[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110553-en":3,"doc-seo-110553-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":92},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},110553,1099514068035,"Ezra","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_276721f389ce27ea32af1340a28f341c",8,"Research & Report","LIBERIA - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - Debt Distress Risk Assessment","Joint World Bank–IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis evaluates Liberia’s external debt and overall public debt distress risks. External distress risk is assessed as moderate, while overall risk of debt distress is high, driven by limited capacity to absorb shocks. Staff judges public debt sustainable, supported by predominantly highly concessional external borrowing and favorable domestic debt terms largely owed to the Central Bank of Liberia. The analysis notes a small temporary breach related to the PV of public debt versus GDP ending in 2026 and highlights growth, export, and parameter shocks as key downside risks.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nAbebe Adugna and Marcello Estevão (IDA), Montfort Mlachila and Gavin Gray (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association 1 (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \n\n| LIBERIA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS2 |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Limited space to absorb shocks |\n| Application of judgement | No |\n\nThe Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) assesses Liberia at moderate risk of external debt and high risk of overall public debt distress with limited space to accommodate shocks. Staff judges public debt to be sustainable. More than 90 percent of external debt is on highly concessional terms and held by multilateral lenders. The bulk of domestic debt is owed to the Central Bank of Liberia (CBL) at favorable terms (interest rate of 4 percent with principal repayments starting in 2029) . The breach of the threshold for the present value (PV) of public debt relative to GDP is small and projected to end in 2026. Total debt distress risk would then become moderate. To keep debt distress vulnerabilities contained, it will be important that the authorities maintain prudent fiscal policy that keeps the deficit at 3-4 percent of GDP and prioritize concessional financing. Shocks to the real economic growth rate, exports, or several parameters at once are the main downside risks to debt sustainability.  \n1. The DSA includes central government debt, central government guaranteed debt, and central bank debt contracted on behalf of the government (Text Table 1) .3  \n1Debt coverage has remained the same as in the previous DSA.  \n2Liberia’s debt-carrying capacity based on the Composite Indicator (CI), which is based on the October 2021 WEO data and the 2020 Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA), is assessed as weak. The CI score is 2.72 which points to medium CI ranking. However , to change the debt carrying capacity to medium two consecutive signals are needed.  \n3The definition of external and domestic debt uses a residency criterion.  \n|  |  Subsectors of the public sector Check box \u003Cbr>Central government\u003Cbr>State and local government\u003Cbr>Other elements in the general government\u003Cbr>o/w: Social security fund\u003Cbr>o/w: Extra budgetary funds (EBFs)\u003Cbr>Guarantees (to other entities in the public and private sector, including to SOEs) Central bank (borrowed on behalf of the government)\u003Cbr>Non-guaranteed SOE debt\u003Cbr>X\u003Cbr>XX |\n| --- | --- |\n| 1\u003Cbr>2\u003Cbr>3\u003Cbr>4\u003Cbr>5\u003Cbr>6\u003Cbr>7\u003Cbr>8 |  |\n\nPublic debt coverage and the magnitude of the contingent liability tailored stress test  \n\n| 1 | The country's coverage of public debt  The central government, central bank, government-guaranteed debt  |  |  |  |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n|  |  | Default | Used for the analysis | Reasons for deviations from the default settings |\n| 2 | Other elements of the general government not captured in 1. | 0.5 percent of GDP | 0.5 |  |\n| 3 | SoE's debt (guaranteed and not guaranteed by the government) 1/ | 2 percent of GDP | 2 |  |\n| 4 | PPP | 35 percent of PPP stock | 12.70 |  |\n| 5 | Financial market (the default value of 5 percent of GDP is the minimum value) | 5 percent of GDP | 5 |  |\n|  | Total (2+3+4+5) (in percent of GDP) 20.2 |  |  |  |\n\n1/ The default shock of 2% of GDP will be triggered for countries whose government-guaranteed debt is not fully captured under the country's public debt definition (1.). If it is already included in the government debt (1.) and risks associated with SoE's debt not guaranteed by the government is assessed to be negligible, a country team may reduce this to 0% .  \n• The external and the domestic debt of the central government is fully covered in the DSA. The external debt includes US$1,191 million debt to multilateral lenders, US$62 million debt to bilateral lenders, and US$51 milli","cbCaihwLkyIcGzDK","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaihwLkyIcGzDK","pdf",835129,4,1,22,"English","en",105,"# Debt distress risk assessment\n## Baseline risk ratings and judgement\n## Debt composition and coverage scope\n## Debt carrying capacity assessment\n## Public debt coverage and contingent liability stress tests","[{\"question\":\"What are the assessed debt distress risks for Liberia?\",\"answer\":\"External debt distress risk is assessed as moderate, while overall risk of debt distress is high.\"},{\"question\":\"Why is public debt judged as sustainable despite high overall risk?\",\"answer\":\"More than 90% of external debt is highly concessional and held by multilateral lenders, and most domestic debt is owed to the Central Bank of Liberia on favorable terms.\"},{\"question\":\"What are the main downside risks to debt sustainability?\",\"answer\":\"Shocks to real economic growth, exports, or multiple parameters at once are identified as the key downside risks.\"}]","LIBERIA - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - Debt Distress Risk Assessment | PDF",1784485969,55,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":87,"head_meta":89,"extra_data":91,"updated_unix":29},"liberia-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":37,"@context":86},[38,54,69],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,49,52],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":48},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":50,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":51},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":53,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/liberia-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment/110553/",{"url":53,"name":13,"@type":55,"author":56,"headline":13,"publisher":58,"fileFormat":61,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":62,"datePublished":63,"encodingFormat":61,"isAccessibleForFree":64,"interactionStatistic":65},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":57},"Person",{"url":42,"name":59,"@type":60},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-30","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":66,"interactionType":67,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":68},"ViewAction",{"@type":70,"mainEntity":71},"FAQPage",[72,78,82],{"name":73,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":75},"What are the assessed debt distress risks for Liberia?","Question",{"text":76,"@type":77},"External debt distress risk is assessed as moderate, while overall risk of debt distress is high.","Answer",{"name":79,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":80},"Why is public debt judged as sustainable despite high overall risk?",{"text":81,"@type":77},"More than 90% of external debt is highly concessional and held by multilateral lenders, and most domestic debt is owed to the Central Bank of Liberia on favorable terms.",{"name":83,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":84},"What are the main downside risks to debt sustainability?",{"text":85,"@type":77},"Shocks to real economic growth, exports, or multiple parameters at once are identified as the key downside risks.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":53,"og:type":88,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":59,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":90,"canonical":53},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":93},[94,98,102,106,111,116,121,124,129,132,136],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":95,"show_sort_weight":96,"slug":97},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":48,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":99,"show_sort_weight":100,"slug":101},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":103,"show_sort_weight":104,"slug":105},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":107,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":112,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":113,"show_sort_weight":114,"slug":115},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":117,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":118,"show_sort_weight":119,"slug":120},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":122,"slug":123},30,"research-report",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":126,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":128},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":127,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":130,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":131},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":133,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":134,"show_sort_weight":133,"slug":135},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":137,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":138,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":139},19,"General","general"]