[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":3,"doc-seo-321739-105":59,"doc-detail-321739-en":131},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",[7,13,18,23,28,33,38,43,48,51,55],{"id":8,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":10,"show_sort_weight":11,"slug":12},1,"Document","Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":14,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":15,"show_sort_weight":16,"slug":17},2,"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":19,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":20,"show_sort_weight":21,"slug":22},4,"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":24,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":25,"show_sort_weight":26,"slug":27},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":29,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":30,"show_sort_weight":31,"slug":32},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":34,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":35,"show_sort_weight":36,"slug":37},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":39,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":40,"show_sort_weight":41,"slug":42},8,"Research & Report",30,"research-report",{"id":44,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":45,"show_sort_weight":46,"slug":47},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":49,"show_sort_weight":46,"slug":50},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":53,"show_sort_weight":52,"slug":54},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":56,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":57,"show_sort_weight":24,"slug":58},19,"General","general",{"code":4,"msg":60,"data":61},"ok",{"site_id":62,"language":63,"slug":64,"title":65,"keywords":66,"description":67,"schema_data":68,"social_meta":124,"head_meta":126,"extra_data":128,"updated_unix":130},105,"en","mirrormirror-whos-the-best-forecaster-of-them-all","Mirror,Mirror, Who's the Best Forecaster of Them All?","","Analyzes whether economists can consistently outperform the consensus when forecasting U.S. real GDP growth and CPI inflation. Using year-ahead predictions from 1983 onward (Livingston Survey), it finds limited evidence of sustained superior forecasting over time. It evaluates forecast accuracy via proximity to realized outcomes and via root mean squared error (RMSE), then examines how often forecasters repeat above-median success, concluding that beating the median prediction reliably is difficult.",{"@graph":69,"@context":123},[70,84,106],{"@type":71,"itemListElement":72},"BreadcrumbList",[73,77,79,82],{"item":74,"name":75,"@type":76,"position":8},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":78,"name":9,"@type":76,"position":14},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/",{"item":80,"name":40,"@type":76,"position":81},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":83,"name":65,"@type":76,"position":19},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/mirrormirror-whos-the-best-forecaster-of-them-all/321739/",{"url":83,"name":65,"@type":85,"image":86,"author":91,"headline":65,"publisher":94,"fileFormat":97,"inLanguage":63,"description":67,"dateModified":98,"datePublished":99,"encodingFormat":97,"isAccessibleForFree":100,"interactionStatistic":101},"DigitalDocument",{"url":87,"@type":88,"width":89,"height":90},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/mirrormirror-whos-the-best-forecaster-of-them-all/321739.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":92,"@type":93},"Ivy","Person",{"url":74,"name":95,"@type":96},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-10-27","2026-09-21",true,{"@type":102,"interactionType":103,"userInteractionCount":105},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":104},"ViewAction",11,{"@type":107,"mainEntity":108},"FAQPage",[109,115,119],{"name":110,"@type":111,"acceptedAnswer":112},"What does the article use to define whether a forecast is accurate?","Question",{"text":113,"@type":114},"It treats a forecast as accurate when it falls within a chosen percentage-point range of the realized outcome. It also applies a more statistical measure using RMSE to derive confidence intervals.","Answer",{"name":116,"@type":111,"acceptedAnswer":117},"What conclusion does the article reach about outperforming the median forecaster?",{"text":118,"@type":114},"The evidence shows little support that any forecaster consistently predicts better than the consensus (median) over time. Even forecasters who did well in one year often failed to sustain that advantage beyond what random chance would suggest.",{"name":120,"@type":111,"acceptedAnswer":121},"How does RMSE change the interpretation of GDP and inflation forecasts?",{"text":122,"@type":114},"RMSE quantifies average forecast error and is used to compute an expected confidence interval around the median forecast. This yields ranges for future GDP growth and inflation based on historical prediction accuracy.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":83,"og:type":125,"og:title":65,"og:site_name":95,"og:description":67},"article",{"robots":127,"canonical":83},"index,follow",{"doc_id":129,"site_id":62},321739,1790117445,{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":132},{"doc_id":129,"user_id":133,"nickname":92,"user_avatar":134,"doc_module":4,"category_id":39,"category_name":40,"doc_title":65,"doc_description":67,"doc_content":135,"file_id":136,"file_url":137,"file_type":138,"file_size":139,"view_count":105,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":8,"is_downloadable":8,"audit_status":8,"page_count":34,"language":140,"language_code":63,"site_id":62,"html_lang":63,"table_of_contents":141,"faqs":142,"seo_title":143,"seo_description":67,"update_tm":144,"read_time":145,"preview_page_count":4},549758252649,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/8000253669c5317157?