[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-seo-203211-105":3,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":81,"doc-detail-203211-en":131},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"ok",{"site_id":7,"language":8,"slug":9,"title":10,"keywords":11,"description":12,"schema_data":13,"social_meta":74,"head_meta":76,"extra_data":78,"updated_unix":80},105,"en","minnesota-budget-and-economic-forecast","Minnesota Budget and Economic Forecast","","Statutory provisions require Minnesota’s Commissioner of Management and Budget to prepare a forecast of state revenue and expenditures in February and November each year, assuming current laws and reasonable economic growth estimates. The document outlines forecasting coverage rules for biennia, notes limitations on rounded table totals, and defines calendar (CY) versus fiscal (FY) reference conventions. The executive summary presents a stable current biennium outlook with a projected surplus, while structural imbalances are projected to widen in later planning estimates.",{"@graph":14,"@context":73},[15,34,56],{"@type":16,"itemListElement":17},"BreadcrumbList",[18,23,27,31],{"item":19,"name":20,"@type":21,"position":22},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",1,{"item":24,"name":25,"@type":21,"position":26},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":28,"name":29,"@type":21,"position":30},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/","Research & Report",3,{"item":32,"name":10,"@type":21,"position":33},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/minnesota-budget-and-economic-forecast/203211/",4,{"url":32,"name":10,"@type":35,"image":36,"author":41,"headline":10,"publisher":44,"fileFormat":47,"inLanguage":8,"description":12,"dateModified":48,"datePublished":49,"encodingFormat":47,"isAccessibleForFree":50,"interactionStatistic":51},"DigitalDocument",{"url":37,"@type":38,"width":39,"height":40},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/minnesota-budget-and-economic-forecast/203211.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":42,"@type":43},"Rizky","Person",{"url":19,"name":45,"@type":46},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-11-06","2026-09-04",true,{"@type":52,"interactionType":53,"userInteractionCount":55},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":54},"ViewAction",12,{"@type":57,"mainEntity":58},"FAQPage",[59,65,69],{"name":60,"@type":61,"acceptedAnswer":62},"What statutory basis governs Minnesota’s budget and economic forecast timing?","Question",{"text":63,"@type":64},"The forecast is prepared in February and November each year under Minnesota Statutes, section 16A.103, subdivision 1.","Answer",{"name":66,"@type":61,"acceptedAnswer":67},"How does the document treat assumptions and estimation scope for forecasts?",{"text":68,"@type":64},"Revenue is estimated for all sources in current law, and expenditures for all legal obligations plus inflation and other variables outside the legislature’s control.",{"name":70,"@type":61,"acceptedAnswer":71},"What is the difference between fiscal years (FY) and calendar years (CY) in the outlook?",{"text":72,"@type":64},"Economic outlooks typically use calendar years, while Minnesota revenue data and forecasts use state fiscal years from July 1 to June 30; tax years may span two fiscal years.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":32,"og:type":75,"og:title":10,"og:site_name":45,"og:description":12},"article",{"robots":77,"canonical":32},"index,follow",{"doc_id":79,"site_id":7},203211,1788556857,{"code":4,"msg":82,"data":83},"success",[84,88,92,96,101,106,111,115,120,123,127],{"id":22,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":85,"show_sort_weight":86,"slug":87},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":26,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":89,"show_sort_weight":90,"slug":91},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":33,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":93,"show_sort_weight":94,"slug":95},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":97,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":102,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":103,"show_sort_weight":104,"slug":105},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":107,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":112,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":29,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},8,30,"research-report",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":118,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":121,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":122},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":124,"slug":126},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":128,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":97,"slug":130},19,"General","general",{"code":4,"msg":82,"data":132},{"doc_id":79,"user_id":133,"nickname":42,"user_avatar":134,"doc_module":4,"category_id":112,"category_name":29,"doc_title":10,"doc_description":12,"doc_content":135,"file_id":136,"file_url":137,"file_type":138,"file_size":139,"view_count":55,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":22,"is_downloadable":22,"audit_status":22,"page_count":140,"language":141,"language_code":8,"site_id":7,"html_lang":8,"table_of_contents":142,"faqs":143,"seo_title":144,"seo_description":12,"update_tm":80,"read_time":145,"preview_page_count":4},962085564807,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_6f874abed73319feea01a86fa6f0fab8","This page left blank intentionally  \nStatutory Provisions  \nIn accordance with Minnesota Statutes, section 16A. 103, subdivision 1, the commissioner of Minnesota Management and Budget (MMB) must prepare a forecast of state revenue and expenditures in February and November of each year. This forecast must assume the continuation of current laws and reasonable estimates of projected growth in the national and state economies and affected populations.  \nRevenue must be estimated for all sources provided for in current law. Expenditures must be estimated for all obligations imposed by law and those projected to occur as a result of inflation and variables outside the control of the legislature.  \nA forecast prepared during the first fiscal year of a biennium must cover that biennium and the next biennium. A forecast prepared during the second fiscal year of a biennium must cover that biennium as well as the next two bienniums.  \nNotes  \nNumbers in the text and tables may not add to the totals due to rounding.  \nUnless otherwise noted, years used to describe the budget outlook are state fiscal years (FY), from July 1 to June 30, and years used to describe the economic outlook are calendar years (CY) .  \nWage and price inflation is included in revenue estimates.  \nThis page left blank intentionally.  \nTABLE OF CONTENTS  \nTable of Contents iii  \nEXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4  \nECONOMIC OUTLOOK 12  \nU.S. Economic Outlook 12  \nThe U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook 13  \nOther forecasts and real GDP growth. 28  \nCouncil of Economic Advisors Statement 33  \nMinnesota Economic Outlook 37  \nBUDGET OUTLOOK 51  \nCurrent Biennium 51  \nPlanning Estimates 55  \nREVENUE OUTLOOK 57  \nCurrent Biennium 57  \nPlanning Estimates 65  \nEXPENDITURE OUTLOOK 67  \nCurrent Biennium 67  \nPlanning Estimates 77  \nAPPENDIX 80  \nEXECUTIVE SUMMARY  \nMinnesota’s budget and economic outlook remains stable in the current biennium; however, structural budget challenges remain. A better than expected fiscal year close and higher near term revenue collections, partially offset by increased spending estimates, result in a projected surplus of $2.465 billion in the current biennium. Higher health care costs and slow economic growth drive an increased structural imbalance in the FY 2028-29 planning estimates where the balance is now projected to be negative $2.960 billion. Total general fund reserves remain strong and at their statutory target of $3.771 billion.  \nU.S. Economic Outlook. Since Minnesota’s Budget and Economic Forecast was last prepared in February 2025, the economy has seen substantial changes in policy at the federal level, from trade to immigration to taxes to spending. In this environment of policy uncertainty, we are forecasting with the additional uncertainty of missing and delayed federal data on economic conditions due to the recently ended federal government shutdown. Standard & Poor’s Global Market Intelligence (SPGMI), our macroeconomic consultant, prepares a monthly forecast of macroeconomic conditions, which we rely upon in producing our revenue forecast. This Budget and Economic Forecast relied on SPGMI’s November 2025 forecast, released to us beginning on November 5, 2025. While SPGMI is our main consultant, we compare their forecasts to those of other commercial, academic, and government forecasts. These other forecasts include those referenced in the “Blue Chip Economic Indicators” (Haver Analytics), the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank’s “Survey of Professional Forecasters,” and the Congressional Budget Office, among others.  \nIn reviewing the revenue and economic outlooks for the U.S. and Minnesota, the reader should consider the type of year: calendar, fiscal, or tax. Macroeconomic data and forecasts are usually presented on a calendar year basis. Minnesota revenue data and forecasts are usually on a fiscal year basis. For the State of Minnesota, the fiscal year is July of the calendar year prior through the following June. 1 Tax years coincide with calendar","cbCaijX7nvAaXOac","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaijX7nvAaXOac","pdf",4084814,99,"English","# Executive Summary\n## Economic Outlook\n## Budget Outlook\n## Revenue Outlook\n## Expenditure Outlook\n## Appendix","[{\"question\":\"What statutory basis governs Minnesota’s budget and economic forecast timing?\",\"answer\":\"The forecast is prepared in February and November each year under Minnesota Statutes, section 16A.103, subdivision 1.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the document treat assumptions and estimation scope for forecasts?\",\"answer\":\"Revenue is estimated for all sources in current law, and expenditures for all legal obligations plus inflation and other variables outside the legislature’s control.\"},{\"question\":\"What is the difference between fiscal years (FY) and calendar years (CY) in the outlook?\",\"answer\":\"Economic outlooks typically use calendar years, while Minnesota revenue data and forecasts use state fiscal years from July 1 to June 30; tax years may span two fiscal years.\"}]","Minnesota Budget and Economic Forecast | PDF",249]