[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-109611-en":3,"doc-seo-109611-105":30,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":92},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":11,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":27,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":28,"read_time":29},109611,7971461740886,"Theodore","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_3d24733baf745e90a7e4bdd5f77d97b2",8,"Research & Report","Madagascar - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - April 2020","Joint World Bank-IMF debt sustainability analysis for Madagascar assesses external and overall debt distress risk and sets out a baseline framework for 2016–2039. The external risk of distress is rated low, while overall risk is moderate, with no judgment applied in the risk rating. A COVID-19 tailored stress test shocks key macro variables in 2020 and shows external public and publicly guaranteed debt remains below applicable thresholds, yet growth shocks push the present value of debt-to-GDP above the benchmark later in the projection period.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION  \nINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nMADAGASCAR  \nJOINT WORLD BANK-IMF DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS  \nApril 2020  \nPrepared jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA)  \nand the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Approved by Marcello Estevão (IDA) and Philip Gerson (EUR)  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \n\n| Madagascar: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis1 |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Low |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | n/a |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\n1 Country Report No. 20/61 (March 2020) contains the latest DSA conducted jointly with the World Bank.  \nMadagascar, classified as having a medium level of debt carrying capacity, is assessed at low risk of external debt distress, in line with the most recent DSA that was published in March 2020.2 A customized stress test to the most recent DSA is introduced to approximate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Madagascar’s economy.3 In this scenario, main macro variables such as real GDP growth and the domestic primary balance in percent of GDP are shocked by-3.6 and- 1.4 percentage points in 2020, respectively, compared to the baseline in the previous DSA. Exports are shocked by-4.0 percentage points, to reflect lower receipts from tourism and goods exports due to weakening global demand, resulting in an increase in the current account deficit by 1 percentage point for 2020 relative to the prior DSA. Under the COVID-19 scenario, external public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt is well below applicable thresholdsand other stress tests do not breach the thresholds. Overall (external plus domestic) risk of debt distress remains moderate. Total public debt is below the benchmark under the COVID-19 scenario, but a growth shock continues to drive the present value of debt to GDP above the benchmark at the end of the projection period and it is on a persistent upward trajectory. Moreover, shocks could introduce liquidity problems, as the debt-service to revenue ratio could exceed 75 percent over the long term under the growth shock. These assessments continue to be supportive of Madagascar’s plans to scale up its borrowing to meet its investment needs; however, updates with respect to economic impact and policy response tothe COVID-19 crisis are rapidly evolving and risks are heavily tilted to the downside, which could lead to a faster than expected deterioration in external and public debt indicators  \n2 Madagascar has a Composite Indicator score of 2.82 and is classed as having medium debt-carrying capacity. The DSA covers public and publicly guaranteed external and domestic debt, including State-owned Enterprises’ domestic debt and central bank external liabilities.  \n3 The COVID-19 pandemic scenario is based on the revised baseline projections outlined in the Staff Report, while other scenarios, includingthe baseline in this Annex, are based on the previous DSA.  \nTable A1.1. Madagascar: External Debt Sustainability Framework, Baseline Scenario, 2016–2039  \n(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)  \nTable A1.2. Madagascar: Public Sector Debt Sustainability Framework, Baseline Scenario, 2016–2039  \n(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)  \nActual Projections Average 6/  \nPublic sector debt 1/ of which: external debt  \nChange in public sector debt  \nIdentified debt-creating flows Primary deficit  \nRevenue and grants of which: grants  \nPrimary (noninterest) expenditure  \nAutomatic debt dynamics  \nContribution from interest rate/growth differential of which: contribution from average real interest rate  \nof which: contribution from real GDP growth Contribution from real exchange rate depreciation  \nOther identified debt-creating flows  \nPrivatization receipts (negative)  \nRecognition of contingent liabilities (e.g., bank recapitalization) Debt relief (HIPC and other)  \nOther debt creating","cbCaiuwEz1GYPIEc","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiuwEz1GYPIEc","pdf",1648327,5,1,"English","en",105,"# Risk of Debt Distress Assessment\n## External Debt Distress Risk Rating\n## Overall Debt Distress Risk Rating\n# COVID-19 Scenario and Stress Test\n## Macroeconomic Shocks and Transmission\n## Threshold Breaches and Debt Indicators\n# Debt Sustainability Framework Tables (2016–2039)\n## External Debt Sustainability Framework - Baseline Scenario\n## Public Sector Debt Sustainability Framework - Baseline Scenario\n## Sustainability Indicators and Macroeconomic Assumptions","[{\"question\":\"How are Madagascar’s external and overall debt distress risks rated in the analysis?