[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":3,"doc-seo-661282-105":59,"doc-detail-661282-en":130},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",[7,13,18,23,28,33,38,43,48,51,55],{"id":8,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":10,"show_sort_weight":11,"slug":12},1,"Document","Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":14,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":15,"show_sort_weight":16,"slug":17},2,"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":19,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":20,"show_sort_weight":21,"slug":22},4,"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":24,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":25,"show_sort_weight":26,"slug":27},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":29,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":30,"show_sort_weight":31,"slug":32},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":34,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":35,"show_sort_weight":36,"slug":37},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":39,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":40,"show_sort_weight":41,"slug":42},8,"Research & Report",30,"research-report",{"id":44,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":45,"show_sort_weight":46,"slug":47},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":49,"show_sort_weight":46,"slug":50},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":53,"show_sort_weight":52,"slug":54},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":56,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":57,"show_sort_weight":24,"slug":58},19,"General","general",{"code":4,"msg":60,"data":61},"ok",{"site_id":62,"language":63,"slug":64,"title":65,"keywords":66,"description":67,"schema_data":68,"social_meta":123,"head_meta":125,"extra_data":127,"updated_unix":129},105,"en","monthly-macro-insights-august-2026","Monthly Macro Insights - August 2026","","Monthly Macro Insights - August 2026 analyzes how the second half of 2026 is shaped by opposing forces in global growth, including technological innovation and business investment versus geopolitical risks, trade fragmentation, and higher long-term interest rates. It highlights rising bond yields amid resilient activity, the implications of fiscal deficits and persistent inflation, and the role of AI-driven capital intensity in lifting the cost of capital. The note also examines Japan’s yield normalization, potential portfolio shifts, and the Fed’s July communication framework under Chairman Kevin Warsh.",{"@graph":69,"@context":122},[70,84,105],{"@type":71,"itemListElement":72},"BreadcrumbList",[73,77,79,82],{"item":74,"name":75,"@type":76,"position":8},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":78,"name":9,"@type":76,"position":14},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/",{"item":80,"name":40,"@type":76,"position":81},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":83,"name":65,"@type":76,"position":19},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/monthly-macro-insights-august-2026/661282/",{"url":83,"name":65,"@type":85,"image":86,"author":91,"headline":65,"publisher":94,"fileFormat":97,"inLanguage":63,"description":67,"dateModified":98,"datePublished":99,"encodingFormat":97,"isAccessibleForFree":100,"interactionStatistic":101},"DigitalDocument",{"url":87,"@type":88,"width":89,"height":90},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/monthly-macro-insights-august-2026/661282.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":92,"@type":93},"nayy☆","Person",{"url":74,"name":95,"@type":96},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-10-30","2026-10-28",true,{"@type":102,"interactionType":103,"userInteractionCount":19},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":104},"ViewAction",{"@type":106,"mainEntity":107},"FAQPage",[108,114,118],{"name":109,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":111},"What are the main forces pulling the global economy in opposite directions in mid-2026?","Question",{"text":112,"@type":113},"Technological innovation and business investment create strong tailwinds, while geopolitical tensions, trade fragmentation, and rising long-term interest rates create a more challenging backdrop.","Answer",{"name":115,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":116},"Why are long-term sovereign bond yields rising across most advanced economies?",{"text":117,"@type":113},"Investors worry that central banks may keep policy rates elevated longer due to trade barriers, geopolitical disruptions, and persistent inflation, while large fiscal deficits increase sovereign debt supply for markets to absorb.",{"name":119,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":120},"How does the Fed’s communications framework under Chairman Kevin Warsh affect markets?",{"text":121,"@type":113},"Warsh reduces reliance on forward guidance and shortens communications to focus on current conditions, leaving markets less able to assess the reaction function and infer the future path of interest rates.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":83,"og:type":124,"og:title":65,"og:site_name":95,"og:description":67},"article",{"robots":126,"canonical":83},"index,follow",{"doc_id":128,"site_id":62},661282,1793162369,{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":131},{"doc_id":128,"user_id":132,"nickname":92,"user_avatar":133,"doc_module":4,"category_id":39,"category_name":40,"doc_title":65,"doc_description":67,"doc_content":134,"file_id":135,"file_url":136,"file_type":137,"file_size":138,"view_count":19,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":8,"is_downloadable":8,"audit_status":8,"page_count":34,"language":139,"language_code":63,"site_id":62,"html_lang":63,"table_of_contents":140,"faqs":141,"seo_title":142,"seo_description":67,"update_tm":129,"read_time":143},962090893153,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_9964176cb1d06d4a9deccf72a44ae3dc","Monthly Macro Insights—August 2026  \nMarc-Antoine Collard  \nChief Economist – Director of macroeconomic research  \nAs the second half of 2026 gets underway, the global economy is being pulled in opposite directions. The powerful tailwinds generated by technological innovation and business investment are colliding with a more challenging backdrop of geopolitical tensions, trade fragmentation and rising long-term interest rates.  \nRising yields amid resilient growth  \nGeopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain a source of uncertainty for energy marketsand global supply chains, while President Trump's renewed tariff agenda is raising trade barriers and weighing on business confidence. Although the direct economic impact of these measures has so far been relatively limited, the risk of further trade fragmentation remains an important concern for the global outlook.  \nAt the same time, a powerful counterweight continues to support economic activity, particularly in the U.S. Investment linked to artificial intelligence (AI) remains exceptionally strong, helping to sustain corporate profits, equity markets and business spending even as other sectors face a more challenging environment. While it is still too early to conclude that AI is generating a broad-based productivity revolution, the sector has become one of the principal engines of global growth and investor optimism.  \nMonthly Macro Insights —August 2026 1  \nAnother major development in recent months has been the sharp rise in long-term sovereign bond yields across most advanced economies. Several factors have contributed to this trend. First, investors have become increasingly concerned that trade barriers, geopolitical disruptions and persistent inflationary pressures could force central banks to keep policy rates elevated for longer than previously anticipated. Second, governments continue to run large fiscal deficits and issue substantial amounts of debt, increasing the supply of sovereign bonds that markets must absorb. Concerns over fiscal sustainability have become particularly visible in the U.S., although similar dynamics are evident across many advanced economies.  \nA third factor is the growing recognition that the next phase of economic growth may be unusually capital intensive. The development and deployment of AI require massive investment in data centres, semiconductors, energy infrastructure and digital networks. As competition for capital intensifies between governments financing persistent deficitsand private firms funding AI-related projects, the equilibrium cost of capital may rise structurally. In this sense, the AI revolution may not only boost productivity growth overtime, but also contribute to upward pressure on long-term real interest rates by increasing demand for investment capital.  \nThe rise in Japanese government bond yields deserves particular attention because of its potential implications for global financial stability. For decades, Japan's exceptionally low interest rates encouraged domestic investors to allocate large amounts of capital abroad, making Japanese institutions key providers of liquidity to international financial markets. As Japanese yields move higher, investors may increasingly choose to repatriate capital, reducing demand for foreign assets, including U.S. Treasuries and European government bonds. Such a shift could amplify upward pressure on global long-term interest rates and tighten financial conditions worldwide. More broadly, the normalization of Japanese monetary conditions marks an important transition for a global financial system that has long relied on Japan as a source of inexpensive funding. Although the adjustment has so far been gradual, a faster-than-expected increase in Japanese yields could trigger significant portfolio reallocations, increase market volatility and expose vulnerabilities among highly leveraged investors and financial institutions.  \nMonthly Macro Insights —August 2026 2  \nWarsh’s communi","cbCaiqygC5qZhiqT","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiqygC5qZhiqT","pdf",2823418,"English","# Rising yields amid resilient growth\n## Geopolitical tensions and trade barriers\n## AI investment and growth support\n# Drivers of long-term sovereign bond yield increases\n## Elevated policy rates and inflation risks\n## Fiscal deficits and debt issuance\n## Capital intensity and cost of capital\n# Japan’s bond yields and global financial stability\n## Repatriation and liquidity effects\n## Market volatility and vulnerabilities\n# Warsh’s communication gamble\n## Changes to forward guidance and policy statements\n## Market interpretation and reaction-function uncertainty","[{\"question\":\"What are the main forces pulling the global economy in opposite directions in mid-2026?\",\"answer\":\"Technological innovation and business investment create strong tailwinds, while geopolitical tensions, trade fragmentation, and rising long-term interest rates create a more challenging backdrop.\"},{\"question\":\"Why are long-term sovereign bond yields rising across most advanced economies?\",\"answer\":\"Investors worry that central banks may keep policy rates elevated longer due to trade barriers, geopolitical disruptions, and persistent inflation, while large fiscal deficits increase sovereign debt supply for markets to absorb.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the Fed’s communications framework under Chairman Kevin Warsh affect markets?\",\"answer\":\"Warsh reduces reliance on forward guidance and shortens communications to focus on current conditions, leaving markets less able to assess the reaction function and infer the future path of interest rates.\"}]","Monthly Macro Insights - August 2026 | PDF",18]