[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-117446-en":3,"doc-seo-117446-105":30,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":27,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":28,"read_time":29},117446,1374391975076,"Riley","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/14000253ca4ec9f6853?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1783305029341752051",8,"Research & Report","Machine Learning for Sports Betting - NBA Over/Under Total Points Prediction","Sports betting legalization has accelerated interest in applying machine learning to improve bet selection and predict outcomes. This research addresses core modeling challenges including data selection, feature engineering, and handling time series behavior, while also considering gambling-related ethics, model accuracy, and transparency. The project specifically builds a machine learning model to predict the total combined score in NBA games, targeting the Over/Under bet (Over above the sportsbook line, Under below) with the aim of improving predictive reliability.","Machine Learning for Sports Betting  \nHank Rugg Department of Mathematics Theodore Wendt, PhD June 5, 2024  \nAbstract  \nWith sports betting becoming more widely legal, the use of machine learning algorithms for improving an individual’s odds of placing successful sports bets has increased. In general, applying machine learning algorithms comes with challenges such as data selection, feature engineering, and dealing with time series data. In the context of gambling, it also comes with ethical considerations such as the use of such models to gamble, the accuracy of the model, and the transparency of the model. This research focuses specifically on predicting the total combined score of NBA games. This is directly applicable to the Over/Under bet – “Over” if you believe the combined total score will be above the number set by the sportsbook and “Under” if you believe the combined score will be less than the number set by the sports book. The goal of this research is to create a machine learning model that can accurately predict the total combined score of NBA games.  \nIntroduction  \nThe objective of this project is to create a model that can be used to predict the outcome of the over/under bet. There are three potential outcomes for this bet: over, under, and push. \"Over\"occurs when the total points scored at the end of the game exceed the line set by the sportsbook.\"Under\" happens when the total points scored at the end of the game are below the line set by the sportsbook. Finally, \"push\" arises when the total points scored at the end of the game exactly match the line set by the sportsbook. Push is a relatively rare outcome, as most sportsbooks set the line at half numbers, making exact matches less common. To be profitable, the bettor must be over 53% accurate in their bets due to the payouts by sportsbooks (Jensen, 2022) .  \nBackground  \nThere are many types of sports bets, some common types include Moneyline, Spread, and Parlays. Moneyline is based on the outright winner of the game, regardless of the amount of points scored. This is one of the most popular bets and is quite easy to understand. Another bet is the Spread. This is also betting on who will win the game, yet by how much, which is where the spread comes in. Say the Celtics are-11.5 point favorites over the Pistons. This means the Celtics are favored to win by over 11 points. If someone bets on the Pistons to “cover the spread,” this means the Pistons can lose by up to 11 points and that person will still win the bet. Any bets can be combined into a Parlay which is multiple bets combined into one. This means all “legs” of the Parlay must hit for the bettor to win. If at least one of the legs misses, the bet is lost and the bettor does not win any money.  \nSports betting has been a contentious topic since its inception, often associated with wrongful outcomes of games due to bribery. The passage of laws, notably the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PAPSA) in 1992, outlawed sports betting in states that did not already permit it, leaving Nevada as the sole legal state (Bonesteel, 2022) . After decades of controversy and illegal betting activities, the Supreme Court deemed PAPSA unconstitutional, allowing individual states to enact their own sports betting laws (Bonesteel, 2022) .  \nIn 2018, Delaware was the first state aside from Nevada to introduce sports betting and is home to the first non-Nevadan sportsbook, DraftKings (Bonesteel, 2022) . Some form of sports betting is available in over half of the states, with many restricting different forms of betting in efforts to promote safe betting practices (CBS Sports Staff, Bengel, McCariston, 2023) . In Montana, sports betting is available through in-person betting at approved locations through the Montana Lottery.  \nRelevant Work  \nIn the paper, The Bank is Open: AI in Sports Betting, Bucquet and Sarukkai use a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural network to predict the outcome of Over/Under bets in th","cbCaiookbt5iILUp","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiookbt5iILUp","pdf",630895,1,15,"English","en",105,"# Abstract\n# Introduction\n# Background\n# Relevant Work\n# Machine Learning Models","[{\"question\":\"What bet type does the project focus on in NBA games?\",\"answer\":\"The project targets the Over/Under bet by predicting the total combined score. “Over” corresponds to totals above the sportsbook line, while “Under” corresponds to totals below it.\"},{\"question\":\"What are the possible outcomes of an Over/Under bet?\",\"answer\":\"The outcomes are Over, Under, and Push. Push happens when the final combined total matches the sportsbook line, which is described as relatively rare.\"},{\"question\":\"Which modeling issues are highlighted when applying machine learning to betting?\",\"answer\":\"Key challenges include data selection, feature engineering, and dealing with time series data, along with ethical considerations such as model use, accuracy, and transparency.\"}]","Machine Learning for Sports Betting - NBA Over/Under Total Points Prediction | PDF",1785675906,38,{"code":4,"msg":31,"data":32},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":33,"title":13,"keywords":34,"description":14,"schema_data":35,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":28},"machine-learning-for-sports-betting-nba-overunder-total-points-prediction","",{"@graph":36,"@context":85},[37,54,68],{"@type":38,"itemListElement":39},"BreadcrumbList",[40,44,48,51],{"item":41,"name":42,"@type":43,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":45,"name":46,"@type":43,"position":47},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":49,"name":12,"@type":43,"position":50},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":52,"name":13,"@type":43,"position":53},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/machine-learning-for-sports-betting-nba-overunder-total-points-prediction/117446/",4,{"url":52,"name":13,"@type":55,"author":56,"headline":13,"publisher":58,"fileFormat":61,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":62,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":61,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":57},"Person",{"url":41,"name":59,"@type":60},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-08-02",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What bet type does the project focus on in NBA games?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"The project targets the Over/Under bet by predicting the total combined score. “Over” corresponds to totals above the sportsbook line, while “Under” corresponds to totals below it.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"What are the possible outcomes of an Over/Under bet?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"The outcomes are Over, Under, and Push. Push happens when the final combined total matches the sportsbook line, which is described as relatively rare.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"Which modeling issues are highlighted when applying machine learning to betting?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"Key challenges include data selection, feature engineering, and dealing with time series data, along with ethical considerations such as model use, accuracy, and transparency.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":52,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":59,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":52},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,110,115,120,123,128,131,135],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":47,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":53,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]