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It reports federal and WICHE projections suggesting Maryland will avoid a precipitous drop, instead showing a short-term spike and stabilization. The brief also highlights implications for competition, growth in adult learners, alternative postsecondary pathways, and effects of K-12 investment under Blueprint for Maryland’s Future.",{"@graph":69,"@context":122},[70,84,105],{"@type":71,"itemListElement":72},"BreadcrumbList",[73,77,79,82],{"item":74,"name":75,"@type":76,"position":8},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":78,"name":9,"@type":76,"position":14},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/",{"item":80,"name":40,"@type":76,"position":81},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":83,"name":65,"@type":76,"position":19},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/maryland-higher-education-commission-policy-brief-is-there-an-enrollment-cliff-february-2025/585119/",{"url":83,"name":65,"@type":85,"image":86,"author":91,"headline":65,"publisher":94,"fileFormat":97,"inLanguage":63,"description":67,"dateModified":98,"datePublished":99,"encodingFormat":97,"isAccessibleForFree":100,"interactionStatistic":101},"DigitalDocument",{"url":87,"@type":88,"width":89,"height":90},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/maryland-higher-education-commission-policy-brief-is-there-an-enrollment-cliff-february-2025/585119.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":92,"@type":93},"Maya Linwood","Person",{"url":74,"name":95,"@type":96},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-11-10","2026-10-15",true,{"@type":102,"interactionType":103,"userInteractionCount":52},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":104},"ViewAction",{"@type":106,"mainEntity":107},"FAQPage",[108,114,118],{"name":109,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":111},"What national factors are driving concern about an enrollment cliff?","Question",{"text":112,"@type":113},"National news warns of a looming enrollment cliff as the supply of undergraduate students may slow due to lower birth rates and changing views on the value of a college degree.","Answer",{"name":115,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":116},"Do federal DOE and WICHE expect Maryland to experience a precipitous drop in high school graduates?",{"text":117,"@type":113},"No. DOE and WICHE predict Maryland will not see a precipitous drop; they project a slight spike in the short term and a return to current figures between 2028 and 2031.",{"name":119,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":120},"How do Maryland high school graduates behave when choosing where to attend college?",{"text":121,"@type":113},"Most college-going public high school graduates enroll in Maryland institutions, with data showing about 68% staying in state among those enrolling immediately after high school.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":83,"og:type":124,"og:title":65,"og:site_name":95,"og:description":67},"article",{"robots":126,"canonical":83},"index,follow",{"doc_id":128,"site_id":62},585119,1792860699,{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":131},{"doc_id":128,"user_id":132,"nickname":92,"user_avatar":133,"doc_module":4,"category_id":39,"category_name":40,"doc_title":65,"doc_description":67,"doc_content":134,"file_id":135,"file_url":136,"file_type":137,"file_size":138,"view_count":52,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":8,"is_downloadable":8,"audit_status":8,"page_count":8,"language":139,"language_code":63,"site_id":62,"html_lang":63,"table_of_contents":140,"faqs":141,"seo_title":142,"seo_description":67,"update_tm":143,"read_time":81,"preview_page_count":4},962084928432,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_155a257f0dc6eb9ab79c44ca47cae57d","MARYLAND HIGHER EDUCATION COMMISSION POLICY BRIEF  \nIs There An Enrollment Cliff?  \nFebruary 2025  \nNational news1 is warning colleges and universities across the US of a looming enrollment cliff, a slowing in the possible supply of undergraduate students due to such factors as a drop in birth rates and shifts in perceptions of the value of a college degree. For campuses, shrinking enrollments can have negative consequences for faculty, students, programs and budgets. An often-cited lead indicator of college enrollment trends is the predicted trend of students graduating high school. Nationally, the Department of Education (DOE)2 projects about a 5% drop in the number of public high school graduates (approximately 158,000) between 2023 and 2031 and the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE)3 estimates a 3% drop (approximately 128,000 students) between 2023 and 2031 and a more precipitous drop (@7%) the following 10 years to 2041.  \nDoes Maryland face a high school graduate cliff as well?  \nThe good news is that the federal DOE and WICHE predict that Maryland will not see a precipitous drop of high school graduates over the next decade or more. Maryland does not face a cliff; both the DOE and WICHE project a slight spike (around 11% or an increase of approximately 6,500 students) in the short term and a return to current highschool graduates figures between 2028 and  \n5  \n2031.  \nAre Maryland public high school graduates staying in Maryland to attend college?  \nMaryland Public High School Graduates: Actuals and Projections 2,3,4  \nMost college-going Maryland high school students stay in Maryland. Data from the Maryland Longitudinal Data System Center (MLDS)6 show that the majority of public high school graduates who enroll in college immediately after high school do so at Maryland institutions. Of the approximately 30,000 public high school graduates who attend college immediately after high school each year, around 68% enroll in Maryland institutions.  \nWhat do these trends mean for Maryland?  \nWith the predicted flat trend in Maryland public high school graduates and the fact that the majority of college-going high school graduates choose Maryland colleges and universities, there is room for cautious optimism that Maryland college enrollment will stay stable. That said, there are factors to consider as state stakeholders plan for the future.  \nMaryland’s institutions may face increased competition from out-of-state institutions – particularly those in neighboring states-in recruiting traditional freshmen-Institutions in states facing high school graduate shortfalls will be competing for a shrinking supply of possible college enrollees, including Maryland’s high school graduates. For example, West Virginia, Pennsylvania and many of the Northeastern states are estimated to have significant drops of high school graduates in the coming decade or more.7  \nThe number of adult learners is projected to grow – Per reports from the National Center of Education Statistics8, the number of nontraditional students (e.g., part-time, adults) demanding post-secondary education will increase over the next decade.  \nAttending college can have value even for students who do not pursue a traditional degree – With more pathways for postsecondary education available to Marylanders, the perceptions of the value of a further education after high school can increase. State investments made in workforce “noncredit” pathways can lead to more positive postsecondary outcomes for Marylanders.9  \nHigh school graduation rates in Maryland have been stable10 and may increase under changes implemented by the Blueprint for Maryland’s Future – investment in K-12 education in Maryland reaps benefits for Maryland’s post-secondary institutions as well. More students finishing high school “college ready” can lead to increased postsecondary enrollment and more successful college outcomes.  \nCITATIONS  \n[1] Forbes “Who’s going over the enrollment cl","cbCaivj7XdObJGUc","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaivj7XdObJGUc","pdf",204665,"English","# Is There An Enrollment Cliff?\n## Does Maryland face a high school graduate cliff as well?\n## Are Maryland public high school graduates staying in Maryland to attend college?\n## What do these trends mean for Maryland?","[{\"question\":\"What national factors are driving concern about an enrollment cliff?\",\"answer\":\"National news warns of a looming enrollment cliff as the supply of undergraduate students may slow due to lower birth rates and changing views on the value of a college degree.\"},{\"question\":\"Do federal DOE and WICHE expect Maryland to experience a precipitous drop in high school graduates?\",\"answer\":\"No. DOE and WICHE predict Maryland will not see a precipitous drop; they project a slight spike in the short term and a return to current figures between 2028 and 2031.\"},{\"question\":\"How do Maryland high school graduates behave when choosing where to attend college?\",\"answer\":\"Most college-going public high school graduates enroll in Maryland institutions, with data showing about 68% staying in state among those enrolling immediately after high school.\"}]","MARYLAND HIGHER EDUCATION COMMISSION POLICY BRIEF - Is There An Enrollment Cliff? - February 2025 | PDF",1792053707]