_k=1778319167496531819","by Michael F.Bryan and Linsey Molloy  \nFlip through the pages of any busi-ness periodical and you arelikely tofind seemingly precise economic pre-dictions from various experts.Theytell us that GDP will grow solidly—or not—and how much inflation weshould expect.In this Commentary,we ask a simple question:Are thereany demonstrably superior forecast-ers out there?To answer that question,weexamine economists'year-aheadgrowth andinflation predictions since1983 to see whether any have distin-guished themselves as particularlygood(or bad)forecasters over time.  \nWe find little evidence that any forecasterconsistently predicts better than the con-sensus(median)forecast and,further,we find that forecasters who gave better-than-average predictions in one year wereunable to sustain their superior forecastingperformance—at least no more than ran-dom chance would suggest.  \n■ In the Eye of the BeholderWhat does it mean to be a\"good\"eco-nomic forecaster?Well,it means tobe accurate,of course.But what con-stitutes accuracy?In table 1,we sum-marize the track record of the medianeconomist's year-ahead predictionsfor real GDP growth and CPI inflationsince 1983.(Forecasts were compledby the Livingston Survey.)If we arbi-trarily define an accurate predictionas being within %percentage point ofthe realized outcome,we would saythat since 1983 the median forecastwas accurate in only seven years,orabout 30 percent of the time.In elevenof these years—a little less than halfof the time—the median economistmissed the mark in their growth fore-  \nMirror,Mirror,Who's the BestForecaster of Them All?  \ncasts by more than a percentage point.And 22 percent of the time,econo-mists'growth forecasts erred by morethan 2 percentage points.The accuracyof the median forecaster's prediction ofinflation was a bit better over the 23-year period.Inflation predictions wereaccurate—that is,within %percentagepoint of actual inflation—39 percent ofthe time(nine of the 23 years).How-ever,economists were offin their infla-tion predictions by more than a percent-age point about 30 percent of the time.  \nOur definition of accurate—within%percentage point of the actual out-come—was arbitrary.Isn't there amore objective standard we can useto judge forecast accuracy?Well,accuracy is always in the eye of thebeholder,but one measure of forecastaccuracy that is popular among statisti-cians is the “root mean squared error”(RMSE)of the forecast.A RMSEallows us to compute a confidenceinterval around a forecast based on itsrecord of accuracy  \nApplying this standard to our groupof forecasts,we see that the RMSE ofthe median economist's GDP forecastwas 1.4 percentage points.Combiningthis information and a bit of statisti-cal theory,we would expect the year-ahead GDP prediction of the medianforecast to be within about 2.4 percentof the actual GDP growth rate about90 percent of the time.So suppose themedian forecaster expects the economyto grow 3.4 percent next year(its aver-age since 1983).You could conclude—with 90 percent confidence—that theeconomy will grow between a robust  \n5.8 percent and a sluggish 1 percent.  \nMarch 15,2007  \nSay you need an accurate forecast offuture GDPor inflation.What's yourbest bet—the economist who was hotlast year or the forecaster in the mid-dle?The record indicates it's tough toconsistently beat the median prediction.  \nSimilarly,the RMSE of the medianeconomist's inflation prediction overthis period was I percent,which meansthat given an average inflation rateof 3.1 percent,you could be about 90percent confident that prices will risebetween a stable 1.4 percent and anuncomfortably rapid 4.8 percent overthe coming year.The median forecast,in fact,encompasses a broad range ofvery different economic environments.and if you need to know next year'seconomic environment with more preci-sion than this,the recent track record ofeconomic forecasters suggests you maybe out of luck.  \n■ And the Winner Is..  \nThe evidence presented above makesone thing very clear—we mu","cbCaivUbNMiQh0EI","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaivUbNMiQh0EI","pdf",1322167,"English","# Accuracy of year-ahead median forecasts\n## Accuracy within percentage-point bands\n## RMSE and confidence intervals\n# Forecasting better than the median\n## Naive benchmark comparison\n## Repeatability of above-median performance","[{\"question\":\"What does the article use to define whether a forecast is accurate?\",\"answer\":\"It treats a forecast as accurate when it falls within a chosen percentage-point range of the realized outcome. It also applies a more statistical measure using RMSE to derive confidence intervals.\"},{\"question\":\"What conclusion does the article reach about outperforming the median forecaster?\",\"answer\":\"The evidence shows little support that any forecaster consistently predicts better than the consensus (median) over time. Even forecasters who did well in one year often failed to sustain that advantage beyond what random chance would suggest.\"},{\"question\":\"How does RMSE change the interpretation of GDP and inflation forecasts?\",\"answer\":\"RMSE quantifies average forecast error and is used to compute an expected confidence interval around the median forecast. This yields ranges for future GDP growth and inflation based on historical prediction accuracy.\"}]","Mirror,Mirror, Who's the Best Forecaster of Them All? | PDF",1789960119,18]