[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-109958-en":3,"doc-seo-109958-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":93},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},109958,687197207919,"Theodora","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/a000253d6f5f7c60be?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1779446848396160552",8,"Research & Report","Malawi - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - September 2020","Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis assesses Malawi’s external and total public debt outlook under the COVID-19-related macroeconomic shock. The document finds moderate risk of external debt distress due to limited shock-absorbing capacity, while overall risk of debt distress remains high. Baseline projections show weak growth in 2020–2021, deterioration in debt ratios, and larger domestic primary deficits financed at high interest. Recommendations emphasize fiscal consolidation combined with stronger domestic debt management and gradual maturity lengthening.","Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION  \nINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nMALAWI  \nJoint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis1  \nSeptember 2020  \nPrepared jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA)  \nand the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \nApproved by Marcello Estevão (IDA), David Robinson and Björn Rother (IMF)  \n1 The analysis presented in this document is based on the debt sustainability framework for low-income countries approved by the Boards of both the International Monetary Fund and the International Development Association. It has been prepared in the context ofthe 2020 request for emergency financing under the IMF’s Rapid Credit Facility. The macroeconomic framework underlying this DSA update is the same as that included in the staff report of the 2020 RCF request which reflects currently available information, including recent global and domestic developments. However, updates with respect to the economic impact and policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic are rapidly evolving and risks are heavily tilted to the downside.  \n\n| Malawi: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate2 |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Limited space to absorb shocks |\n| Application of judgement | No |\n| Macroeconomic projections | Growth is expected to fall to 0.6 percent in 2020 and to 2.2 percent in 2021 (0.4 and 0.3 percentage points below projections in IMF Country Report 20/168)—due to a considerably worsened global and regional economic outlook amid the COVID-19 pandemic and resultant slowdown in domestic activity exacerbated by continued social distancing measures. Economic recovery is expected during 2022-25 with growth averaging 6.4 percent. Over the long-term, growth is expected to stabilize around 5.5 percent. |\n| Financing strategy | External financing in the form of concessional project loans is expected to gradually increase. There is a risk that the pace of this increase may accelerate if the economy’s absorption capacity increases faster than expected. The grant element of project loans will remain relatively high over the forecast period, with no access to market financing.\u003Cbr>Given increased risk to public debt sustainability mainly driven by higher domestic primary deficits, fiscal consolidation efforts should be accompanied by strengthening domestic debt management, including the gradual lengthening of the maturity of debt portfolio as market conditions allow. |\n| Mechanical risk rating under the external DSA | Moderate |\n| Mechanical risk rating under the public DSA | High |\n| 2Malawi’s debt carrying capacity is classified as “medium” according to the composite indicator (CI) score. Malawi’s CI score based on the current vintage (2019 CPIA and 2020 April WEO) is 2.72 and remains unchanged from the previous DSA (April 2020)—both above the threshold value of 2.69 for weak debt carrying capacity. |  |\n\nMalawi is at moderate risk of external debt distress with limited space to absorb shocks and high risk of overall debt distress. Under the baseline scenario reflecting the negative macroeconomic impact and rise in fiscal borrowing in 2020 related to the COVID-19 pandemic and a gradual increase in project loans over the medium term, a moderate rating is maintained for external debt distress. However, the present value of external debt-to-exports ratio is projected to deteriorate, reflecting a slower export recovery—asa result, the country’s capacity to absorb shocks is expected to narrow.  \nWhile debt remains sustainable, Malawi is at high overall risk of debt distress. The present value of total public debt-to-GDP is projected to remain above the benchmark over the projected period under the  \nbaseline scenario. This mainly reflects materially larger domestic primary deficits financed through domestic debt contracted at hig","cbCaieGvuuDJz8Ox","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaieGvuuDJz8Ox","pdf",383454,5,1,12,"English","en",105,"# Executive Summary\n## Debt Distress Risk Ratings\n## Macroeconomic Projections and Financing Strategy\n## Key Drivers and Policy Implications","[{\"question\":\"What are Malawi’s external and overall debt distress risk ratings in the analysis?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis rates Malawi’s external debt distress as moderate and its overall risk of debt distress as high.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the baseline scenario incorporate COVID-19 impacts?\",\"answer\":\"It assumes sharply weaker growth in 2020–2021, worsening domestic primary balances, and deterioration in external accounts as exports and other inflows recover more slowly.\"},{\"question\":\"Which factors drive the projected increase in debt sustainability risks?\",\"answer\":\"Higher domestic primary deficits—driven by revenue shortfalls, increased health and social spending, and policy measures reflected in the 2020/21 budget—lead to financing at high interest rates, especially in FY 2020/21–FY 2021/22.\"}]","Malawi - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - September 2020 | PDF",1784483211,30,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":88,"head_meta":90,"extra_data":92,"updated_unix":29},"malawi-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-september-2020","",{"@graph":37,"@context":87},[38,55,70],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,49,52],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":48},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":50,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":51},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":53,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":54},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/malawi-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-september-2020/109958/",4,{"url":53,"name":13,"@type":56,"author":57,"headline":13,"publisher":59,"fileFormat":62,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":63,"datePublished":64,"encodingFormat":62,"isAccessibleForFree":65,"interactionStatistic":66},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":58},"Person",{"url":42,"name":60,"@type":61},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-29","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":67,"interactionType":68,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":69},"ViewAction",{"@type":71,"mainEntity":72},"FAQPage",[73,79,83],{"name":74,"@type":75,"acceptedAnswer":76},"What are Malawi’s external and overall debt distress risk ratings in the analysis?","Question",{"text":77,"@type":78},"The analysis rates Malawi’s external debt distress as moderate and its overall risk of debt distress as high.","Answer",{"name":80,"@type":75,"acceptedAnswer":81},"How does the baseline scenario incorporate COVID-19 impacts?",{"text":82,"@type":78},"It assumes sharply weaker growth in 2020–2021, worsening domestic primary balances, and deterioration in external accounts as exports and other inflows recover more slowly.",{"name":84,"@type":75,"acceptedAnswer":85},"Which factors drive the projected increase in debt sustainability risks?",{"text":86,"@type":78},"Higher domestic primary deficits—driven by revenue shortfalls, increased health and social spending, and policy measures reflected in the 2020/21 budget—lead to financing at high interest rates, especially in FY 2020/21–FY 2021/22.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":53,"og:type":89,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":60,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":91,"canonical":53},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":94},[95,99,103,107,111,116,121,123,128,131,135],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":96,"show_sort_weight":97,"slug":98},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":48,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":100,"show_sort_weight":101,"slug":102},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":54,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":104,"show_sort_weight":105,"slug":106},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":112,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":113,"show_sort_weight":114,"slug":115},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":117,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":118,"show_sort_weight":119,"slug":120},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":30,"slug":122},"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":20,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]