[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-109813-en":3,"doc-seo-109813-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":92},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},109813,1374391974468,"Eden","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_29158cc5080c5b710cf443261637dec0",8,"Research & Report","Malawi - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - May 2020","Malawi faces a moderate risk of external debt distress but a high overall risk of debt distress, with some space to absorb shocks. The analysis uses the low-income country debt sustainability framework and incorporates 2020 COVID-19 impacts, including a slowdown in GDP growth, deterioration in the domestic primary balance, and a widening current account deficit. Under the baseline, external debt distress remains moderate while total public debt’s present value exceeds benchmarks in the near and medium terms, with domestic high-interest debt driving the rise.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nMALAWI  \nJoint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis 1  \nMay 2020  \nPrepared jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA)  \nand the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \nApproved by Marcello Estevão (IDA), David Robinson and S. Ali Abbas (IMF)  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \n\n| Malawi: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate 2 |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Some space to absorb shocks |\n| Application of judgement | No |\n| Macroeconomic projections | Growth is expected to fall to 1 percent in 2020 and to 2.5 percent in 2021—assuming it will take time for businesses tore-open after a partial lockdown ends and for trade flows to normalize. An economic recovery is expected thereafter, with growth averaging 6.4 percent during 2022-25. Over the longterm, growth is expected to stabilize around 5.5 percent. |\n| Financing strategy | External financing in the form of concessional project loans is expected to gradually increase. There is a risk that the pace of this increase may accelerate if the economy’s absorption capacity increases faster than expected. The grant element of project loans will remain relatively high over the forecast period, with no access to market financing. |\n| Mechanical risk rating under the external DSA | Moderate |\n| Mechanical risk rating under the public DSA | High |\n\n1 The analysis presented in this document is based on the debt sustainability framework for low-income countries approved by the Boards of both the International Monetary Fund and the International Development Association. It has been prepared in the context of the 2020 request for emergency financing under the IMF’s Rapid Credit Facility. The macroeconomic framework underlying this DSA update is the same as that included in the staff report of the 2020 RCF request which reflects currently available information, including recent global and domestic developments. However, updates with respect to the economic impact and policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic are rapidly evolving and risks are heavily tilted to the downside.  \n2 Malawi’s debt carrying capacity is classified as “medium” according to the composite indicator (CI) score. Malawi’s CI score based on the current vintage (2019 CPIA and 2019 October WEO) is 2.84 and was 2.72 in the previous vintage (2018 CPIA and 2019 April WEO)—both above the threshold value of 2.69—resulting in an upgrade of the debt carrying capacity as the CI score has been above the threshold for two consecutive vintages .  \nMalawi is at moderate risk of external debt distress with some space to absorb shocks and high risk of overall debt distress. Under the baseline scenario reflecting the macroeconomic impact and rise in external borrowing in 2020 related to the COVID-19 pandemic and a gradual increase in project loans over the medium term, a moderate rating is maintained for external debt distress with debt carrying capacity upgraded to “medium” -revision in October 2019 . The present value of total public debt to GDP is projected to exceed the benchmark for the near and medium terms and then gradually decline under the baseline scenario . This mainly reflects increasing amounts of domestic debt contracted at high interest rates during FY 2019/20-20/21 .  \nThis DSA incorporates current projections ofthe impact from the COVID-19 pandemic: (i) GDP growth is expected to fall to 1 percent in 2020 and to 2.5 percent in 2021 as a lockdown substantially slows domestic activity, especially in domestic manufacturing and wholesale and retail trade, and the global and resultant regional economic slowdown is weighing on exports, remittances, and foreign direct investment (FDI); (ii) the domestic primary balance is expected to deteriorate (relative to pre-pandemic projections) to-3.4","cbCair5Uo85Qhfnu","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCair5Uo85Qhfnu","pdf",482722,4,1,11,"English","en",105,"# Risk assessment and ratings\n## External debt distress vs overall debt distress\n# Macroeconomic projections\n## Growth outlook and recovery path\n## Financing strategy and access to market financing\n# Methodology and COVID-19 impact assumptions\n## Debt carrying capacity and composite indicator\n## Baseline scenario and debt indicators\n# External Debt Sustainability Framework table\n## Key variables and sustainability indicators","[{\"question\":\"What are the overall and external debt distress risk ratings for Malawi?\",\"answer\":\"The risk of external debt distress is rated moderate, while the overall risk of debt distress is rated high.\"},{\"question\":\"How did the COVID-19 pandemic affect the macroeconomic assumptions in the analysis?\",\"answer\":\"GDP growth is expected to fall to 1% in 2020 and 2.5% in 2021, with deterioration in the domestic primary balance and a widening current account deficit to 18.1% of GDP in 2020.\"},{\"question\":\"What drives the projected increase in public debt relative to benchmarks?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis attributes the mainly rising debt levels to increasing domestic debt contracted at high interest rates during FY 2019/20–20/21.\"}]","Malawi - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - May 2020 | PDF",1784482499,28,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":87,"head_meta":89,"extra_data":91,"updated_unix":29},"malawi-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-may-2020","",{"@graph":37,"@context":86},[38,54,69],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,49,52],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":48},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":50,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":51},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":53,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/malawi-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-may-2020/109813/",{"url":53,"name":13,"@type":55,"author":56,"headline":13,"publisher":58,"fileFormat":61,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":62,"datePublished":63,"encodingFormat":61,"isAccessibleForFree":64,"interactionStatistic":65},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":57},"Person",{"url":42,"name":59,"@type":60},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-30","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":66,"interactionType":67,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":68},"ViewAction",{"@type":70,"mainEntity":71},"FAQPage",[72,78,82],{"name":73,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":75},"What are the overall and external debt distress risk ratings for Malawi?","Question",{"text":76,"@type":77},"The risk of external debt distress is rated moderate, while the overall risk of debt distress is rated high.","Answer",{"name":79,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":80},"How did the COVID-19 pandemic affect the macroeconomic assumptions in the analysis?",{"text":81,"@type":77},"GDP growth is expected to fall to 1% in 2020 and 2.5% in 2021, with deterioration in the domestic primary balance and a widening current account deficit to 18.1% of GDP in 2020.",{"name":83,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":84},"What drives the projected increase in public debt relative to benchmarks?",{"text":85,"@type":77},"The analysis attributes the mainly rising debt levels to increasing domestic debt contracted at high interest rates during FY 2019/20–20/21.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":53,"og:type":88,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":59,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":90,"canonical":53},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":93},[94,98,102,106,111,116,121,124,129,132,136],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":95,"show_sort_weight":96,"slug":97},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":48,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":99,"show_sort_weight":100,"slug":101},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":103,"show_sort_weight":104,"slug":105},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":107,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":112,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":113,"show_sort_weight":114,"slug":115},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":117,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":118,"show_sort_weight":119,"slug":120},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":122,"slug":123},30,"research-report",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":126,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":128},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":127,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":130,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":131},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":133,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":134,"show_sort_weight":133,"slug":135},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":137,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":138,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":139},19,"General","general"]