[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-113405-en":3,"doc-seo-113405-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},113405,687197207057,"Sage","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_29158cc5080c5b710cf443261637dec0",8,"Research & Report","Lives and Livelihoods - Estimates of the Global Mortality and Poverty Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic","We evaluate the global welfare consequences of increases in mortality and poverty generated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Mortality impacts are measured as years of life lost (LY), while additional years spent in poverty (PY) are conservatively estimated using 2020 growth projections under two distributional scenarios. Using years of life as a welfare metric yields a unified trade-off between lives and livelihoods, enabling cross-country comparisons and scenario analysis across 150 countries.","Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized  \nAUTHOR ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT  \nFINAL PUBLICATION INFORMATION  \nLives and Livelihoods  \nEstimates of the Global Mortality and Poverty Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic  \nThe definitive version of the text was subsequently published in  \nWorld Development,(forthcoming 2021), 2021-09  \nPublished by Elsevier  \nTHE FINAL PUBLISHED VERSION OF THIS MANUSCRIPT IS AVAILABLE ON THE PUBLISHER’S PLATFORM  \nThis Author Accepted Manuscript is copyrighted by World Bank and published by Elsevier. It is posted here by agreement between them. Changes resulting from the publishing process—such as editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms—may not be reflected in this version of the text.  \nYou may download, copy, and distribute this Author Accepted Manuscript for noncommercial purposes. Your license is limited by the following restrictions:  \n(1) You may use this Author Accepted Manuscript for noncommercial purposes only under a CC BY-NC-ND  \n3.0 IGO license [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/igo](http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/igo).  \n(2) The integrity of the work and identification of the author, copyright owner, and publisher must be preserved in any copy.  \n(3) You must attribute this Author Accepted Manuscript in the following format: This is an Author Accepted  \nManuscript by Decerf, Benoit; Ferreira, Francisco H.G.; Mahler, Daniel G.; Sterck, Olivier Lives and Livelihoods © World Bank, published in the World Development(forthcoming 2021) 2021-09 CC BY-NCND 3.0 IGO [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/igo](http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/igo)  \n© 2021 World Bank  \nLives and livelihoods: Estimates of the global mortality and poverty e✛ects of the Covid-19  \npandemic.  \nJanuary 11, 2021  \nAbstract  \nWe evaluate the global welfare consequences of increases in mortality and poverty generated by the Covid-19 pandemic. Increases in mortality are measured in terms of the number of years of life lost (LY) to the pandemic. Additional years spent in poverty (PY) are conservatively estimated using growth estimates for 2020 and two di✛erent scenarios for its distributional characteristics. Using years of life asa welfare metric yields a single parameter that captures the underlying trade-o✛ between lives and livelihoods: how many PYs have the same welfare cost as one LY. Taking an agnostic view of this parameter, we compare estimates of LYs and PYs across countries for di✛erent scenarios. Three main ✜ndings arise. First, we estimate that, as of early June 2020, the pandemic (and the observed private and policy responses) had generated at least 68 million additional poverty years and 4.3 million years of life lost across 150 countries. The ratio of PYs to LYs is very large in most countries, suggesting that the poverty consequences of the crisis are of paramount importance. Second, this ratio declines systematically with GDP per capita: poverty accounts for a much greater share of the welfare costs in poorer countries. Finally, a comparison of these baseline results with mortality estimates in a counterfactual ✏herd immunity✑ scenario suggests that welfare losses would be greater in the latter in most countries.  \nJEL: D63, I15, I32, O15 .  \nKeywords: Covid, welfare, poverty, mortality  \nHighlights  \n❼ Years of life provide a theoretically-grounded and intuitive welfare metric for the evaluation of policies generating a ✏lives vs livelihoods✑ trade-o✛.  \n❼ As of early June 2020, the pandemic had generated 68 million additional poverty years and 4 .3 million years of life lost across 150 countries.  \n❼ The welfare costs of Covid-19 arising from increases in poverty, relative to mortality, are highest among poor countries and fall with GDP per capita.  \n❼ Counterfactual estimates suggest that a ✏no-intervention✑ scenario would have generated larger welfare costs for almost all countries.  \n1 Introd","cbCaibxr66SUq3JT","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaibxr66SUq3JT","pdf",993828,1,44,"English","en",105,"# Abstract\n## Highlights\n# Introduction","[{\"question\":\"How does the paper measure mortality-related welfare impacts of COVID-19?\",\"answer\":\"Mortality impacts are measured using years of life lost (LY) attributable to the pandemic.\"},{\"question\":\"How are additional poverty impacts estimated in the study?\",\"answer\":\"Additional years spent in poverty (PY) are conservatively estimated using growth estimates for 2020 under two different scenarios for distributional characteristics.\"},{\"question\":\"What are the paper’s main findings about poverty versus mortality across countries?\",\"answer\":\"The study finds very large PY-to-LY ratios in most countries, with poverty accounting for a larger share of welfare costs in poorer countries; it also reports that counterfactual no-intervention or herd-immunity-related scenarios can imply greater welfare losses in many countries.\"}]",1784504023,111,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"lives-and-livelihoods-estimates-of-the-global-mortality-and-poverty-effects-of-the-covid-19-pandemic","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/lives-and-livelihoods-estimates-of-the-global-mortality-and-poverty-effects-of-the-covid-19-pandemic/113405/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"How does the paper measure mortality-related welfare impacts of COVID-19?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"Mortality impacts are measured using years of life lost (LY) attributable to the pandemic.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"How are additional poverty impacts estimated in the study?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"Additional years spent in poverty (PY) are conservatively estimated using growth estimates for 2020 under two different scenarios for distributional characteristics.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"What are the paper’s main findings about poverty versus mortality across countries?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"The study finds very large PY-to-LY ratios in most countries, with poverty accounting for a larger share of welfare costs in poorer countries; 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