[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-112204-en":3,"doc-seo-112204-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},112204,8796095360427,"Lucas Martin","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_994ba38a5ba835b3df7d355c54d3ed8d",8,"Research & Report","LIBERIA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS - Debt distress risk assessment","The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) for Liberia evaluates the country’s risk of external debt distress as moderate and the overall risk of debt distress as high, with limited fiscal space to absorb shocks. The present value of external debt stays below the threshold throughout the projection period, supported by highly concessional external financing and multilateral holdings. Domestic obligations are largely dollar-denominated and owed mainly to the Central Bank of Liberia on favorable terms, while downside risks include weaker growth, adverse terms of trade, declining aid and FDI, and possible reversals in fiscal policy.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Abebe Adugna (IDA), and Papa N’Diaye and Pritha Mitra (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) 1  \n\n| LIBERIA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS2 |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Limited space to absorb shocks |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nThe Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) assesses Liberia at moderate risk of external debt distress and at high risk of total public debt distress, with limited space to absorb shocks. Staff consider public debt to be sustainable. The PV of external debt remains below the threshold over the entire projection period. More than 90 percent of Liberia’s external debt is on highly concessional terms and held by multilateral lenders. Domestic debt is mostly denominated in U.S. dollars but most of it is owed to the Central Bank of Liberia (CBL) at favorable terms. Debt projections are predicated on continued prudent fiscal policy that maintains the primary fiscal deficit below 1 percent of GDP over the projection horizon while avoiding nonconcessional external borrowing in the nearer term. Key downside risks include negative shocks to growth and terms of trade, declining international aid and foreign direct investment, and a potential reversal of prudent fiscal policy. Liberia is highly vulnerable to climate and epidemic shocks, which could increase import needs, reduce export capacity, and worsen economic resilience and social stability. The RSF financing improves the balance of risks by helping Liberia address climate-related and pandemic vulnerabilities and build resilience. This DSA is being conducted in the context of the third review under the ECF-supported program approved in September 2024 and the request for financial support under an RSF.  \n1 Debt coverage has remained the same as in the previous DSA.  \n2 Liberia’s debt-carrying capacity as determined by the Composite Indicator (CI) is assessed as weak. At 2.59 the CI score based on the October 2025 WEO data and the 2024 Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) points to weak ranking. To change the debt carrying capacity to medium, two consecutive signals are needed.  \n1. The DSA includes central government debt, central government guaranteed debt, and central bank debt contracted on behalf of the government (Text Table 1) .3  \n• The external and the domestic debt of the central government is fully covered in the DSA. The external debt reached US$1,868 million in 2025, of which US$1,691 million are due to multilateral lenders, US$104 .5 million to official bilateral lenders, and US$71.8 million to commercial lenders. The domestic debt reached US$995 .8 million in 2025, consisting mostly of US$633 million in government borrowing from the CBL and US$249 million in sovereign bonds held by commercial banks. The debt from the CBL largely reflects legacy debt that was restructured, securitized, and fully recognized in 2019. Of the debt owed to domestic banks, local currency debt accounts for about one-seventh.  \n• The State-Owned Enterprise (SOE) debt is generally guaranteed by the government or reflects funds borrowed externally by the government and on-lent to SOEs and as such is captured by the DSA. Liberian SOEs are unable to secure external funding without government guarantees given the lack of market access. However, there could be SOE debt owed to domestic banks that is not covered in the DSA. The government is making efforts to improve the transparency of SOE debt and the quality of government domestic debt and contingent liabilities data. These include the ongoing General Auditing Commission (GAC) audit of the government domestic debt and arrears, together with the financial audits of SOEs. Together, they constitute a criti","cbCainnzfWU6x9FC","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCainnzfWU6x9FC","pdf",1154529,1,31,"English","en",105,"# Key Risk Ratings\n## External debt distress risk (moderate)\n## Overall debt distress risk (high)\n# Debt Coverage and Financing Assumptions\n## External debt composition and terms\n## Domestic debt composition and Central Bank exposure\n## State-Owned Enterprise (SOE) debt and data efforts\n# Downside Risks and Resilience Measures\n## Macroeconomic and external shocks\n## Climate and epidemic vulnerability\n## RSF financing and program context","[{\"question\":\"What are Liberia’s main debt distress risk ratings in this DSA?\",\"answer\":\"External debt distress risk is assessed as moderate, while the overall risk of debt distress is assessed as high. The report highlights limited space to absorb shocks.\"},{\"question\":\"Does the DSA indicate Liberia’s external debt remains within risk thresholds?\",\"answer\":\"Yes. The present value of external debt remains below the relevant threshold over the entire projection period.\"},{\"question\":\"What financing conditions underpin the debt projections?\",\"answer\":\"Projections rely on continued prudent fiscal policy—keeping the primary fiscal deficit below 1 percent of GDP—and avoiding nonconcessional external borrowing in the near term.\"}]",1784493692,78,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"liberia-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/liberia-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment/112204/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What are Liberia’s main debt distress risk ratings in this DSA?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"External debt distress risk is assessed as moderate, while the overall risk of debt distress is assessed as high. The report highlights limited space to absorb shocks.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Does the DSA indicate Liberia’s external debt remains within risk thresholds?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"Yes. The present value of external debt remains below the relevant threshold over the entire projection period.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"What financing conditions underpin the debt projections?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"Projections rely on continued prudent fiscal policy—keeping the primary fiscal deficit below 1 percent of GDP—and avoiding nonconcessional external borrowing in the near term.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,110,115,120,123,128,131,135],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]