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis rates the risk of external debt distress as low and the overall risk of debt distress as moderate. Granularity in the risk rating is listed as n/a, with no judgment applied.\"},{\"question\":\"What does the COVID-19 stress test change in Madagascar’s baseline projections?\",\"answer\":\"The COVID-19 scenario introduces shocks to real GDP growth and the domestic primary balance in 2020, as well as an export shock reflecting weaker tourism and goods exports. These shocks worsen the current account deficit for 2020 and affect debt dynamics thereafter.\"},{\"question\":\"Do debt indicators breach thresholds under the COVID-19 scenario?\",\"answer\":\"External public and publicly guaranteed debt remains well below applicable thresholds under the COVID-19 scenario, and other stress tests do not breach thresholds. However, growth shocks keep the present value of debt-to-GDP above the benchmark toward the end of the projection period and may create liquidity pressures.\"}]","Madagascar - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - April 2020 | PDF",1784481518,20,{"code":4,"msg":31,"data":32},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":33,"title":13,"keywords":34,"description":14,"schema_data":35,"social_meta":87,"head_meta":89,"extra_data":91,"updated_unix":28},"madagascar-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-april-2020","",{"@graph":36,"@context":86},[37,54,69],{"@type":38,"itemListElement":39},"BreadcrumbList",[40,44,48,51],{"item":41,"name":42,"@type":43,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":45,"name":46,"@type":43,"position":47},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":49,"name":12,"@type":43,"position":50},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":52,"name":13,"@type":43,"position":53},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/madagascar-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-april-2020/109611/",4,{"url":52,"name":13,"@type":55,"author":56,"headline":13,"publisher":58,"fileFormat":61,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":62,"datePublished":63,"encodingFormat":61,"isAccessibleForFree":64,"interactionStatistic":65},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":57},"Person",{"url":41,"name":59,"@type":60},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-08-04","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":66,"interactionType":67,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":68},"ViewAction",{"@type":70,"mainEntity":71},"FAQPage",[72,78,82],{"name":73,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":75},"How are Madagascar’s external and overall debt distress risks rated in the analysis?","Question",{"text":76,"@type":77},"The analysis rates the risk of external debt distress as low and the overall risk of debt distress as moderate. Granularity in the risk rating is listed as n/a, with no judgment applied.","Answer",{"name":79,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":80},"What does the COVID-19 stress test change in Madagascar’s baseline projections?",{"text":81,"@type":77},"The COVID-19 scenario introduces shocks to real GDP growth and the domestic primary balance in 2020, as well as an export shock reflecting weaker tourism and goods exports. These shocks worsen the current account deficit for 2020 and affect debt dynamics thereafter.",{"name":83,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":84},"Do debt indicators breach thresholds under the COVID-19 scenario?",{"text":85,"@type":77},"External public and publicly guaranteed debt remains well below applicable thresholds under the COVID-19 scenario, and other stress tests do not breach thresholds. However, growth shocks keep the present value of debt-to-GDP above the benchmark toward the end of the projection period and may create liquidity pressures.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":52,"og:type":88,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":59,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":90,"canonical":52},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":93},[94,98,102,106,110,115,120,123,127,130,134],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":95,"show_sort_weight":96,"slug":97},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":47,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":99,"show_sort_weight":100,"slug":101},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":53,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":103,"show_sort_weight":104,"slug":105},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":29,"slug":126},9,"Religion & Spirituality","religion-spirituality",{"id":29,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":128,"show_sort_weight":29,"slug":129},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":131,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":132,"show_sort_weight":131,"slug":133},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":135,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":136,"show_sort_weight":20,"slug":137},19,"General","general"]