[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-108728-en":3,"doc-seo-108728-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":93},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},108728,1374391975076,"Riley","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/14000253ca4ec9f6853?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1783305029341752051",8,"Research & Report","Looking Beyond Aggregate Poverty & Vulnerability Rates in Indonesia - Aligning Social Protection with Sources of Vulnerability to Poverty","Policy note on Indonesia’s poverty assessment focusing on vulnerability to poverty rather than only aggregate poverty rates. It explains how natural disaster and climate risks, agriculture-dependent livelihoods, and persistent dynamics near the poverty line expose households to recurring spells of low consumption. Vulnerability affects productivity and long-run escape prospects through human capital underinvestment and risk-averse coping. The note documents declining vulnerability from 44% (2011) to 22% (2019), while progress varies sharply across rural and urban island regions.","L C OTY Pub lic isclosure Au horizeIND NE S A P OVERT d SS ESS E Tu lic Disc losure Authorized Pub lic Disclosure Authorized Pub lic Disclosure AuthorizedPAGE 1  \n| A background policy note for the 2022 Indonesia Poverty Assessment1 | Looking Beyond\u003Cbr>Aggregate Poverty & Vulnerability Rates in Indonesia:\u003Cbr>\u003Cbr>• Aligning social protection with sources of vulnerability to poverty\u003Cbr> |\n| --- | --- |\n| By Rabia Ali\u003Cbr>& Imam Setiawan |  |\n| 01.2022\u003Cbr> |  |\n\n1 Based on Ali, R. & I. Setiawan (2021) .“Looking Beyond Aggregate Poverty & Vulnerability Rates: Aligning social protection with sources of vulnerability to poverty across Indonesia’s island-regions”. World Bank Indonesia, mimeo.  \nPOLICY NOTE  \nINDONESIA POVERTY ASSESSMENT  \nPAGE  \n2  \nPOL ICY NOTE INDONESIA POVERTY ASSESS ME NT PAGE 3  \n22%  \nShare of Indonesians vulnerable to poverty in 2019  \n2 Indonesia’s high exposure to natural disaster and climate risks due to its location on the ring of fire (earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, landslides) and its high reliance on agriculture-based livelihoods (variation in precipitation) heightens the risk of falling into poverty for those exposed to these shocks.  \n3 Indeed, vulnerability to poverty and ’churning’ around the poverty line has remained a defining feature of the country’s poverty dynamics over the decades. In 1998, while only 22 percent of the population was poor, 45 percent were still vulnerable to poverty (Chaudhuri et al, 2002). Over 38 percent of poor households in 2004 were not poor in 2003 (World Bank, 2006). Analysis of data up to 2014 shows that among Indonesians who were in the aspiring middle-class in 2000, downward movements to poverty and vulnerability were almost as likely (24 percent) as upward movements to join the middle class (26 percent) (World Bank, 2019) .  \n4 See for example Alderman et al (2006), Gruber & Robilliard (2007), Rosenzweig & Binswanger (1993), and Klasen & Waibel (2014) .  \n5 Elbers et al. (2007)  \n6 Specifically, 44 and 22 percent of the population in 2011 and 2019 respectively had a 10 percent or higher chance of falling into poverty at some point between 2019 and 2020 (Ali & Setiawan, 2021) .  \nndonesia made impressive progress in reducing vulnerability to poverty in years leading up totheCOVID-19 pandemic. Indonesia's headcount poverty rate based on the national poverty line (PL) fell from 13.3 percent in 2010 to single digits for the first time in 2018 and reached a record-low of 9.2 percent in September 2019. Still, many Indonesians remained clustered just above the PL – in 2019, around one-in-five (59 million) had a per capita consumption expenditure above the PL but within 1.5 times the line – i.e., a consumption level barely distinguishable from that of the poor. These Indonesians may have been above the poverty line atthe time their consumption was measured but remained at risk of being unable to maintain an aggregate consumption level above the PL overtime, even in absence of shocks like the natural disasters and climate shocks that Indonesia experiences frequently.2,3 Such risk of falling into poverty matters as even short spells of lowered consumption can reduce productivity in the long run due to adverse impacts on human capital investmentsat the household level and/or reliance on adverse strategies of coping with income shocks e.g. sale of productive assets.4 Further, poor and near-poor households may anticipate shocks and as a result adopt conservative or risk-averse production and investment strategies that lead to low consumption.5 Thus, regardless of whether the adverse coping strategy is adopted ex-post or ex-ante, productivity is reduced in the long run, which in turn lowers chances of securely escaping poverty. The good news is that Indonesia did make significant progress in reducing vulnerability to poverty over the last decade, before the COVID-19 pandemic hit: The share of the population vulnerable declined from 44 percent in 2011 to 22 percent in 2","cbCaihWuPj02QtA1","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaihWuPj02QtA1","pdf",1276607,5,1,16,"English","en",105,"# Background and poverty vulnerability dynamics\n## Progress and near-poor clustering\n## Risks driving vulnerability and long-run effects\n# Regional patterns and typologies\n## Rural vs urban vulnerability in 2019\n## Four groups of island-regions by vulnerability decline","[{\"question\":\"What is the main focus of this policy note on poverty in Indonesia?