[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-108529-en":3,"doc-seo-108529-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":93},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},108529,8796095462418,"Noah","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/80000253c1241d02b47?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1778826106357471780",8,"Research & Report","Models used in the macro chapter and additional results - A background note for the Peru CCDR","Models used in the macro chapter and additional results describe technical frameworks applied in the Peru CCDR to assess climate-related economic impacts and policy implications. The macroeconomic and fiscal model (MFMod) generates country forecasts and simulates policy scenarios, calibrated for Peru and augmented with climate modules covering fishery and primary sectors, labor productivity under heat stress, and capital damages from flooding. The note also presents the multi-regional input-output tool and the CPAT climate policy assessment tool, with additional Peru-specific results and references to underlying data and methodology.","| \u003Cbr>Authorized\u003Cbr> |\n| --- |\n| ic Disclosure\u003Cbr> |\n| Pub l |\n| sure Authorized\u003Cbr>\u003Cbr> |\n| Pub l ic Disclo\u003Cbr> |\n| thorized\u003Cbr>\u003Cbr>MODELS USED IN THE MACRO CHAPTER AND ADDITIONAL |\n| Disc losure Au\u003Cbr> RESULTS: A BACKGROUND |\n| Public\u003Cbr>\u003Cbr>NOTE ON PERU\u003Cbr> |\n| Authorized\u003Cbr> |\n| b l ic Disclosure\u003Cbr>\u003Cbr> |\n| Pu\u003Cbr> |\n|  |\n| \u003Cbr>November 3rd, 2022 |\n\nTable of Contents  \n1. Macroeconomic and fiscal model (MFMod) ..............................................................3  \n2. The Multi-Regional Input-Output (MRIO) tool.............................................................4  \n2.1. Description of the model ...................................................................................................4  \n2.2. Additional results for Peru CCDR .......................................................................................5  \n3. CPAT: The Climate Policy Assessment Tool ...............................................................8  \n3.1. Description of the model ...................................................................................................8  \n1.1.1. Why carbon pricing? .....................................................................................................................8  \n1.1.2. Summary of the methodology ......................................................................................................8  \n3.2. Additional results for Peru CCDR .......................................................................................9  \nReferences ........................................................................................................................ 16  \nModels used in the macro chapter and additional results: A background note for the Peru CCDR  \nFrancis Dennig, Ira Dorband, Paulina Schulz-Antipa  \n1. Macroeconomic and fiscal model (MFMod)  \nMFMod is the World Bank’s macroeconomic and fiscal model, consisting of individual country models for 181 countries. The models (i) generate country forecasts and (ii) simulate various policies. Each model has a similar structure and functional form , with variation reflecting data availability and economic specialization (notably for oil exporters) . Although the functional forms are similar, the parameters are country-specific and estimated at the country level. Forecasts across countries are livelinked, with the export market growth of each country calculated as a trade-weighted average of imports of each of its trading partners. Remittance inflows and outflows are balanced across countries through a similar mechanism. Other cross-country linkages come through the real effective exchange rate and export and import prices, which are a function of world commodity prices and local cost considerations. The technical description of the framework can be found in Burns et al. (2019) .  \nPeru’s CCDR uses the MFMod framework, calibrated for Peru and augmented with a climate change module. The model disaggregates GDP into services, industry, fishery, and non-fishery primary sector. Climate impacts are quantified separately for the fishery and non-fishery primary sector based on estimates from IDB and CEPAL (2014) . The climate change module also estimates impacts on labor productivity from heat stress based on UNDP (2016) and capital damages from flooding based on Desai et al. (2015) . All impacts were estimated for two possible climate futures: RCP2 .6 and RCP 8.5.  \nNatural hazards such as floods of varying intensities are already causing economic damage in the current climate. It is not possible to predict in advance when these hazards occur or how damaging they are going to be, but the literature quantifies loss-exceedance curves, which capture the probabilities of events causing different amounts of damage. We performed a probabilistic analysis of the impacts based on the analysis in Burns et al. (2021) . The exceedance curve was calculated based on historical events reported in the CATDAT database (Daniell et al. 201","cbCaisc4fg8DzvZk","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaisc4fg8DzvZk","pdf",619851,5,1,18,"English","en",105,"# Macroeconomic and fiscal model (MFMod)\n## The Multi-Regional Input-Output (MRIO) tool\n### Description of the model\n### Additional results for Peru CCDR\n## CPAT: The Climate Policy Assessment Tool\n### Description of the model\n### Why carbon pricing?\n### Summary of the methodology\n### Additional results for Peru CCDR\n# References","[{\"question\":\"What is the MFMod macroeconomic and fiscal model and how is it used for Peru’s CCDR?