[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110143-en":3,"doc-seo-110143-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},110143,549758146520,"Patrick","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/80002397d8c0411e94?_k=1775819394049821470",8,"Research & Report","Malawi - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis","Malawi’s external and overall public debt is assessed as being in debt distress, reflecting a downgrade from the previous Debt Sustainability Analysis following ongoing debt restructuring negotiations. Under the baseline scenario, the PV of PPG external debt-to-GDP remains below the threshold, but breaches occur for PV of debt-to-exports, debt service-to-exports, and debt service-to-revenue ratios in the medium term. The near-term burden is driven by the external debt-to-exports ratio, while the solvency indicator remains above thresholds. The analysis follows the revised DSF for LICs and clarifies debt coverage limits and contingent liability assumptions, and is prepared jointly by IMF and World Bank for an RCF request.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nAsad Alam and Marcello Estevão (IDA); Costas Christou and Bjorn Rother (IMF)  \nPrepared by the International Monetary Fund and the International Development Association.1  \n\n| MALAWI: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY2 |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | In Debt Distress |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | In Debt Distress |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Unsustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nMalawi’s external and overall public debt is assessed as “in distress”—a downgrade from the previous Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) (December 2021) in light of ongoing debt restructuring negotiations. This DSA presentsan analysis of Malawi’s debt situation prior to the implementation of the authorities’ debt restructuring strategy. Under the baseline scenario, the PV of PPG external debt-to-GDP ratio remains below the threshold throughout the horizon. A breach, however, is observed in the PV of debt-to-exports, debt service-to-exports, and debt service-to-revenue ratios over the medium term—the heaviest burden weighing in the near term with the external debt-to-exports ratio at 55.6 percent in 2022. The PV of the debt-to-exports ratio remains above the threshold of 140 percent especially if the residual financing gap were to be financed externally. The solvency indicator, the PV of public debt-to-GDP ratio, remains above the threshold throughout the medium term and beyond.  \n.  \n1The current DSA follows the revised Debt Sustainability Framework (DSF) for LICs and Guidance Note (2017) in effect as of July 1, 2018.  \n2 Malawi’s CI based on the current vintage (2022 CPIA) remains ‘weak’ with a CI score of 2.34.  \n1. The DSA covers central government debt, central government guaranteed debt, and central bank debt contracted on behalf of the government (Text Table 1) .3 Public debt used for this DSA is public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) external and public domestic debt, covering debt contracted and guaranteed by the central government and the Reserve Bank of Malawi (RBM) . Due to data limitations, it does not include debt held by state and local governments, other elements in the general government (such as the social security fund and extra budgetary funds), or nonguaranteed state-owned enterprise (SOE) debt.4  \n\n|  |  |  |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n|  |  |  |\n| lease customize elements of the contingent liability tailored test, as applicable |  |  |\n|  | 1 | The country's coverage of public debt  The central government, central bank, government-guaranteed debt  |\n| Default Used for the analysis Reasons for deviations from the default settings \u003Cbr>2 Other elements of the general government not captured in 1. 0\u003Cbr>3 SoE's debt (guaranteed and not guaranteed by the government) 1/ 2\u003Cbr>4 PPP 35\u003Cbr>5 Financial market (the default value of 5 percent of GDP is the minimum value 5 percent of GDP 3 Limited coverage, 1 percent for contingent liabilities due to swaps percent of GDP 2 percent of PPP stock 0.00 percent of GDP 5\u003Cbr> Total (2+3+4+5) (in percent of GDP)  10.0\u003Cbr>\u003Cbr>1/ The default shock of 2% of GDP will be triggered for countries whose government-guaranteed debt is not fully captured under the country's public debt definition (1 .) . If it is already included in the government debt (1 .) and risks associated with SoE's debt not guaranteed by the government is assessed to be negligible, a country team may reduce this to 0% . |  |  |\n\n2. This DSA is being conducted in the context of the authorities’ request for disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) and Staff Monitored Program with Executive Board Involvement (PMB) . The last Low-Income Country (LIC) DSA using LIC-Debt Sustainability Framework (DSF) was considered by the Executive Board in November 2021 as part of the 2021 Article IV Consultation.5 Malawi is subject to the IDA Sustainable Development Finance Policy (SDFP) which includes as Zero Nonconcessional Debt ","cbCaikyLEoO1DgN4","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaikyLEoO1DgN4","pdf",1090345,1,27,"English","en",105,"# Risk assessment and ratings\n## External and overall debt distress\n## Threshold breaches and burden drivers\n# Coverage and methodology\n## Debt coverage (central government, guarantees, central bank)\n## Contingent liabilities and shocks\n# Context and policy framework\n## RCF request and staff monitored program\n## Debt sustainability framework for LICs","[{\"question\":\"How does the latest analysis rate Malawi’s external and overall public debt?\",\"answer\":\"Both external and overall public debt are assessed as “in distress,” representing a downgrade from the previous DSA due to ongoing debt restructuring negotiations.\"},{\"question\":\"Which debt indicators breach their thresholds, and when?\",\"answer\":\"Breaches are observed over the medium term for the PV of debt-to-exports, debt service-to-exports, and debt service-to-revenue ratios, with the near-term burden particularly linked to the external debt-to-exports ratio.\"},{\"question\":\"What does the DSA include and exclude in terms of debt coverage?\",\"answer\":\"It covers central government debt, central government guaranteed debt, and central bank debt contracted on behalf of the government, using PPG external and public domestic debt; it excludes debt held by state/local governments, other general government elements, and nonguaranteed SOE debt due to data limitations.\"}]",1784484093,68,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"malawi-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/malawi-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis/110143/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-22","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"How does the latest analysis rate Malawi’s external and overall public debt?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"Both external and overall public debt are assessed as “in distress,” representing a downgrade from the previous DSA due to ongoing debt restructuring negotiations.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Which debt indicators breach their thresholds, and when?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"Breaches are observed over the medium term for the PV of debt-to-exports, debt service-to-exports, and debt service-to-revenue ratios, with the near-term burden particularly linked to the external debt-to-exports ratio.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"What does the DSA include and exclude in terms of debt coverage?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"It covers central government debt, central government guaranteed debt, and central bank debt contracted on behalf of the government, using PPG external and public domestic debt; it excludes debt held by state/local governments, other general government elements, and nonguaranteed SOE debt due to data limitations.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,110,115,120,123,128,131,135],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]