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This article extends prior research by showing that melt estimates vary with measurement choices and local context, including that estimates based on student-level National Student Clearinghouse data can overstate summer melt. 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[https://journals.sagepub.com/home/ero](https://journals.sagepub.com/home/ero)  \nLeaks in the College Access Pipeline: Examining Summer Melt in a Large Urban School District  \nCarrie E. Miller  \nMeredith Phillips  \nUniversity of California, Los Angeles  \nCaitlin E. Ahearn  \nStanford University  \nSome high school seniors who plan to attend college in the fall following graduation do not enroll. This phenomenon, known as summer melt, contributes to lower educational attainment, particularly among low-income students. We extend the literature on summer melt in two ways. First, we show that melt estimates can be sensitive to measurement decisions and local context, and in particular that estimates based on student-level National Student Clearinghouse data can overstate the extent of summer melt. Second, we show that aspects of students’ behavior and perceptions, such as their attendance rates, Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) completion, and confidence about their intended college, predict summer melt. These results suggest ways that school staff and summer melt interventions could potentially target additional support to college-intending students to facilitate their successful transition to college.  \nKeywords: summer melt, college access, college enrollment, urban schools, FAFSA  \nA college education is associated with a wide range of positive social and economic outcomes in adulthood (see e.g., Barrow & Malamud, 2015; Card, 2001; Hout, 2012) . Yet some high school seniors who plan to attend college in the fall after high school graduation do not enroll—a phenomenon known as summer melt. Research suggests that more than 1 in 10 students nationally experience summer melt (Castleman & Page, 2014a) and that melt is much more common among graduates from large, predominantly lowincome, urban school districts (e.g., Daugherty, 2012; Holzman & Hanson, 2020; Kirkman et al., 2022) . Although rates of summer melt undoubtedly vary across contexts, the way scholars define and operationalize melt also varies across studies, making it difficult to discern the extent to which rates of summer melt differ due to changes in context or measurement. We begin this article by investigating how measurement decisions affect melt estimates.  \nWe then explore which students are most likely to experience summer melt. Although researchers generally find that students from specific demographic groups—namely, lowincome, Black, and Latinx students (Castleman & Page, 2014a; Daugherty, 2012; Holzman & Hanson, 2020)—are most likely to melt, few studies provide information about  \nwhich student characteristics, beyond demographics, are strongly associated with summer melt. We examine the extent to which students’ school engagement, academic achievement, college eligibility, and commitment to attending college are associated with summer melt. Our analyses aim to provide information that high school staff could potentially use to deliver additional support to the students who are most likely to melt, and that summer programs could potentially use to better target melt interventions.  \nBackground  \nA college degree has become increasingly important for economic security and social well-being. College graduates are more likely to be financially secure as adults, satisfied with their careers, and healthier (Glenn & Weaver, 1982; Hout, 2012; Oreopoulos & Petronijevic, 2013) . Yet despite the considerable benefits of a college degree, large and persistent socioeconomic disparities in college enrollment remain (Bailey & Dynarski, 2011) . A substantial body of research has focused on identifying barriers to college attendance and interventions that may improve college access (for a review, see Page & Scott-Clayto","cbCaimPz4UKXhnUq","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaimPz4UKXhnUq","pdf",601052,"English","# Background\n## Defining Summer Melt","[{\"question\":\"What does “summer melt” mean in this article?\",\"answer\":\"Summer melt refers to high school seniors who intend to enroll in college after graduation but fail to do so in the fall.\"},{\"question\":\"How do measurement decisions affect estimates of summer melt?\",\"answer\":\"The article finds that melt estimates can be sensitive to how researchers define and measure the phenomenon, and that using student-level National Student Clearinghouse data may overstate the extent of summer melt.\"},{\"question\":\"Which student factors are associated with higher risk of summer melt?\",\"answer\":\"Higher summer melt is predicted by aspects of students’ behavior and perceptions, including lower attendance rates, lack of FAFSA completion, and lower confidence about their intended college.\"}]","Leaks in the College Access Pipeline: Examining Summer Melt in a Large Urban School District | PDF",1792069112,48]