[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-109709-en":3,"doc-seo-109709-105":30,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":92},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":27,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":28,"read_time":29},109709,1099514067415,"Rowan","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/100002539d78ffe74a7?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1779092875211072502",8,"Research & Report","LIBERIA - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - June 2020","Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis for Liberia assesses moderate risk of external debt distress and high risk of overall public debt distress, emphasizing very limited space to absorb shocks and an extended breach of the PV of public debt-to-GDP ratio. The report attributes weaker macroeconomic performance to COVID-19, including a growth decline, higher fiscal deficits, and a larger balance of payments financing need. It evaluates financing from RCF, multilateral institutions, and donor grants, and discusses realism tools and judgment. It notes debt sustainability due to downward PV debt ratios and forecasts Liberia can meet obligations, while highlighting the role of DSSI and possible CCRT relief.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION  \nINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nLIBERIA  \nJoint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis  \nJune 2020  \nPrepared jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA)  \nand the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Approved by Marcello Estevão (IDA) and Dominique Desruelle (IMF)  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \n\n| Liberia: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis 1 |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate 2 |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Limited space to accommodate shocks |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n| Macroeconomic projections | With the impact of COVID-19, growth for 2020 is now projected at- 2.5 percent for 2020, 3 percentage points below the pre-COVID baseline, largely due to lockdowns at home and abroad. In 2020, an emerging BOP need is projected at 5.3 percent of GDP, partly due to a sharp decline in service sector exports and remittances and delays in capital inflows. The terms-of-trade shock is positive since fuel import prices declined more than the prices of key exports (iron ore, rubber, and gold). The BOP need also stems from a sharp decline in revenue and an increase in COVID-19 response spending on health and social programs. The fiscal deficit is projected to increase to 5.1 percent of GDP in 2020. |\n| Financing strategy | Additional financing needs are filled by the RCF, other multilateral institutions (i.e., World Bank and African Development Bank), and donor grants in FY2020 and FY2021. 3 |\n| Realism tools flagged | Large unexpected change in public debt in the last 5 years. 3-year primary balance adjustment greater than 2.5 percentage points of GDP. |\n| Mechanical risk rating under the external DSA | Moderate |\n| Mechanical risk rating under the public DSA | High |\n\n1Debt coverage has remained the same as in the previous DSA.  \n2Liberia’s debt-carrying capacity based on the Composite Indicator (CI), which is based on the October 2019 WEO and the 2018 CPIA, is assessed as weak. The CI score is 2.41.  \n3See Table 2 of the main text for the COVID-19 response spending and sources of funding so far. The World Bank additional financing includes US$25 million of budget support and US$30 million of off-budget financing (primarily health and social protection programs) .  \nThe Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) continues to assess Liberia at moderate risk of external debt distress and high risk of overall public debt distress, with very limited space to accommodate shocks and an extended breach of the PV of public debt-to-GDP ratio . However, public debt is assessed to be sustainable as (i) both the PV of public debt-to-GDP and PV of debt-to-revenue ratios are projected to be on a downward trend and (ii) the high PV of public debt ratios largely reflect debt to the central bank, for which the interest rate is relatively low but is not discounted in the PV calculations. Moreover, staff projects that there is a high likelihood that Liberia will be able to meet all of its current and future financial obligations.  \nThe macroeconomic outlook is less favorable compared to the previous Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) in December 2019 due to the external shock caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis indicates that the impact of the COVID-19 shock, especially on the growth outlook, further reduces Liberia’s space to absorb shocks relative to the previous DSA. However, Liberia remains at moderate risk of external debt distress. This DSA also points to the tension between the near-term borrowing need to minimize the COVID-19 impact and the need for medium-term borrowing space to support post-COVID-19 recovery, and in turn highlights the potential benefit of debt relief from the Catastrophe Containment Relief Trust (CCRT) . 