[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111641-en":3,"doc-seo-111641-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":95},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111641,7971461740909,"Levi","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_155a257f0dc6eb9ab79c44ca47cae57d",8,"Research & Report","Madagascar - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - External debt distress risk and overall risk assessment","Madagascar, with a medium debt-carrying capacity, is assessed at moderate risk of external debt distress and moderate overall debt distress, unchanged from February 2023. Under the baseline, no external public and publicly guaranteed ratios breach thresholds; only an exports shock pushes key present-value and debt-service indicators above their limits. Overall risk remains “moderate” because the debt-to-GDP benchmark is breached under stress tests, especially a commodity-price shock. The granularity assessment indicates some room to absorb shocks, and the government can scale investment if it sustains domestic resource mobilization, concessional financing, and domestic bond-market development, though downside risks persist from governance and service-performance challenges.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Hassan Zaman (IDA) and Costas Christou and Geremia Palomba (IMF) .  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .1  \n\n| MADAGASCAR: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Some space to absorb shocks |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nMadagascar, classified as having medium debt carrying capacity, is still assessed at moderate risk of external debt distress and moderate risk of overall (external plus domestic) debt distress, unchanged from the assessment of the last DSA in February 2023.2 Under the baseline, no external public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt ratios breach their thresholds and only a shock to exports pushes Madagascar’s present value of external-debt-to-export ratio and the debt service-to-exports ratio above their thresholds. Likewise, the overall risk of debt distress continues to be assessed as “moderate”, since the overall debt-to-GDP ratio breaches its benchmark under two stress scenarios, a shock to real GDP growth and a shock to commodity price (the latter being the most extreme shock) . The granularity assessment shows that the government has some space to absorb shocks. The government has also space to scale-up investment, assuming ongoing efforts to improve domestic resource mobilization, continued reliance on concessional external financing, and progress in developing domestic bond markets and in the implementation of the governance reform agenda. Risks remain tilted to the downside, with a potential lack of progress on JIRAMA, the state-owned electricity utility and water services company, putting pressure on public finances.  \n1 Prepared by the IMF and the World Bank. This Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) follows the Guidance Note of the Join Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries  , February 2018 and the Guidance Note for Fund Staff on the Treatment and Use of SDR Allocations , August 2021.  \n2 Madagascar’s composite indicator (2 .74) has slightly declined since the last DSA (2 .77) and corresponds to a medium debtcarrying capacity as confirmed by the October 2023 WEO data and the 2022 Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) . While the indicator is inching closer to the weak debt carrying capacity threshold (2 .69), the LIC DSF Guidance note indicates that the classification would only be revised “if two consecutive signals suggest the need for an upgrade or downgrade.”  \n1. The DSA includes public and publicly guaranteed external and domestic debt. Public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt comprises external and domestic debt in a fairly comprehensive manner, including: all external liabilities owed by the central bank; all borrowing from the IMF; government guarantees; non-guaranteed domestic debts owed by state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in cases where the government has at least 50 percent of the shares (e.g. , JIRAMA and Air Madagascar);3 domestic arrears (which rose slightly from 1 percent of GDP in 2022 to 1.1 percent in 2023);4 external legacy arrears of about 1.3 percent of GDP (related to HIPC);5 and direct guarantees provided by the central government (Text Table 1) . Borrowing by local governments requires the authorization from the Ministry of Finance and no request for such authorization has been submitted to date. The measure of debt is on a gross basis and the currency criterion is used to distinguish between domestic and external debt.6 The authorities publish data on a quarterly basis on both domestic and external debt. Reporting of debt statistics on public enterprises needs to be strengthened further, particularly by: (i) requiring all public enterprises to submit financial statements to the Ministry of Finance within legal limits","cbCaiszNdc1BOy5W","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiszNdc1BOy5W","pdf",771845,1,24,"English","en",105,"# Risk of external debt distress\n## Overall risk of debt distress\n## Assessment methodology and judgment\n# Debt coverage and data reporting scope\n## Stress scenarios and thresholds\n## Granularity and policy implications","[{\"question\":\"Madagascar’s assessed risk level for external debt distress and overall debt distress是什么？\",\"answer\":\"外部债务困境风险与整体（外部加国内）债务困境风险均被评为“中等（moderate）”。结论与2023年2月的上一次DSA保持一致。\"},{\"question\":\"在基准情景下哪些指标会触及阈值，触发点是什么？\",\"answer\":\"基准情景下外部公共及有政府担保债务的比率不触及阈值。只有出口冲击会使外债现值/出口和债务偿付/出口等指标上升并超过阈值。\"},{\"question\":\"为什么整体风险仍为“moderate”？涉及哪些压力情景？\",\"answer\":\"整体风险因在两项压力情景下总债务/GDP的基准被突破而维持“中等”评估。其中包括实际GDP增速冲击，以及大宗商品价格冲击（后者最为极端）。\"},{\"question\":\"DSA对“债务范围”和数据披露包含哪些关键要素？\",\"answer\":\"分析包含公共及有政府担保的外债和内债，并按总额口径区分国内外。范围涵盖中央银行对外负债、IMF借款、政府担保、部分国有企业的国内未担保债务、国内拖欠（含VAT退税延付）、与HIPC相关的外部历史拖欠，以及中央政府提供的直接担保；同时指出需进一步加强对公共企业债务统计的披露与上报。\"}]",1784491041,60,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":90,"head_meta":92,"extra_data":94,"updated_unix":27},"madagascar-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-external-debt-distress-risk-and-overall-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":89},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/madagascar-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-external-debt-distress-risk-and-overall-risk-assessment/111641/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81,85],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"Madagascar’s assessed risk level for external debt distress and overall debt distress是什么？","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"外部债务困境风险与整体（外部加国内）债务困境风险均被评为“中等（moderate）”。结论与2023年2月的上一次DSA保持一致。","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"在基准情景下哪些指标会触及阈值，触发点是什么？",{"text":80,"@type":76},"基准情景下外部公共及有政府担保债务的比率不触及阈值。只有出口冲击会使外债现值/出口和债务偿付/出口等指标上升并超过阈值。",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"为什么整体风险仍为“moderate”？涉及哪些压力情景？",{"text":84,"@type":76},"整体风险因在两项压力情景下总债务/GDP的基准被突破而维持“中等”评估。其中包括实际GDP增速冲击，以及大宗商品价格冲击（后者最为极端）。",{"name":86,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":87},"DSA对“债务范围”和数据披露包含哪些关键要素？",{"text":88,"@type":76},"分析包含公共及有政府担保的外债和内债，并按总额口径区分国内外。范围涵盖中央银行对外负债、IMF借款、政府担保、部分国有企业的国内未担保债务、国内拖欠（含VAT退税延付）、与HIPC相关的外部历史拖欠，以及中央政府提供的直接担保；同时指出需进一步加强对公共企业债务统计的披露与上报。","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":91,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":93,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":96},[97,101,105,109,113,118,123,126,131,134,138],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":106,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":108},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":110,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":111,"show_sort_weight":28,"slug":112},5,"Comic","comic",{"id":114,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":115,"show_sort_weight":116,"slug":117},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":119,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":120,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":124,"slug":125},30,"research-report",{"id":127,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":128,"show_sort_weight":129,"slug":130},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":129,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":132,"show_sort_weight":129,"slug":133},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":135,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":136,"show_sort_weight":135,"slug":137},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":139,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":140,"show_sort_weight":110,"slug":141},19,"General","general"]