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Covers introductory actuarial modeling for property and casualty insurance, focusing on frequency, severity, and aggregate models used in short-term actuarial work. Students learn to calculate moments, percentiles, generating functions, derive distribution relationships, apply credibility procedures, calibrate and evaluate models, and estimate losses with confidence measures, including VAR and TVAR and parametric model construction and selection via classical and Bayesian methods.",{"@graph":69,"@context":122},[70,84,105],{"@type":71,"itemListElement":72},"BreadcrumbList",[73,77,79,82],{"item":74,"name":75,"@type":76,"position":8},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":78,"name":9,"@type":76,"position":14},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/",{"item":80,"name":20,"@type":76,"position":81},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/exam/",3,{"item":83,"name":65,"@type":76,"position":19},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/m-339j-probability-models-with-actuarial-applications-spring-2019/399193/",{"url":83,"name":65,"@type":85,"image":86,"author":91,"headline":65,"publisher":94,"fileFormat":97,"inLanguage":63,"description":67,"dateModified":98,"datePublished":99,"encodingFormat":97,"isAccessibleForFree":100,"interactionStatistic":101},"DigitalDocument",{"url":87,"@type":88,"width":89,"height":90},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/m-339j-probability-models-with-actuarial-applications-spring-2019/399193.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":92,"@type":93},"Connor ","Person",{"url":74,"name":95,"@type":96},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-11-01","2026-09-27",true,{"@type":102,"interactionType":103,"userInteractionCount":52},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":104},"ViewAction",{"@type":106,"mainEntity":107},"FAQPage",[108,114,118],{"name":109,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":111},"What course prerequisites are required for M 339J?","Question",{"text":112,"@type":113},"Students need M 362K (Probability) with a grade of C- or better, plus at least one of M 358K (Applied Statistics) or M 378K (Mathematical Statistics) with a grade of C- or better.","Answer",{"name":115,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":116},"What major topics are included in the learning outcomes for M 339J?",{"text":117,"@type":113},"The syllabus focuses on severity models, frequency models, aggregate models, coverage modifications, and risk measures such as Value-at-Risk and Tail-Value-at-Risk.",{"name":119,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":120},"How are students expected to construct and select parametric models?",{"text":121,"@type":113},"Students estimate parameters using Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Bayesian Estimation, quantify estimator variance and confidence intervals, use the delta method for variance estimation, and perform model selection with hypothesis tests and score-based approaches.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":83,"og:type":124,"og:title":65,"og:site_name":95,"og:description":67},"article",{"robots":126,"canonical":83},"index,follow",{"doc_id":128,"site_id":62},399193,1790578715,{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":131},{"doc_id":128,"user_id":132,"nickname":92,"user_avatar":133,"doc_module":4,"category_id":19,"category_name":20,"doc_title":65,"doc_description":67,"doc_content":134,"file_id":135,"file_url":136,"file_type":137,"file_size":138,"view_count":52,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":8,"is_downloadable":8,"audit_status":8,"page_count":34,"language":139,"language_code":63,"site_id":62,"html_lang":63,"table_of_contents":140,"faqs":141,"seo_title":142,"seo_description":67,"update_tm":143,"read_time":144,"preview_page_count":4},687207022233,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_155a257f0dc6eb9ab79c44ca47cae57d","University of Texas, Austin Course Syllabus Department of Mathematics  \nM339J (53400): Probability Models with Actuarial Applications  \nSpring 2019  \nI . Course Title: M 339J Probability Models with Actuarial Applications (Unique 53400)  \nII . Location, Days, and Time: CPE 2.220 MWF 1 : 00 pm-1 : 50 pm  \nIII . Faculty: Alisa Havens Walch, MA, FCAS  \nAssistant Professor of Instruction  \nAssistant Director of Actuarial Studies  \nCAS Exams: 1-9, C1, C2, COP, VE, VF, VS Office: RLM 13.148  \nOffice Hours: MWF 10:30am – 11: 15am and MW 3:45 pm-4:30pm  \nAdditional hours available by appointment, if you cannot make the scheduled office hours. Appointments may be held in Canvas conferences.  \nNote: Students are expected to bring their class notes and textbook with them to office hours. (I may not help you if you don’t have your notes with you.)  \nE-mail: [ahavens@math.utexas.edu](ahavens@math.utexas.edu) (best way to communicate)  \nNote: Include course \\# (M339J) in the subject line.  \nTelephone: (512) 232-6189 – UT (voice mail not set up)  \nIV . Prerequisites: M 362K (Probability) with a grade of‘C- ’ or better, and at least one of M 358K (Applied Statistics) or M 378K (Mathematical Statistics) with a grade of‘C- ’ or better.  \nV . Description of the Course: Introductory actuarial models for property and casualty insurance. With M 349P (Actuarial Statistical Estimates), this course covers the syllabus for the professional actuarial exam on model construction-SOA Exam STAM (no CAS equivalent) .  \nIn addition, this course carries the Quantitative Reasoning Flag. Quantitative Reasoning courses are designed to equip you with skills that are necessary for understanding the types of quantitative arguments you will regularly encounter in your adult and professional life. You should therefore expect a substantial portion of your grade to come from your use of quantitative skills to analyze real-world problems.  \nVI . Course Objectives: An intro. to modeling and important actuarial methods useful in modeling. A thorough knowledge of calculus, probability, and mathematical statistics is assumed. Students will be introduced to a variety of frequency, severity, and aggregate models that are useful for short-term actuarial applications. Students will learn how to analyze data in a business context, determine a suitable model including parameter values, provide measures of confidence, and estimate losses using credibility procedures . Students will be introduced to a variety of tools to calibrate and evaluate models.  \nVII . Learning Outcomes: After taking both M 339J and M 349P, students will be expected to perform the tasks listed below:  \nA . Severity Models  \n1. Calculate moments, percentiles, and generating functions.  \n2. Describe how changes in parameters affect the distribution.  \n3. Recognize classes of distributions, including extreme value distributions, and their relationships.  \n4. Create new distributions by multiplication by a constant, raising to a power, exponentiation, and mixing.  \n5. Identify the applications to which each distribution may apply and explain why.  \n6. Apply the distribution to an application, given the parameters.  \n7. Compare two distributions based on various characteristics of their tails, including moments, ratios of moments, limiting tail behavior, hazard rate function, and mean excess function.  \nB . Frequency Models  \nFor the Poisson, mixed Poisson, binomial, negative binomial, geometric distributions, and mixtures thereof:  \n1. Calculate moments and generating functions.  \n2. Describe how changes in parameters affect the distribution.  \n3. Recognize classes of distributions and their relationships.  \n4. Identify the applications to which each distribution may apply and explain why.  \n4. Apply the distribution to an application, given the parameters.  \n5. Derive and perform calculations with the zero-truncated and zero-modified versions of these distributions .  \nC . Aggregate Models  \n1. Define collective","cbCais96w1qZRCNP","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCais96w1qZRCNP","pdf",269670,"English","# Course Title\n# Location, Days, and Time\n# Faculty and Office Hours\n# Prerequisites\n# Course Description\n# Course Objectives\n# Learning Outcomes","[{\"question\":\"What course prerequisites are required for M 339J?\",\"answer\":\"Students need M 362K (Probability) with a grade of C- or better, plus at least one of M 358K (Applied Statistics) or M 378K (Mathematical Statistics) with a grade of C- or better.\"},{\"question\":\"What major topics are included in the learning outcomes for M 339J?\",\"answer\":\"The syllabus focuses on severity models, frequency models, aggregate models, coverage modifications, and risk measures such as Value-at-Risk and Tail-Value-at-Risk.\"},{\"question\":\"How are students expected to construct and select parametric models?\",\"answer\":\"Students estimate parameters using Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Bayesian Estimation, quantify estimator variance and confidence intervals, use the delta method for variance estimation, and perform model selection with hypothesis tests and score-based approaches.\"}]","M 339J Probability Models with Actuarial Applications - Spring 2019 | PDF",1790494399,18]