4 In addition, the authorities will request the debt service suspension from official bilateral creditors as envisaged under the Debt","cbCaijxvFXh58a3d","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaijxvFXh58a3d","pdf",505573,1,12,"English","en",105,"# Risk ratings and debt distress assessment\n## External debt distress risk\n## Overall public debt distress risk\n## Granularity and judgment\n# Macroeconomic projections and shocks\n## COVID-19 impact on growth and fiscal balance\n## Balance of payments financing needs\n## Terms-of-trade and revenue effects\n# Financing strategy and realism tools\n## Additional financing sources (RCF, multilateral, donors)\n## Realism tools flagged\n# Debt sustainability rationale and policy implications\n## Downward PV trends and sustainability conditions\n## Ability to meet obligations\n## Risks and recommended borrowing approach\n# Relief initiatives and scenario analysis\n## DSSI suspension of debt service\n## CCRT relief assumptions","[{\"question\":\"What are the overall and external debt distress risk ratings for Liberia?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis rates external debt distress as Moderate, while the overall risk of debt distress is High.\"},{\"question\":\"How has COVID-19 affected Liberia’s macroeconomic projections in the report?\",\"answer\":\"The report projects 2020 growth at -2.5 percent, with a higher balance of payments financing need and an increase in the fiscal deficit to 5.1 percent of GDP, driven by lockdown effects and reduced revenue alongside COVID-related spending.\"},{\"question\":\"Why does the report judge public debt as sustainable despite high risk?\",\"answer\":\"Public debt is considered sustainable because the PV of public debt-to-GDP and PV of debt-to-revenue ratios are projected to decline, and the high PV ratios largely reflect debt to the central bank with a relatively low interest rate that is not discounted in PV calculations.\"}]","LIBERIA - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - June 2020 | PDF",1784482010,30,{"code":4,"msg":31,"data":32},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":33,"title":13,"keywords":34,"description":14,"schema_data":35,"social_meta":87,"head_meta":89,"extra_data":91,"updated_unix":28},"liberia-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-june-2020","",{"@graph":36,"@context":86},[37,54,69],{"@type":38,"itemListElement":39},"BreadcrumbList",[40,44,48,51],{"item":41,"name":42,"@type":43,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":45,"name":46,"@type":43,"position":47},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":49,"name":12,"@type":43,"position":50},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":52,"name":13,"@type":43,"position":53},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/liberia-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-june-2020/109709/",4,{"url":52,"name":13,"@type":55,"author":56,"headline":13,"publisher":58,"fileFormat":61,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":62,"datePublished":63,"encodingFormat":61,"isAccessibleForFree":64,"interactionStatistic":65},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":57},"Person",{"url":41,"name":59,"@type":60},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-29","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":66,"interactionType":67,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":68},"ViewAction",{"@type":70,"mainEntity":71},"FAQPage",[72,78,82],{"name":73,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":75},"What are the overall and external debt distress risk ratings for Liberia?","Question",{"text":76,"@type":77},"The analysis rates external debt distress as Moderate, while the overall risk of debt distress is High.","Answer",{"name":79,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":80},"How has COVID-19 affected Liberia’s macroeconomic projections in the report?",{"text":81,"@type":77},"The report projects 2020 growth at -2.5 percent, with a higher balance of payments financing need and an increase in the fiscal deficit to 5.1 percent of GDP, driven by lockdown effects and reduced revenue alongside COVID-related spending.",{"name":83,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":84},"Why does the report judge public debt as sustainable despite high risk?",{"text":85,"@type":77},"Public debt is considered sustainable because the PV of public debt-to-GDP and PV of debt-to-revenue ratios are projected to decline, and the high PV ratios largely reflect debt to the central bank with a relatively low interest rate that is not discounted in PV calculations.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":52,"og:type":88,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":59,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":90,"canonical":52},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":93},[94,98,102,106,111,116,121,123,128,131,135],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":95,"show_sort_weight":96,"slug":97},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":47,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":99,"show_sort_weight":100,"slug":101},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":53,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":103,"show_sort_weight":104,"slug":105},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":107,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":112,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":113,"show_sort_weight":114,"slug":115},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":117,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":118,"show_sort_weight":119,"slug":120},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":29,"slug":122},"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]