[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111798-en":3,"doc-seo-111798-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111798,1374391974468,"Eden","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_29158cc5080c5b710cf443261637dec0",8,"Research & Report","LIBERIA: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - External Debt Distress Risk Moderate, Total Debt Distress Risk High","The analysis assesses Liberia’s debt sustainability using a joint IMF-World Bank Debt Sustainability Analysis framework. It finds moderate risk of external debt distress and high risk of overall public debt distress, with limited fiscal space to absorb shocks. Despite the risk profile, staff judge public debt to be sustainable, supported by largely concessional external financing and mostly favorable domestic debt terms, though domestic liabilities are mainly U.S. dollar-denominated and increase vulnerability. Projections rely on continued prudent fiscal policy, including avoiding non-concessional borrowing and maintaining fiscal consolidation.","Public Disc losure Authorized  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Abebe Adugna (IDA) , and Montfort Mlachila and Jarkko Turunen (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)1  \n\n| LIBERIA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS2 |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Limited space to absorb shocks |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nThe Debt Sustainability Analysis assesses Liberia at moderate risk of external debt distress and at high risk of total public debt distress, with limited space to absorb shocks. Despite these risks, staff consider public debt to be sustainable. Around 90 percent of Liberia’s external debt is on highly concessional terms and held by multilateral lenders. Most domestic debt is owed to the Central Bank of Liberia (CBL) under favorable terms. Still, domestic debt is mostly denominated in U.S. dollars posing further vulnerabilities. Debt projections are predicated on continued prudent fiscal policy, including avoidance of non-concessional external borrowing in the nearer term and continued fiscal consolidation. The primary fiscal deficit declined from 6.1 percent of GDP in 2023 to 1 percent of GDP in 2024, where it will broadly remain throughout the projection period. Such fiscal path plays a vital role in stabilizing the PV of total public debt considering the gradual projected increase in non-concessional borrowing to partly compensate for the sharp decline in donor support over the medium-and long-term. Key downside risks include negative shocks to growth, terms of trade, foreign direct investment, and a potential reversal of fiscal discipline. This DSA is being conducted in the context of the Article IV consultation for 2025 and the second review under the ECF-supported program approved in September 2024.  \n1Debt coverage has remained the same as in the previous DSA.  \n2Liberia’s debt-carrying capacity as determined by the Composite Indicator (CI) is assessed as weak. At 2.62 the CI score based on the April 2025 WEO data and the 2023 Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) points to weak ranking. To change the debt carrying capacity to medium two consecutive signals are needed.  \n1. The DSA includes central government debt, central government guaranteed debt, and central bank debt contracted on behalf of the government (Text Table 1) .3  \n• The external and the domestic debt of the central government is fully covered in the DSA. The external debt in 2024 includes US$1,559 million debt to multilateral lenders, US$112.7 million debt to official bilateral lenders, and US$84.2 million debt to commercial lenders. The domestic debt consists mostly of US$641 .6 million in government borrowing from the CBL and US$203 .5 million in sovereign bonds held by commercial banks as of end-2024 . The US$641.6 million debt from the CBL largely reflects legacy debt that was restructured, securitized, and fully recognized in 2019.4 Of the US$203 .5 million debt with banks, local currency debt accounts for about one-fifth.  \n• The State-Owned Enterprise (SOE) debt is generally guaranteed by the government or reflects funds borrowed externally by the government and on-lent to SOEs and as such is captured by the DSA. Liberian SOEs are unable to secure external funding without government guarantees given the lack of market access. However, there could be SOE debt owed to domestic banks that escape the DSA. The government is making some efforts to improve SOE debt transparency. While data reliability remains a serious concern, the MFDP in its publication of annual and quarterly Debt Management Reports included some information on SOE debt, covering guaranteed and non-guaranteed, as well as direct and on-lent liabilities.5 The President is also initiating reforms of the Bureau of State Enterprises","cbCaijG31RzirBp6","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaijG31RzirBp6","pdf",981993,1,27,"English","en",105,"# Overview\n## Debt distress risk ratings\n## Assumptions and fiscal projections\n# Debt coverage and composition\n## Central government external and domestic debt\n## State-Owned Enterprise (SOE) and central bank debt\n## Data issues and contingent liabilities","[{\"question\":\"What does the Debt Sustainability Analysis conclude about Liberia’s debt distress risks?\",\"answer\":\"It concludes moderate risk of external debt distress and high risk of overall public debt distress, noting limited space to absorb shocks. Staff still consider public debt sustainable.\"},{\"question\":\"What main fiscal assumptions underpin the projections?\",\"answer\":\"Projections are based on continued prudent fiscal policy, including avoiding non-concessional external borrowing in the near term and sustaining fiscal consolidation. The fiscal deficit is projected to improve sharply and remain low through the projection period.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the analysis describe the composition of Liberia’s debt included in the assessment?\",\"answer\":\"The DSA includes central government debt, central government guaranteed debt, and central bank debt contracted on behalf of the government. It covers external and domestic central government debt fully, while SOE and contingent elements are incorporated based on guarantees and debt channels.\"}]",1784491766,68,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"liberia-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-external-debt-distress-risk-moderate-total-debt-distress-risk-high","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/liberia-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-external-debt-distress-risk-moderate-total-debt-distress-risk-high/111798/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What does the Debt Sustainability Analysis conclude about Liberia’s debt distress risks?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"It concludes moderate risk of external debt distress and high risk of overall public debt distress, noting limited space to absorb shocks. Staff still consider public debt sustainable.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"What main fiscal assumptions underpin the projections?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"Projections are based on continued prudent fiscal policy, including avoiding non-concessional external borrowing in the near term and sustaining fiscal consolidation. The fiscal deficit is projected to improve sharply and remain low through the projection period.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"How does the analysis describe the composition of Liberia’s debt included in the assessment?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"The DSA includes central government debt, central government guaranteed debt, and central bank debt contracted on behalf of the government. It covers external and domestic central government debt fully, while SOE and contingent elements are incorporated based on guarantees and debt channels.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,110,115,120,123,128,131,135],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]