[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-109836-en":3,"doc-seo-109836-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":92},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},109836,962075114765,"Quinn","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_a8503ba1806abce46bf441b54a3ca4cd",8,"Research & Report","Mali - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - February 2021 - Risk assessment and tailored scenarios","Mali remains at moderate risk of both external and overall debt distress, but vulnerabilities have increased since the May 2020 joint assessment. Worsening fiscal balances driven by the pandemic and the coup, a slower consolidation path toward the WAEMU target, and weaker external donor grants are raising public debt levels and gross financing needs. Standard stress tests keep debt within thresholds, while a customized scenario shows external debt sensitivity to security and fiscal pressures, potentially breaching public debt and debt-service thresholds under adverse commodity and export outcomes.","Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION  \nINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nMALI  \nJoint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis  \nFebruary 2021  \nPrepared Jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA)  \nand the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Approved by Marcello Estevão (IDA) Annalisa Fedelino and Bjoern Rother (IMF)  \n\n| Mali: Joint Bank-Fund Staff Debt Sustainability Analysis |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress: | Moderate |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in risk rating | Moderate risk tool: Some space to absorb shocks |\n| Application of judgement | Yes, customized scenario is considered for external and overall debt distress risk rating |\n\nMali remains at moderate risk of both external and overall debt distress consistent with the joint Bank-Fund assessment from May 2020, but vulnerabilities have increased. The pandemic and coup-induced deterioration in the fiscal balance, a more gradual consolidation path towards the WAEMU fiscal target, and a shortfall in external donor grant support and thus a heavier reliance on more expensive domestic borrowing are driving a substantial increase in public debt levels and gross financing needs. Standardized stress tests do not result in breaches of DSA thresholds for either external or public debt, but a customized scenario demonstrates the vulnerability of Mali’s external debt to a change in security conditions or other fiscal pressures that could lead to larger fiscal deficits financed on non-concessional terms.1 Under this customized scenario, Mali’s public debt and debt service levels would breach their respective thresholds if commodity prices and exports were to deteriorate, highlighting sustainability and liquidity risks. To avoid a deterioration in debt levels and the debt servicing burden it is essential that the authorities continue their efforts to mobilize tax revenue and implement structural reforms that address fiscal risks from stateowned enterprises and the cost of the civil service, as well as strengthen debt and public financial management.  \n1 This DSA was jointly prepared by IMF and World Bank staff under the debt sustainability framework (DSF) for low-income countries (LICs), implemented since July 2018. The debt-carrying capacity is classified using the country-specific composite indicator (CI) composed of three macroeconomic indicators and the World Bank’s Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA). Mali’s capacity is assessed as “medium” using the CI (with a CI index of 2.90) based on the 2020 October WEO and 2019 CPIA that was released in July 2020.  \nPUBLIC DEBT COVERAGE  \n1. Mali’s public debt covers external and domestic obligations of the central government  \n(Text Table 1). State and local government entities do not borrow directly on their own. Detailed information on SOE debt is currently not available; the SOE contingent liability shock has be therefore been revised upward to 5 percent of GDP from the default shock of 2 percent. Staffs are supporting authorities’ efforts to broaden the coverage of public debt to include SOE debt and debt of other public institutions outside the central government in public debt reports. Improvements in debt recording and reporting are critical. As for external debt, it is classified based on the currency denomination.2  \n\n| Text Table 1. Coverage of Public Debt and Size of Contingent Liability Shock |  |  |  |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- |\n|  | 1 | Subsectors of the public sector | Sub-sectors covered |\n|  |  | Central government | X |\n|  | 2 | State and local government |  |\n|  | 3 | Other elements in the general government |  |\n|  | 4 | o/w: Social security fund |  |\n|  | 5 | o/w: Extra budgetary funds (EBFs) |  |\n|  | 6 | Guarantees (to other entities in the public and private sector, including to SOEs) |  |\n|  | 7 | Central bank (borrowed on behalf of the government) |  |\n|  | 8 | No","cbCaiewh408FkVWB","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiewh408FkVWB","pdf",2531385,4,1,20,"English","en",105,"# Risk of debt distress\n## Key drivers and baseline findings\n## Customized scenario and stress test results\n# Public debt coverage\n## Scope of central government obligations\n## Contingent liability shock design\n# Debt background and creditor composition","[{\"question\":\"What is Mali’s overall and external debt distress risk rating?\",\"answer\":\"Mali is rated at moderate risk of both external and overall debt distress in the joint Bank-Fund assessment.\"},{\"question\":\"Which factors are driving the increase in Mali’s public debt and financing needs?\",\"answer\":\"The pandemic and coup-induced deterioration in the fiscal balance, a more gradual consolidation path toward the WAEMU fiscal target, and shortfalls in external donor grants—leading to greater reliance on more expensive domestic borrowing.\"},{\"question\":\"How do the customized scenario results differ from standardized stress tests?\",\"answer\":\"Standardized stress tests do not breach DSA thresholds, but the customized scenario shows Mali’s external debt vulnerability to changes in security conditions or fiscal pressures, with potential threshold breaches if commodity prices and exports deteriorate.\"}]","Mali - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - February 2021 - Risk assessment and tailored scenarios | PDF",1784482610,50,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":87,"head_meta":89,"extra_data":91,"updated_unix":29},"mali-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-february-2021-risk-assessment-and-tailored-scenarios","",{"@graph":37,"@context":86},[38,54,69],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,49,52],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":48},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":50,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":51},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":53,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/mali-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-february-2021-risk-assessment-and-tailored-scenarios/109836/",{"url":53,"name":13,"@type":55,"author":56,"headline":13,"publisher":58,"fileFormat":61,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":62,"datePublished":63,"encodingFormat":61,"isAccessibleForFree":64,"interactionStatistic":65},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":57},"Person",{"url":42,"name":59,"@type":60},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-29","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":66,"interactionType":67,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":68},"ViewAction",{"@type":70,"mainEntity":71},"FAQPage",[72,78,82],{"name":73,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":75},"What is Mali’s overall and external debt distress risk rating?","Question",{"text":76,"@type":77},"Mali is rated at moderate risk of both external and overall debt distress in the joint Bank-Fund assessment.","Answer",{"name":79,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":80},"Which factors are driving the increase in Mali’s public debt and financing needs?",{"text":81,"@type":77},"The pandemic and coup-induced deterioration in the fiscal balance, a more gradual consolidation path toward the WAEMU fiscal target, and shortfalls in external donor grants—leading to greater reliance on more expensive domestic borrowing.",{"name":83,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":84},"How do the customized scenario results differ from standardized stress tests?",{"text":85,"@type":77},"Standardized stress tests do not breach DSA thresholds, but the customized scenario shows Mali’s external debt vulnerability to changes in security conditions or fiscal pressures, with potential threshold breaches if commodity prices and exports deteriorate.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":53,"og:type":88,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":59,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":90,"canonical":53},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":93},[94,98,102,106,111,115,120,123,127,130,134],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":95,"show_sort_weight":96,"slug":97},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":48,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":99,"show_sort_weight":100,"slug":101},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":103,"show_sort_weight":104,"slug":105},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":107,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":112,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":113,"show_sort_weight":30,"slug":114},6,"Technology","technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":22,"slug":126},9,"Religion & Spirituality","religion-spirituality",{"id":22,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":128,"show_sort_weight":22,"slug":129},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":131,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":132,"show_sort_weight":131,"slug":133},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":135,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":136,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":137},19,"General","general"]