[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110900-en":3,"doc-seo-110900-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},110900,1374391974564,"Clementine","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/14000253aa45c000a9e?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1779874745381141002",8,"Research & Report","Madagascar - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - March 2021","Madagascar is assessed under a joint World Bank–IMF debt sustainability framework at moderate risk of external and overall debt distress, despite the pandemic’s large impact and the country’s medium debt-carrying capacity. Under the baseline, external debt indicators remain within public and publicly guaranteed thresholds, but export shocks are projected to breach key thresholds later in the horizon. Liquidity pressures may emerge as debt-service-to-revenue approaches or exceeds 70% under both baseline and stress scenarios. The analysis includes comprehensive public debt coverage and simulates contingent liabilities.","Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nREPUBLIC OF MADAGASCAR  \nJoint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis  \nMarch 2021  \nPrepared jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA1)  \nand the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Approved by Marcello Estevão (IDA), Vivek Arora and Geremia Palomba (IMF)  \n\n| Madagascar: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Some space to absorb shocks |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nDespite the large impact of the pandemic, Madagascar, classified as having a medium debt carrying capacity, is assessed at moderate risk of external debt distress with some space to absorb shocksand moderate risk of overall debt distress, in line with the August 2020 assessment. While the baseline does not breach any external public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt thresholds, under an export shock, the present value of debt-to-exports and debt service ratios breach the thresholds towards the latter half of the horizon, assuming the continued mobilization of concessional financing (including grants) in the short term. Overall (external plus domestic) risk of debt distress remains moderate due to the external PPG debt rating; the previous DSA also had a moderate overall risk of debt distress. Total public debt is below the benchmark under the baseline, but a growth shock drives the present value of debt to GDP towards the benchmark at the end of the period, despite not breaching it. Liquidity pressures may materialize as the debt-service-to-revenue ratio could near or exceed 70 percent in the near term under both the baseline and shocks. The government has some space to scale-up investment, assuming ongoing efforts to improve domestic resource mobilization, continued reliance on concessional external financing, and progress in developing domestic bond markets. The current assessment also reflects the participation in the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI), supported by the G-20 and Paris Club, and the IMF’s Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust (CCRT) . Updates with respect to COVID-19’s economic impact (both domestically and externally) and policy response are rapidly evolving and risks remain tilted to the downside, including the heightened risk of the materialization of contingent liabilities, which could lead to a faster than expected deterioration in external and public debt indicators. However, the distance to risk thresholds under current baseline projections suggests some space to absorb additional shocks.  \n1 Prepared by the IMF and the World Bank. This DSA follows the Guidance Note of the Join Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries, February 2018.  \nPUBLIC DEBT COVERAGE  \n1. The DSA includes public and publicly guaranteed external and domestic debt. In line with coverage under the August 2020 DSA, public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt reflects external and domestic debt, including: all external liabilities held by the central bank; all borrowing from the IMF; non-guaranteed domestic debts owed by state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in cases where the government has at least 50 percent of the shares (e.g., JIRAMA and Air Madagascar);2 and direct guarantees provided by the central government (Text Table 1). Borrowing by local governments requires the authorization from the Ministry of Finance and no request of such authorization has been submitted to date. The measure of debt is on a gross basis and the currency criterion is used to distinguish between domestic and external debt.3 The authorities publish debt data on a quarterly basis on domestic and external debt. Reporting of debt statistics on public enterprises needs to be strengthened further.  \n\n| Text Table 1. Madagascar: Public Debt Coverage Under th","cbCaijXDrNq000Nt","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaijXDrNq000Nt","pdf",1893077,1,22,"English","en",105,"# Executive Summary\n# Debt Distress Risk Assessment\n## External PPG Debt Distress Risk\n## Overall Debt Distress Risk\n# Debt Coverage and Methodology\n## Public Debt Coverage\n## Contingent Liabilities Stress Test","[{\"question\":\"What is Madagascar’s assessed risk level in this joint debt sustainability analysis?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis classifies Madagascar at moderate risk of external debt distress and moderate risk of overall debt distress.\"},{\"question\":\"Do the baseline projections breach external public and publicly guaranteed debt thresholds?\",\"answer\":\"No. The baseline does not breach external public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt thresholds, though breaches occur under export shock scenarios later in the horizon.\"},{\"question\":\"How might liquidity pressures affect debt sustainability?\",\"answer\":\"Liquidity pressures may materialize because the debt-service-to-revenue ratio could near or exceed 70% in the near term under both baseline and shocks.\"}]",1784487627,55,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"madagascar-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-march-2021","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/madagascar-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-march-2021/110900/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-22","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What is Madagascar’s assessed risk level in this joint debt sustainability analysis?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"The analysis classifies Madagascar at moderate risk of external debt distress and moderate risk of overall debt distress.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Do the baseline projections breach external public and publicly guaranteed debt thresholds?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"No. The baseline does not breach external public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt thresholds, though breaches occur under export shock scenarios later in the horizon.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"How might liquidity pressures affect debt sustainability?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"Liquidity pressures may materialize because the debt-service-to-revenue ratio could near or exceed 70% in the near term under both baseline and 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