\",\"answer\":\"The note focuses on vulnerability to poverty and how it drives poverty dynamics over time, alongside aggregate poverty rates.\"},{\"question\":\"Why does vulnerability to poverty matter for long-term outcomes?\",\"answer\":\"Short spells of reduced consumption can lower long-run productivity through weaker human capital investment and reliance on adverse coping strategies, including selling productive assets.\"},{\"question\":\"How did vulnerability to poverty change between 2011 and 2019, and what does it vary across?\",\"answer\":\"Vulnerability declined from 44% in 2011 to 22% in 2019, but the pace and levels varied widely across island regions, with rural and certain areas showing slower declines.\"}]","Looking Beyond Aggregate Poverty & Vulnerability Rates in Indonesia - Aligning Social Protection with Sources of Vulnerability to Poverty | PDF",1784473561,40,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":88,"head_meta":90,"extra_data":92,"updated_unix":29},"looking-beyond-aggregate-poverty-vulnerability-rates-in-indonesia-aligning-social-protection-with-sources-of-vulnerability-to-poverty","",{"@graph":37,"@context":87},[38,55,70],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,49,52],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":48},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":50,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":51},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":53,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":54},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/looking-beyond-aggregate-poverty-vulnerability-rates-in-indonesia-aligning-social-protection-with-sources-of-vulnerability-to-poverty/108728/",4,{"url":53,"name":13,"@type":56,"author":57,"headline":13,"publisher":59,"fileFormat":62,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":63,"datePublished":64,"encodingFormat":62,"isAccessibleForFree":65,"interactionStatistic":66},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":58},"Person",{"url":42,"name":60,"@type":61},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-29","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":67,"interactionType":68,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":69},"ViewAction",{"@type":71,"mainEntity":72},"FAQPage",[73,79,83],{"name":74,"@type":75,"acceptedAnswer":76},"What is the main focus of this policy note on poverty in Indonesia?","Question",{"text":77,"@type":78},"The note focuses on vulnerability to poverty and how it drives poverty dynamics over time, alongside aggregate poverty rates.","Answer",{"name":80,"@type":75,"acceptedAnswer":81},"Why does vulnerability to poverty matter for long-term outcomes?",{"text":82,"@type":78},"Short spells of reduced consumption can lower long-run productivity through weaker human capital investment and reliance on adverse coping strategies, including selling productive assets.",{"name":84,"@type":75,"acceptedAnswer":85},"How did vulnerability to poverty change between 2011 and 2019, and what does it vary across?",{"text":86,"@type":78},"Vulnerability declined from 44% in 2011 to 22% in 2019, but the pace and levels varied widely across island regions, with rural and certain areas showing slower declines.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":53,"og:type":89,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":60,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":91,"canonical":53},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":94},[95,99,103,107,111,116,120,123,128,131,135],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":96,"show_sort_weight":97,"slug":98},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":48,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":100,"show_sort_weight":101,"slug":102},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":54,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":104,"show_sort_weight":105,"slug":106},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":112,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":113,"show_sort_weight":114,"slug":115},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":117,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":118,"show_sort_weight":30,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare","healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":20,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]