[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110149-en":3,"doc-seo-110149-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},110149,549758146520,"Patrick","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/80002397d8c0411e94?_k=1775819394049821470",8,"Research & Report","Maldives - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - High Risk of Debt Distress","Maldives continues to face a high risk of external debt distress, with the overall risk of debt distress also assessed as high. End-2020 debt indicators weakened since the April 2020 DSA, mainly reflecting COVID-19’s larger-than-expected impact, especially on tourism-related activity. Deteriorating projections for debt and the fiscal deficit are driven by a lower GDP path and an expanded medium-term public investment program. Although the April 2021 Sukuk issuance reduced rollover risk and debt service is current, protracted breaches under baseline projections make debt sustainability untenable. Achieving sustainability requires sustained fiscal consolidation, conservative debt management, and continued strong growth amid downside risks to growth, interest rates, and fiscal balances.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nZoubida Allaoua and Marcello Estevão (IDA) and Ranil Salgado (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .  \n\n| MALDIVES: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Not sustainable under baseline |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nThe Maldives continues to be at a high risk of debt distress. Since the April 2020 Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA), all end-2020 debt indicators have deteriorated, mostly reflecting the larger than expected impact of COVID-19 on the economy, especially tourism related sectors.1 Projections for the debt level and fiscal deficit have worsened, driven by both a lower projected GDP path and the authorities’ expanded medium-term public investment program. The April 2021 Sukuk issuance rolled over 77 percent of the 2020 Eurobond, decreasing the associated rollover risk. The authorities are, and have been, current on debt service obligations to both domestic and external creditors. Nonetheless, unlike the April 2020 DSA, protracted breaches in several debt indicators over the medium term make the assessment of debt unsustainable under the baseline projections. Securing debt sustainability requires balanced and sustained fiscal consolidation, conservative debt management, and continued strong growth. With prominent downside risks to the outlook, debt dynamics will remain vulnerable to adverse shocks to growth, interest rates, and the fiscal position.  \n1 The debt carrying capacity of the Maldives is classified as weak. The composite indicator is estimated at 2.53 and it is based on the April 2021 WEO and 2019 World Bank’s Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) score.  \n1. The total PPG debt-to-GDP ratio increased from 78 percent in 2019 to 146 percent in 2020, reflecting both the contraction in nominal GDP by about 34 percent and an expansion in PPG nominal debt by 24 percent. Total Public and Publicly Guaranteed (PPG) debt stood at USD 5,459 million, or 146 percent of GDP at end-2020. This implies a nominal increase of about USD 1048 million (24 percent growth) compared to end-2019 debt levels. Both external and domestic debt increased during 2020.2  \n\n| Total Public and Publicly Guaranteed Debt\u003Cbr>(in percent of GDP) |  |  |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| 160\u003Cbr>140\u003Cbr>120\u003Cbr>100\u003Cbr>80\u003Cbr>60\u003Cbr>40\u003Cbr>20\u003Cbr>0 |  |  |\n| 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Sources: Maldives Ministry of Finance and IMF staff projections |  |  |\n|  |  |  |\n\n2 The Maldives availed of swap arrangements with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for USD 400 million by the end of 2020. These amounts were availed in two tranches, USD 150 million in April and USD 250 million in December. The USD 150 million was repaid in January 2021. The swap arrangement with the RBI is for the purpose of reserve management and thereis no indication it is being used for fiscal purposes. Thus, the swap with RBI is excluded from public debt.  \n2. Domestic PPG debt stood at USD 2,972 million or 79.5 percent of GDP by end 2020. This isan increase of around USD 817 million from 2019 and includes USD 214 million in advances from the Maldives Monetary Authority (MMA) to the central government and a USD 250 million bond purchased by the State Bank of India Malé Branch as budget support to buffer the impact of COVID-19. Outstanding public debt of the central government is owed mostly to commercial banks at 42 percent,3 followed by other financial corporations, including pension funds at 36 percent, and the central bank at 21 percent. Domestic debt outstanding to the central bank includes around USD 390 million (or 13 percent of domestic PPG debt) from a bond issued in 2014 to convert debt held by the MMA in the ways and means account. To bridge the financing","cbCaigUdiZdTPWLo","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaigUdiZdTPWLo","pdf",897067,1,20,"English","en",105,"# Risk of Debt Distress\n## External debt distress assessment\n## Overall risk of debt distress\n## Drivers of deterioration since April 2020 DSA\n## Mitigating actions and remaining vulnerabilities\n## Requirements for achieving sustainability","[{\"question\":\"What is the assessed risk of external debt distress for Maldives?\",\"answer\":\"The risk of external debt distress is assessed as high.\"},{\"question\":\"Why did the debt indicators deteriorate by end-2020 compared with the April 2020 DSA?\",\"answer\":\"Debt indicators weakened mainly due to the larger-than-expected impact of COVID-19 on the economy, particularly tourism-related sectors.\"},{\"question\":\"What measures does the analysis say are needed to secure debt sustainability?\",\"answer\":\"Debt sustainability requires balanced and sustained fiscal consolidation, conservative debt management, and continued strong growth.\"}]",1784484122,50,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"maldives-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-high-risk-of-debt-distress","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/maldives-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-high-risk-of-debt-distress/110149/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-22","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What is the assessed risk of external debt distress for Maldives?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"The risk of external debt distress is assessed as high.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Why did the debt indicators deteriorate by end-2020 compared with the April 2020 DSA?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"Debt indicators weakened mainly due to the larger-than-expected impact of COVID-19 on the economy, particularly tourism-related sectors.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"What measures does the analysis say are needed to secure debt sustainability?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"Debt sustainability requires balanced and sustained fiscal consolidation, conservative debt management, and continued strong growth.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,110,114,119,122,126,129,133],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":28,"slug":113},6,"Technology","technology",{"id":115,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":116,"show_sort_weight":117,"slug":118},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":120,"slug":121},30,"research-report",{"id":123,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":124,"show_sort_weight":21,"slug":125},9,"Religion & Spirituality","religion-spirituality",{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":127,"show_sort_weight":21,"slug":128},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":130,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":131,"show_sort_weight":130,"slug":132},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":134,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":135,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":136},19,"General","general"]