[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110291-en":3,"doc-seo-110291-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},110291,3848291630094,"Emma Wilson","https://eur-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_085a072bc5b1113ac321206ff7593b45",8,"Research & Report","Malawi - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis","Malawi’s external and overall public debt is assessed as being in distress, with the risk unchanged since the prior Debt Sustainability Analysis in November 2022. The worsening macroeconomic outlook and limited progress on debt restructuring drive the conclusion. Under the baseline, some external ratios remain below key thresholds, but multiple breaches emerge for debt-service and debt-to-exports measures, reflecting large near-term servicing needs. Overall debt-to-GDP stays well above the threshold, indicating current unsustainability.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nAsad Alam and Manuela Francisco (IDA) Costas Christou and Bjoern Rother (IMF) .  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association 1 (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .  \n\n| MALAWI: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS2 |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | In Debt Distress |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | In Debt Distress |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Unsustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nMalawi’s external and overall public debt is assessed as “in distress”—unchanged from the previous Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) in November 2022, given the deteriorating macroeconomic outlook and lack of progress on debt restructuring. This DSA presents an analysis of Malawi’s debt outlook prior to the implementation of the authorities’ planned external debt restructuring.  \nUnder the baseline scenario, the Present Value (PV) of PPG external debt-to-GDP ratio remains below the threshold throughout the horizon. However, breaches are observed in the PV of debt-to-exports, debt service-toexports, and debt service-to-revenue ratios over the medium term—with significant external debt servicing needs (around 60 percent of exports in 2023) falling due in the near term. The debt service-to-exports ratio remains in breach beyond the medium-term horizon. The PV of Malawi’s overall public debt-to-GDP was around 67 percent in 2022 and remains significantly above the threshold through the medium term. Malawi’s debt is currently unsustainable. Timely and complete implementation of the authorities’ debt restructuring strategy would be required for the external debt burden to be considered sustainable on a forward-looking basis.  \n1 The current DSA follows the revised Debt Sustainability Framework (DSF) for LICs and Guidance Note (2017) in effect as of July 1, 2018.  \n2 Malawi’s Composite Indicator (CI) is based on the latest published vintage (2021 Country Policy and Institutional Assessment, CPIA) and the IMF’s April 2023 World Economic Outlook. The CI remains ‘weak’ with a CI score of 2.42.  \n1. The DSA covers central government debt, central government guaranteed debt, and central bank debt contracted on behalf of the government (Text Table 1) . Public debt used for this DSA is public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) external (as defined on a residency basis) and public domestic debt, covering debt contracted and guaranteed by the central government and the Reserve Bank of Malawi (RBM) . Due to data limitations, it does not include debt held by state and local governments, other elements in the general government (such as the social security fund and extra budgetary funds), or nonguaranteed state-owned enterprise (SOE) debt. 3 ,4  \n| 1 | Subsectors of the public sector | Sub-sectors covered |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n|  | Central government | X |\n| 2 | State and local government |  |\n| 3 | Other elements in the general government |  |\n| 4 | o/w: Social security fund |  |\n| 5 | o/w: Extra budgetary funds (EBFs) |  |\n| 6 | Guarantees (to other entities in the public and private sector, including to SOEs) | X |\n| 7 | Central bank (borrowed on behalf of the government) | X |\n| 8 | Non-guaranteed SOE debt |  |\n\n\n| 1 | The country's coverage of public debt | The central government, central bank, government-guaranteed debt |  |  |  |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n|  |  |  | Default | Used for the\u003Cbr>analysis | Reasons for deviations from the default settings |\n| 2 | Other elements of the general government not captured in 1. | 0 | percent of GDP | 4.0 | Limited coverage, 0.6 percent for contingent liabilities due to swaps, 1.3 percent for government guaranteed debt. |\n| 3 | SoE's debt (guaranteed and not guaranteed by the government) 1/ | 2 | percent of GDP | 2.0 |  |\n| 4 | PPP | 35 | percent of PPP stock | 0.0 |  |\n| 5 | Financial market (the default value of 5 percent of GDP is the minimum value) Total (2+3+4","cbCais8wpaOkTT6F","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCais8wpaOkTT6F","pdf",939928,1,20,"English","en",105,"# Malawi’s Debt Distress Assessment\n## External and Overall Risk Rating\n## Baseline Scenario Breaches and Implications\n## Debt Coverage and Scope\n## Contingent Liabilities and Policy Context","[{\"question\":\"How is Malawi’s debt distress risk rated in this analysis?\",\"answer\":\"Malawi’s external and overall public debt risk is assessed as “in distress.” The rating remains unchanged from the previous analysis in November 2022.\"},{\"question\":\"Which debt indicators show breaches under the baseline scenario?\",\"answer\":\"While the PV of PPG external debt-to-GDP stays below the threshold, breaches occur for PV of debt-to-exports, debt service-to-exports, and debt service-to-revenue ratios over the medium term.\"},{\"question\":\"Why does the analysis conclude Malawi’s debt is currently unsustainable?\",\"answer\":\"The PV of Malawi’s overall public debt-to-GDP is around 67% in 2022 and remains significantly above the threshold through the medium term, indicating unsustainability without timely and complete restructuring.\"}]",1784484755,50,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"malawi-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/malawi-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis/110291/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-22","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"How is Malawi’s debt distress risk rated in this analysis?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"Malawi’s external and overall public debt risk is assessed as “in distress.” The rating remains unchanged from the previous analysis in November 2022.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Which debt indicators show breaches under the baseline scenario?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"While the PV of PPG external debt-to-GDP stays below the threshold, breaches occur for PV of debt-to-exports, debt service-to-exports, and debt service-to-revenue ratios over the medium term.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"Why does the analysis conclude Malawi’s debt is currently unsustainable?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"The PV of Malawi’s overall public debt-to-GDP is around 67% in 2022 and remains significantly above the threshold through the medium term, indicating unsustainability without timely and complete 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