[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111505-en":3,"doc-seo-111505-105":30,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":92},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":28,"read_time":29},111505,8796095461564,"Liam","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_155a257f0dc6eb9ab79c44ca47cae57d",8,"Research & Report","Maldives - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - Debt Distress Risk Assessment","Maldives faces high risk of external and overall debt distress, with the granular assessment labeled unsustainable. External financing needs have risen versus the prior debt sustainability analysis due to high commodity prices, a more expansionary fiscal stance supported by capital spending, subsidies and recurrent outlays, and repayments or rollovers of non-concessional obligations, especially global sukuk. External refinancing pressure is expected to peak in 2026, while higher amortizations and interest payments could cause prolonged breaches of multiple debt indicators. Debt sustainability requires sustained fiscal consolidation, strong growth, and prudent debt management.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nMathew A. Verghis and Manuela Francisco (IDA) and Anne-Marie Gulde-Wolf and Boileau Yeyinou Loko (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) 1.  \n\n| MALDIVES: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Unsustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nThe Maldives remains at a high risk of external and overall debt distress same as the previous Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA)2 ,3 External gross financing needs have increased relative to the previous DSA due to (i) high commodity prices, (ii) a more expansionary fiscal stance amid increases in capital project related spending, subsidies, andrecurrent expenditures, and (iii) repayments and rollovers of non-concessional debt, mainly global sukuk. External refinancing pressures are expected to peak in 2026. Increasingly higher amortizations and large interest payments would trigger protracted breaches in several debt indicators, leading to the assessment of debt not sustainable under the authorities’ current policies. The debt dynamics will remain vulnerable to adverse shocks in growth, interest rates, and fiscal position in the near term. The key external debt indicators, the present value (PV) of external debt-to-GDP, will converge to the 30 percent threshold by the medium-term. Restoring debt sustainability requires sustained fiscal consolidation, continued strong growth, and prudent debt management.  \n1 This DSA has been prepared jointly by the IMF and World Bank, following the 2018 Guidance Note on the Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries  \n2 IMF Country Report No.23/366 , November 2023.  \n3 The Maldives Composite Indicator of 2.40 indicates a weak debt-carrying capacity, based on the October 2023 IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) and the 2022 World Bank’s Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) .  \n1. Supported by strong tourism rebound, total public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt-toGDP ratio declined in 2022. Total PPG debt fell to about 110 percent of GDP in 2022, from 120 percent in 2021. Nevertheless, public debt-to-GDP ratio remains elevated and is estimated to rise further in 2023, compared to its pre-pandemic level of 78.8 percent in 2019, reflecting large fiscal deficits in response to spending pressures and heightened global commodity prices. Nominal PPG debt stock increased to US$6,885 million in 2022 from US$6,469 million in 2021, driven by a large annual increase in central government budgetary debt, to about US$5,939 million (an increase of about 7.4 percent), even as guaranteed debt remained broadly unchanged at about US$946 million. Overall, both external and domestic debt increased during 2022 with domestic debt slightly above half of the mix (55 percent of total) .  \n2. Domestic PPG debt increased. Domestic PPG debt rose to US$3,813 million (or around  \n\n| Maldives: PPG Debt, 2022\u003Cbr>(In percent of total) |  |  |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n|  PPG External Debt\u003Cbr>55%\u003Cbr> Domestic PPG Debt (with MMA Advances) |  | 45% |\n| Source: Maldives Ministry of Finance. |  |  |\n\n61 percent of GDP) in 2022, up from US$3,452 million in 2021. To bridge the financing of the government, the parliament of the Maldives approved the temporary suspension of elements of Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA) to allow for expansion of the cap on government advances with the Maldives Monetary Authority (MMA) to MVR 4.4 billion (US$286 million) until end-2023.4 Domestic PPG debt in 2022 also included US$256 million (MVR 3,946 million) in advances or around 7 percent of total domestic PPG debt, from the MMA to  \n\n| Maldives: Domestic PPG Debt, 2022\u003Cbr>(In percent of total domestic PPG) |  |\n| --- | --- |\n|  o/w Direct Domestic Debt\u003Cbr> o/w Guaranteed Domestic Debt\u003Cbr> o/","cbCaiur6vtmSipu6","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiur6vtmSipu6","pdf",775243,5,1,21,"English","en",105,"# Key Findings\n## Debt Distress Risk Rating\n## Drivers of Rising Financing Needs\n## External Refinancing Outlook\n## Debt Dynamics and Policy Implications\n# Debt Composition and Developments\n## Public and Publicly Guaranteed Debt Trends\n## Domestic PPG Debt Measures\n## External PPG Debt Structure","[{\"question\":\"What is the overall risk rating of debt distress for Maldives?\",\"answer\":\"The overall risk of debt distress is rated High, and the granularity in the risk rating is assessed as unsustainable.\"},{\"question\":\"Why have external gross financing needs increased compared with the previous DSA?\",\"answer\":\"External gross financing needs increased due to high commodity prices, a more expansionary fiscal stance with higher capital and recurrent spending plus subsidies, and repayments/rollovers of non-concessional debt mainly related to global sukuk.\"},{\"question\":\"What conditions are required to restore debt sustainability?\",\"answer\":\"Restoring debt sustainability requires sustained fiscal consolidation, continued strong growth, and prudent debt management.\"}]",1784490441,53,{"code":4,"msg":31,"data":32},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":33,"title":13,"keywords":34,"description":14,"schema_data":35,"social_meta":87,"head_meta":89,"extra_data":91,"updated_unix":28},"maldives-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":36,"@context":86},[37,54,69],{"@type":38,"itemListElement":39},"BreadcrumbList",[40,44,48,51],{"item":41,"name":42,"@type":43,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":45,"name":46,"@type":43,"position":47},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":49,"name":12,"@type":43,"position":50},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":52,"name":13,"@type":43,"position":53},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/maldives-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment/111505/",4,{"url":52,"name":13,"@type":55,"author":56,"headline":13,"publisher":58,"fileFormat":61,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":62,"datePublished":63,"encodingFormat":61,"isAccessibleForFree":64,"interactionStatistic":65},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":57},"Person",{"url":41,"name":59,"@type":60},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-24","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":66,"interactionType":67,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":68},"ViewAction",{"@type":70,"mainEntity":71},"FAQPage",[72,78,82],{"name":73,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":75},"What is the overall risk rating of debt distress for Maldives?","Question",{"text":76,"@type":77},"The overall risk of debt distress is rated High, and the granularity in the risk rating is assessed as unsustainable.","Answer",{"name":79,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":80},"Why have external gross financing needs increased compared with the previous DSA?",{"text":81,"@type":77},"External gross financing needs increased due to high commodity prices, a more expansionary fiscal stance with higher capital and recurrent spending plus subsidies, and repayments/rollovers of non-concessional debt mainly related to global sukuk.",{"name":83,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":84},"What conditions are required to restore debt sustainability?",{"text":85,"@type":77},"Restoring debt sustainability requires sustained fiscal consolidation, continued strong growth, and prudent debt 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