debt management Law states that SOES can borrow directly from state-owned banks or benefit of on lending from the government. By law, SOE’s cannot borrow directly from external creditors.  \n2 The details on the methodology can be found in the new LIC-DSF guidance note: [https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Policy](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/P","cbCaiszqowKm69u5","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiszqowKm69u5","pdf",466685,4,1,19,"English","en",105,"# Risk assessment and outlook\n## External debt distress risk\n## Overall debt distress risk\n# Coverage of public debt and country classification\n## Public sector debt coverage in the DSA\n## LIC-DSF composite indicator and thresholds\n# Background on debt\n## Public debt structure and estimates\n## Private external debt and total external debt\n## Financing sources and creditor composition","[{\"question\":\"What is the overall risk assessment for Myanmar’s debt distress?\",\"answer\":\"Both external debt distress risk and overall debt distress risk are assessed as low.\"},{\"question\":\"Which vulnerabilities could affect Myanmar’s debt outlook despite the positive baseline?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis highlights vulnerabilities such as slower FDI and exports, impacts from natural disasters, and larger-than-expected contingent liabilities from the banking system or PPP scale-up.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the analysis define coverage for debt used in the DSA?\",\"answer\":\"The DSA uses consolidated public sector debt, government-guaranteed debt, and social security funds; SOE debt on-lent is included in covered external debt, and there is no outstanding debt to the IMF.\"}]","Myanmar - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - February 2020 | PDF",1784482939,48,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":87,"head_meta":89,"extra_data":91,"updated_unix":29},"myanmar-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-february-2020","",{"@graph":37,"@context":86},[38,54,69],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,49,52],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":48},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":50,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":51},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":53,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/myanmar-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-february-2020/109900/",{"url":53,"name":13,"@type":55,"author":56,"headline":13,"publisher":58,"fileFormat":61,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":62,"datePublished":63,"encodingFormat":61,"isAccessibleForFree":64,"interactionStatistic":65},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":57},"Person",{"url":42,"name":59,"@type":60},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-30","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":66,"interactionType":67,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":68},"ViewAction",{"@type":70,"mainEntity":71},"FAQPage",[72,78,82],{"name":73,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":75},"What is the overall risk assessment for Myanmar’s debt distress?","Question",{"text":76,"@type":77},"Both external debt distress risk and overall debt distress risk are assessed as low.","Answer",{"name":79,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":80},"Which vulnerabilities could affect Myanmar’s debt outlook despite the positive baseline?",{"text":81,"@type":77},"The analysis highlights vulnerabilities such as slower FDI and exports, impacts from natural disasters, and larger-than-expected contingent liabilities from the banking system or PPP scale-up.",{"name":83,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":84},"How does the analysis define coverage for debt used in the DSA?",{"text":85,"@type":77},"The DSA uses consolidated public sector debt, government-guaranteed debt, and social security funds; SOE debt on-lent is included in covered external debt, and there is no outstanding debt to the IMF.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":53,"og:type":88,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":59,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":90,"canonical":53},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":93},[94,98,102,106,111,116,121,124,129,132,136],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":95,"show_sort_weight":96,"slug":97},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":48,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":99,"show_sort_weight":100,"slug":101},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":103,"show_sort_weight":104,"slug":105},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":107,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":112,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":113,"show_sort_weight":114,"slug":115},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":117,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":118,"show_sort_weight":119,"slug":120},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":122,"slug":123},30,"research-report",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":126,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":128},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":127,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":130,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":131},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":133,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":134,"show_sort_weight":133,"slug":135},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":22,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":138},"General","general"]