[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-109837-en":3,"doc-seo-109837-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":92},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},109837,962075114765,"Quinn","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_a8503ba1806abce46bf441b54a3ca4cd",8,"Research & Report","Madagascar - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - January 2020","Joint World Bank–IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis for Madagascar assesses risks to external and overall debt distress under a baseline scenario and stress tests. The report finds low risk of external debt distress, while overall risk remains moderate because total public debt stays below benchmarks in the baseline but a growth shock pushes the present value of debt-to-GDP above the benchmark persistently. It also highlights potential liquidity stress if debt-service-to-revenue exceeds 75% long term and notes factors that could worsen external and public indicators faster than expected.","Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION  \nINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nREPULIC OF MADAGASCAR  \nJoint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis  \nJanuary 2020  \nPrepared jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA)  \nand the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Approved by Marcello Estevão (IDA) David Owen and Zuzana Murgasova (IMF)  \n\n| Madagascar-Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Low |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | n/a |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nMadagascar, classified as having a medium level of debt carrying capacity, is assessed at low risk of external debt distress, in line with the July 2019 DSA.1 Under the baseline, external public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt is well below applicable thresholds and stress tests do not breach the thresholds. Overall (external plus domestic) risk of debt distress remains moderate, consistent with the July 2019 DSA. Total public debt is below the benchmark under the baseline, but a growth shock drives the present value of debt to GDP above the benchmark at the end of the projection period and it is on a persistent upward trajectory. Moreover, shocks could introduce liquidity problems, as the debt-service to revenue ratio could exceed 75 percent over the long term under the growth shock. These assessments continue to be supportive of Madagascar’s plans to scale up its borrowing to meet its investment needs; however, several factors—a faster execution of the government’s ambitious medium-term borrowing, poorly selected public investment projects, and less favorable financing terms—may lead to a faster than expected deterioration in external and public debt indicators.  \n1 Madagascar has a Composite Indicator score of 2.82 and is classed as having medium debt-carrying capacity.  \nPUBLIC DEBT COVERAGE  \n1. This DSA includes debt coverage of public and publicly guaranteed external and domestic debt, including State-owned Enterprises’ domestic debt as well as central bank external liabilities (Text Table 1). This is in line with coverage under the July 2019 DSA (Text Table 1). PPG debt includes all external liabilities held by the central bank, including all borrowing from the IMF; debts owed by state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in cases where the government has at least 50 percent of the shares; and direct guarantees provided by the central government. Borrowing by local governments requires the authorization from the Ministry of Finance and no request of such authorization has been submitted to date. The measure of debt is on a gross basis and the currency criterion is used to distinguish between domestic and external debt.2  \n\n| Text Table 1. Madagascar: Public Debt Coverage Under the Baseline Scenario |  |  |  |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- |\n|  |  |  |  |\n|  | 1\u003Cbr>2\u003Cbr>3\u003Cbr>4\u003Cbr>5\u003Cbr>6\u003Cbr>7\u003Cbr>8 | Subsectors of the public sector Sub-sectors covered |  |\n|  |  | Central government X\u003Cbr>State and local government X\u003Cbr>Other elements in the general government o/w: Social security fund\u003Cbr>o/w: Extra budgetary funds (EBFs)\u003Cbr>Guarantees (to other entities in the public and private sector, including to SOEs) X Central bank (borrowed on behalf of the government) X Non-guaranteed SOE debt X |  |\n|  |  |  |  |\n\n| Text Table 2. Madagascar: Coverage of the Contingent Liabilities’ Stress Test |\n| --- |\n| 1 The country's coverage of public debt The central, state, and local governments, central bank, government-guaranteed debt, non-guaranteed S Default Used for\u003Cbr>the analysis Reasons for deviations from the default settings 2 Other elements of the general government not captured in 1. 0 percent of GDP 0.0 3 SoE's debt (guaranteed and not guaranteed by the government) 1/ 2 percent of GDP 2.0 Captures potential additional contingent liabilities not captured in the available data from SOEs. 4 PPP 35 p","cbCaialPb7MyMzkQ","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaialPb7MyMzkQ","pdf",531531,4,1,21,"English","en",105,"# Risk assessment and macro-fiscal results\n## External debt distress risk\n## Overall debt distress risk and shock scenarios\n# Public debt coverage methodology\n## Included debt categories and measurement basis\n# Contingent liabilities stress testing\n## Coverage assumptions for SOEs, PPPs, and financial markets","[{\"question\":\"What is the assessed risk of external debt distress for Madagascar?\",\"answer\":\"The report assesses Madagascar as low risk of external debt distress, consistent with the July 2019 DSA.\"},{\"question\":\"Why does the overall risk of debt distress remain moderate?\",\"answer\":\"Although total public debt is below the baseline benchmark, a growth shock drives the present value of debt-to-GDP above the benchmark at the end of the projection period and keeps it on a persistently upward trajectory.\"},{\"question\":\"How are contingent liabilities handled in the stress test coverage?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis assumes a shock of 7 percent of GDP and includes estimates for SOEs where the government has a majority stake (domestic), sets PPP exposures to zero given their small GDP share in the World Bank PPP database, and uses a programmed default value for financial markets.\"}]","Madagascar - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - January 2020 | PDF",1784482619,53,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":87,"head_meta":89,"extra_data":91,"updated_unix":29},"madagascar-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-january-2020","",{"@graph":37,"@context":86},[38,54,69],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,49,52],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":48},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":50,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":51},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":53,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/madagascar-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-january-2020/109837/",{"url":53,"name":13,"@type":55,"author":56,"headline":13,"publisher":58,"fileFormat":61,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":62,"datePublished":63,"encodingFormat":61,"isAccessibleForFree":64,"interactionStatistic":65},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":57},"Person",{"url":42,"name":59,"@type":60},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-08-02","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":66,"interactionType":67,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":68},"ViewAction",{"@type":70,"mainEntity":71},"FAQPage",[72,78,82],{"name":73,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":75},"What is the assessed risk of external debt distress for Madagascar?","Question",{"text":76,"@type":77},"The report assesses Madagascar as low risk of external debt distress, consistent with the July 2019 DSA.","Answer",{"name":79,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":80},"Why does the overall risk of debt distress remain moderate?",{"text":81,"@type":77},"Although total public debt is below the baseline benchmark, a growth shock drives the present value of debt-to-GDP above the benchmark at the end of the projection period and keeps it on a persistently upward trajectory.",{"name":83,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":84},"How are contingent liabilities handled in the stress test coverage?",{"text":85,"@type":77},"The analysis assumes a shock of 7 percent of GDP and includes estimates for SOEs where the government has a majority stake (domestic), sets PPP exposures to zero given their small GDP share in the World Bank PPP database, and uses a programmed default value for financial markets.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":53,"og:type":88,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":59,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":90,"canonical":53},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":93},[94,98,102,106,111,116,121,124,129,132,136],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":95,"show_sort_weight":96,"slug":97},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":48,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":99,"show_sort_weight":100,"slug":101},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":103,"show_sort_weight":104,"slug":105},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":107,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":112,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":113,"show_sort_weight":114,"slug":115},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":117,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":118,"show_sort_weight":119,"slug":120},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":122,"slug":123},30,"research-report",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":126,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":128},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":127,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":130,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":131},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":133,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":134,"show_sort_weight":133,"slug":135},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":137,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":138,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":139},19,"General","general"]