\",\"answer\":\"MFMod is the World Bank’s macroeconomic and fiscal model that generates country forecasts and simulates policies. For Peru’s CCDR, it is calibrated for Peru and augmented with a climate change module that quantifies impacts across disaggregated GDP sectors.\"},{\"question\":\"How does MFMod estimate climate impacts in Peru’s economy?\",\"answer\":\"The climate module quantifies impacts separately for the fishery and non-fishery primary sector using estimates from IDB and CEPAL. It also estimates labor productivity effects from heat stress and capital damages from flooding for two climate futures (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5).\"},{\"question\":\"What roles do MRIO and CPAT play in the Peru CCDR modeling work?\",\"answer\":\"The MRIO tool analyzes sectoral output, labor demand, and cross-border competitiveness effects from carbon fiscal reforms, including induced structural change. CPAT evaluates climate policy using a specific framework that includes a rationale for carbon pricing and a description of the methodology, with additional Peru-focused results.\"}]","Models used in the macro chapter and additional results - A background note for the Peru CCDR | PDF",1784472095,45,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":88,"head_meta":90,"extra_data":92,"updated_unix":29},"models-used-in-the-macro-chapter-and-additional-results-a-background-note-for-the-peru-ccdr","",{"@graph":37,"@context":87},[38,55,70],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,49,52],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":48},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":50,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":51},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":53,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":54},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/models-used-in-the-macro-chapter-and-additional-results-a-background-note-for-the-peru-ccdr/108529/",4,{"url":53,"name":13,"@type":56,"author":57,"headline":13,"publisher":59,"fileFormat":62,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":63,"datePublished":64,"encodingFormat":62,"isAccessibleForFree":65,"interactionStatistic":66},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":58},"Person",{"url":42,"name":60,"@type":61},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-31","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":67,"interactionType":68,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":69},"ViewAction",{"@type":71,"mainEntity":72},"FAQPage",[73,79,83],{"name":74,"@type":75,"acceptedAnswer":76},"What is the MFMod macroeconomic and fiscal model and how is it used for Peru’s CCDR?","Question",{"text":77,"@type":78},"MFMod is the World Bank’s macroeconomic and fiscal model that generates country forecasts and simulates policies. For Peru’s CCDR, it is calibrated for Peru and augmented with a climate change module that quantifies impacts across disaggregated GDP sectors.","Answer",{"name":80,"@type":75,"acceptedAnswer":81},"How does MFMod estimate climate impacts in Peru’s economy?",{"text":82,"@type":78},"The climate module quantifies impacts separately for the fishery and non-fishery primary sector using estimates from IDB and CEPAL. It also estimates labor productivity effects from heat stress and capital damages from flooding for two climate futures (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5).",{"name":84,"@type":75,"acceptedAnswer":85},"What roles do MRIO and CPAT play in the Peru CCDR modeling work?",{"text":86,"@type":78},"The MRIO tool analyzes sectoral output, labor demand, and cross-border competitiveness effects from carbon fiscal reforms, including induced structural change. CPAT evaluates climate policy using a specific framework that includes a rationale for carbon pricing and a description of the methodology, with additional Peru-focused results.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":53,"og:type":89,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":60,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":91,"canonical":53},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":94},[95,99,103,107,111,116,121,124,129,132,136],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":96,"show_sort_weight":97,"slug":98},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":48,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":100,"show_sort_weight":101,"slug":102},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":54,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":104,"show_sort_weight":105,"slug":106},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":112,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":113,"show_sort_weight":114,"slug":115},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":117,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":118,"show_sort_weight":119,"slug":120},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":122,"slug":123},30,"research-report",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":126,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":128},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":127,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":130,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":131},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":133,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":134,"show_sort_weight":133,"slug":135},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":137,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":138,"show_sort_weight":20,"slug":139},19,"General","general"]