[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111520-en":3,"doc-seo-111520-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111520,8796095461564,"Liam","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_155a257f0dc6eb9ab79c44ca47cae57d",8,"Research & Report","Mali - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - Moderate Risk of Debt Distress","Mali’s external and overall debt distress risk is assessed as moderate, despite increased downside risks compared with the 2023 debt sustainability analysis. External debt shows no baseline or stress-test breaches under a currency-denomination definition, yet persistently breaches thresholds under a customized quasi-residency-based scenario for regional ownership risks. Overall debt stays below the baseline threshold for public debt-to-GDP, but breaches benchmarks for extended periods across several stress tests, including commodity price and contingent liability shocks. Authorities should strengthen debt transparency, address arrears, improve SOE finances, and maintain fiscal discipline to restore investor confidence.","Public Disc losure Authorized  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Abebe Adugna (IDA), and Montfort Mlachila and Tokhir Mirzoev (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| MALI: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Substantial space to absorb shocks |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nMali’s risk of external and overall debt distress is assessed to be moderate, although downside risks have increased since the 2023 debt sustainability analysis (DSA) .1 For external debt, no breaches occur in either the baseline scenario or in any of the stress tests when the conventional currency-based definition is adopted. However, the debt serviceto-exports and debt service-to-revenue indicators persistently breach their respective thresholds under a customized scenario where external debt is classified as quasi-residency-based to better account for ownership of regional debt. For overall debt, the present value of public debt-to-GDP ratio remains below the relevant threshold in the baseline scenario. However, it incurs a prolonged and substantial breach of its benchmark under several stress tests, including a commodity price shock stress test and a contingent liability stress test designed to account for the possibility that the largest SOEs may add to the public debt burden. Mali’s space to absorb shocks is assessed to be substantial. Nonetheless, the country is subject to several downside risks arising from both domestic and geopolitical challenges, including tighter regional and global financing conditions. To ensure debt sustainability, resolving disputes with regional partners, making progress on security and domestic political issues, improving the profitability and financial situation of SOEs, maintaining a reliable and stable regulatory environment and continued fiscal discipline will be important for restoring investor confidence and creating a more conducive business environment. Finally, it is crucial to engage with creditors to clear external and domestic arrears in a timely fashion.  \n1 The DSA analysis reflects a debt carrying capacity of medium considering Mali’s composite indicator index of 2 .84, based on the IMF’s October 2024 World Economic Outlook and the 2023 World Bank Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) .  \n1. Mali’s public debt covers the external and domestic obligations of the central government  \n(Text Tables 1 and 2) .2 Local government entities do not borrow on their own. A detailed and updated breakdown of the debt of all state-owned enterprises (SOEs) is currently not available. Total SOE liabilities are estimated to be large, and staff is therefore supporting the authorities’ efforts to broaden public debt reporting coverage to include the debt of SOEs and other public institutions.3 Improvements in debt recording and reporting are critical for a robust evaluation of debt sustainability. Owing to data limitations, and consistent with the practice of all countries in the WAEMU, external debt is classified by currency denomination.4 Nevertheless, estimates based on auction data suggest that the amount of external debt as defined by creditor residency is likely to be significantly larger (see ¶12 for more details) . Consequently, the DSA’s model-based output for external debt sustainability is complemented with a fully-customized scenario designed to broaden the definition of external debt, to better account for risks.  \n2. A contingent liability test with tailored magnitude of shocks is applied to reflect the potential impacts of additional liabilities (Text Table 2) . The component of the contingent liability shock related to SOEs, which fall outside public sector coverage, is assumed to be 12 percent of GDP, 10 percentage point","cbCaihsVaHzyAN9H","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaihsVaHzyAN9H","pdf",813937,1,26,"English","en",105,"# Risk Assessment Overview\n## External Debt Distress Findings\n## Overall Debt Distress Findings\n# Stress Tests and Judgment\n## Customized Quasi-Residency External Debt Scenario\n## Contingent Liability Shock and SOE Exposure\n# Policy Implications for Debt Sustainability","[{\"question\":\"How is Mali’s debt distress risk rated in this analysis?\",\"answer\":\"Both external debt distress risk and overall debt distress risk are assessed as moderate. The report also notes substantial space to absorb shocks.\"},{\"question\":\"Why do breaches occur for external debt in the customized scenario?\",\"answer\":\"No breaches occur under the conventional currency-based definition in baseline or stress tests. Breaches persist when external debt is reclassified using a quasi-residency-based approach to better reflect ownership of regional debt.\"},{\"question\":\"What stress tests drive the prolonged breaches for overall public debt?\",\"answer\":\"Overall debt breaches its benchmark for a prolonged and substantial period under several stress tests, including a commodity price shock and a contingent liability stress test that accounts for possible additional SOE-related public debt burdens.\"}]",1784490506,66,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"mali-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-moderate-risk-of-debt-distress","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/mali-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-moderate-risk-of-debt-distress/111520/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"How is Mali’s debt distress risk rated in this analysis?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"Both external debt distress risk and overall debt distress risk are assessed as moderate. The report also notes substantial space to absorb shocks.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Why do breaches occur for external debt in the customized scenario?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"No breaches occur under the conventional currency-based definition in baseline or stress tests. Breaches persist when external debt is reclassified using a quasi-residency-based approach to better reflect ownership of regional debt.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"What stress tests drive the prolonged breaches for overall public debt?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"Overall debt breaches its benchmark for a prolonged and substantial period under several stress tests, including a commodity price shock and a contingent liability stress test that accounts for possible additional SOE-related public debt burdens.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,110,115,120,123,128,131,135],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]