[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-108799-en":3,"doc-seo-108799-105":30,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":28,"read_time":29},108799,687197207057,"Sage","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_29158cc5080c5b710cf443261637dec0",8,"Research & Report","Libya Economic Monitor - Issue #1 - July 2020","Libya’s economy faces four overlapping shocks: intensifying conflict limiting economic activity, closure of major oil fields, declining global oil prices, and the COVID-19 pandemic. The 2019 Tripoli attack and the January 2020 blockade of oil ports and terminals triggered the most severe crisis since 2011, driving GDP growth to slow and recession risks to rise in 2020. Inflation eased in 2019 as exchange-rate premia fell, while public finances stayed under pressure due to rigid expenditures and a growing wage bill. External balances show surpluses, yet central bank foreign reserves declined as foreign direct investment fell and the dinar weakened in parallel markets, with significant downside risks ahead.","LIBYA ECONOMIC MONITOR  \nPub lic Disclosure Authorized Pub lic Disclosure Authorized Pub lic Disclosure Authorized Pub lic Disclosure Authorized  \nLibya Economic Monitor  \nIssue \\#1: July 2020  \nTABLE OF CONTENTS  \nExecutive Summary  ...................................................... v  \nI  . Recent Developments  .................................................. 1  \nII  . Current Situation  ..................................................... 9  \nAppendix – Selected Macroeconomic Indicators  .................................... 15  \nList of Figures  \nFigure 1 GDP Growth and Oil Production, Libya  ................................................... 2  \nFigure 2 Libya’s Inflation Has Been High and Driven by Macro Instability, 2016–20 .....................2  \nFigure 3 Libya’s Budget Remains under Stress Despite Foreign Exchange Windfall, 2012–19  ...........3  \nFigure 4 Substantial Fall of Inward and Outward Direct Investment, Libya, 2000–18  ....................4  \nFigure 5 Libya’s Trade Suffers from Lack of Diversification in Products and Partners  ...................5  \nFigure 6 The Libyan Dinar Recovered Partially after Easing Exchange Policy, 2014–20  .................6  \nList of Tables  \nTable 1 Libya’s Budget Execution, by Region (percent of GDP)  .....................................4  \nTable 2 Libya’s Adopted Budget 2020 and Its Execution over January–June, by Region  .............. 10  \nTable 3 Libya’s External Stance Remains under Stress, 2016–20  .................................. 11  \nTable B2  .1 Share of Respondents Who Face Deprivations, October 2019 (percent)  ..................... 12  \nList of Boxes  \nBox 1 Libya’s Financial Institutions  ............................................................ 6  \nBox 2 Social Indicators  ..................................................................... 12  \nEXECUTIVE SUMMARY  \nT he Libyan economy has recently been hit  \nby four overlapping shocks: an intensifying  \nconflict that suffocates economic activity, the closure of oil fields that puts the country’s major income-generating activity largely on hold, decreasing oil prices that reduce income from oil production in surviving fields, and the COVID-19 pandemic (with 3,438 confirmed cases and 73 deaths as of July 2020), which threatens to further suppress the economy  . This monitoring note, first in the biannual series, takes stock of recent economic trends emanating from these shocks  . The note aims to inform parties concerned with the well-being of Libyan citizens by providing a systematic overview of the conditions on the ground  .  \nThe attack on Tripoli in early 2019 and the blockade of the country’s major oil ports and terminals in January 2020 generated the most serious political, economic, and humanitarian crisis faced by Libya since 2011 . The economic impact was already felt in 2019 as real GDP growth slowed sharply to 2 .5 percent, down from what seemed a promising steady recovery during 2017–18, with a record growth performance of 20 .8 percent on average  . Worse yet, Libya is expected to suffer from a deep recession in 2020 . At the same time, after many years of high inflation, prices started to recede in 2019 because of falling parallel market exchange rate premia driven by concomitant actions by the government and the Central Bank of Libya (CBL), establishing a fee on  \nhard currency transactions (183 percent) while easing access to foreign exchange (forex)  .  \nDespite higher oil revenues and forex fees, public finances remained under stress in 2019, constrained by higher and rigid expenditures  . In particular, the wage bill continued to increase, reflecting a plethoric public sector and rising real salaries  . The financing gap in 2019 would have been very high without forex fees that generated a windfall to bridge the gap  . Consequently, the budget ran a small surplus after six years in a row of deficits  . Libya’s gross domestic debt declined slightly but remains high (144 percent of gro","cbCairrChgVDawwP","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCairrChgVDawwP","pdf",665977,4,1,26,"English","en",105,"# Executive Summary\n# Recent Developments\n## Conflict and oil production disruptions\n## GDP growth, inflation, and exchange-rate dynamics\n# Current Situation\n## Public finances and budget execution\n## Current account, foreign reserves, and investment\n## Exchange restrictions and currency performance\n# Appendix – Selected Macroeconomic Indicators","[{\"question\":\"What are the four main shocks affecting Libya’s economy in this issue?\",\"answer\":\"The report highlights intensifying conflict, closure of oil fields, falling oil prices, and the COVID-19 pandemic as the four overlapping shocks suppressing economic activity.\"},{\"question\":\"Why did inflation begin to recede in 2019?\",\"answer\":\"Prices started to recede in 2019 as parallel market exchange-rate premia fell, supported by government and Central Bank actions affecting fees and access to foreign exchange.\"},{\"question\":\"How did public finances and the budget perform in 2019 despite ongoing stress?\",\"answer\":\"Public finances remained under stress due to higher and rigid expenditures, especially the wage bill. Still, forex fees generated resources that helped the budget record a small surplus after years of deficits.\"}]",1784473996,66,{"code":4,"msg":31,"data":32},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":33,"title":13,"keywords":34,"description":14,"schema_data":35,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":28},"libya-economic-monitor-issue-1-july-2020","",{"@graph":36,"@context":85},[37,53,68],{"@type":38,"itemListElement":39},"BreadcrumbList",[40,44,48,51],{"item":41,"name":42,"@type":43,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":45,"name":46,"@type":43,"position":47},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":49,"name":12,"@type":43,"position":50},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":52,"name":13,"@type":43,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/libya-economic-monitor-issue-1-july-2020/108799/",{"url":52,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":41,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-30","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What are the four main shocks affecting Libya’s economy in this issue?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"The report highlights intensifying conflict, closure of oil fields, falling oil prices, and the COVID-19 pandemic as the four overlapping shocks suppressing economic activity.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Why did inflation begin to recede in 2019?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"Prices started to recede in 2019 as parallel market exchange-rate premia fell, supported by government and Central Bank actions affecting fees and access to foreign exchange.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"How did public finances and the budget perform in 2019 despite ongoing stress?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"Public finances remained under stress due to higher and rigid expenditures, especially the wage bill. 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