[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-108812-en":3,"doc-seo-108812-105":30,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":92},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":28,"read_time":29},108812,2336464648746,"Skyler","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_276721f389ce27ea32af1340a28f341c",8,"Research & Report","Lake Chad Regional Economic Memorandum - Technical Paper 3 - Estimating the Spillover Economic Effects of Foreign Conflict: Evidence from Boko Haram","Violent conflicts in border regions can generate cross-border economic spillovers through reduced trade and other regional transmission channels, while identification is complicated by the bidirectional link between conflict and socioeconomic conditions. Using a difference-in-difference design around the unexpected rise of Boko Haram in Northeastern Nigeria in 2009, the study estimates effects on neighboring areas in Cameroon, Chad, and Niger not directly targeted. Results show strong negative cross-border impacts on economic activity, proxied by night lights, driven by trade declines rather than conflict diffusion, with local resilience shaped by trade diversification and securitization.","Pub lic Disclosure Authorized Pub lic Disclosure Authorized Pub lic Disclosure Authorized Pub lic Disclosure Authorized  \nLake Chad Regional Economic Memorandum | Development for Peace  \nTechnical Paper 3.  \nEstimating the Spillover Economic Effects of Foreign Conflict:  \nEvidence from Boko Haram  \nRemi Jedwab (George Washington University), Brian Blankespoor (World Bank),  \nTakaaki Masaki (World Bank), and Carlos Rodríguez-Castelán (World Bank)  \n150   \n4.1 Introduction  \nViolent conflicts present a formidable threat to regional economies. Throughout the world, border regions in many countries are possibly impacted by the cross-border economic effects of regional insurgencies in neighboring countries or national state failures, i.e.“bad neighbors”. This raises two questions. First, what is the magnitude of the spill-over economic effects of foreign conflict and what are the channels through which they operate? Second, what policies can governments adopt in the potentially exposed regions to mitigate such spill-over effects?276  \nIn this paper, we adopt a difference-in-difference (DiD) framework leveraging the unexpected rise of the Boko Haram insurgency in Northeastern Nigeria in 2009 to study its economic effects in neighboring areas in Cameroon, Chad and Niger that were not directly targeted by Boko Haram activities. We find strong cross-border economic effects that are likely driven by reduced trade activities, not the diffusion of conflict. Factors of local economic resilience to this foreign conflict shock then include trade diversification and political and economic securitization. More generally, conflicts, if they have regional economic effects, may necessitate regional responses.  \nThe causal identification of the effects of conflict, and by extension of the mitigation effects of various locational factors, is complicated by a complex endogenous relationship between conflict and socioeconomic conditions (Blattman and Miguel, 2010; Djankov and Reynal-Querol, 2010) . Conflicts impose large economic tolls (e.g., International Monetary Fund,  \n2019; Trebbi and Weese, 2019). But poor economies and economic shocks also offer fertile grounds for conflicts (e.g., Miguel et al., 2004; Bazzi and Blattman, 2014; Burke et al., 2015) .277  \nWhile poverty traps and conflict traps can reinforce each other locally, spatio-dynamic spillovers can also be present (Berman et al., 2017; König et al., 2017; Harari and Ferrara, 2018; Melnikov et al., 2020; Eberleet al., 2020) . Conflict in one location can beget conflict in other locations, either via a direct expansion in space of conflict factors (e.g., armies) or because conflict in one location increases poverty, and lowers the opportunity cost of conflict labor, in other locations. Due to spillovers that reinforce each other across locations, separately identifying local and non-local effects is difficult econometrically (Harari and Ferrara, 2018) .  \nStudies on the impact of policies on conflict then focus on conflict prevention, management, resolution and/ or reconciliation in the conflict countries themselves  \n(e.g., Nunn and Qian, 2014; König et al., 2017; Chiovelliet al., 2018; Sviatschi, 2018) . Less is known about how non-conflict countries can mitigate, in their border regions, the local economic impact of foreign conflicts.  \nTo address some of these challenges, we exploit the exogenous rise of Boko Haram in Nigeria after 2009 and estimate its local economic effects on neighboring areas within Cameroon, Chad and Niger (CCN), so outside Nigeria. Between 2009 and 2014, Boko Haram became the world’s deadliest terrorist group ahead ofISIL, the Taliban and Al-Shabaab (Institute for Economics  \n276 Examples of regional insurgencies plausibly affecting other countries include the Cabo Delgado insurgency in Mozambique (Tanzania), the ISIL insurgency in Iraq and Syria (Turkey but also Jordan and Lebanon), the insurgency in the Maghreb (other countries in West Africa), the Taliban ins","cbCaibK3gayoSnz6","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaibK3gayoSnz6","pdf",1351926,5,1,42,"English","en",105,"# Introduction\n## Spillover channels and policy questions\n## Empirical strategy and identification\n## Estimated effects on economic activity","[{\"question\":\"What is the main research question about foreign conflict in this paper?\",\"answer\":\"The paper examines the magnitude of cross-border economic spillovers from foreign conflict and the channels through which they operate, as well as how exposed border regions can mitigate these effects.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the study identify Boko Haram’s economic spillovers?\",\"answer\":\"It uses a difference-in-difference framework exploiting Boko Haram’s unexpected rise in 2009 in Northeastern Nigeria and compares neighboring areas in Cameroon, Chad, and Niger that were not directly targeted.\"},{\"question\":\"What are the key findings about the impact on regional economic activity?\",\"answer\":\"The paper finds a strong negative effect of Boko Haram on regional economic activities, especially within 200 km of the Boko Haram region, with effects consistent with reduced trade rather than diffusion of conflict.\"}]",1784474086,106,{"code":4,"msg":31,"data":32},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":33,"title":13,"keywords":34,"description":14,"schema_data":35,"social_meta":87,"head_meta":89,"extra_data":91,"updated_unix":28},"lake-chad-regional-economic-memorandum-technical-paper-3-estimating-the-spillover-economic-effects-of-foreign-conflict-evidence-from-boko-haram","",{"@graph":36,"@context":86},[37,54,69],{"@type":38,"itemListElement":39},"BreadcrumbList",[40,44,48,51],{"item":41,"name":42,"@type":43,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":45,"name":46,"@type":43,"position":47},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":49,"name":12,"@type":43,"position":50},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":52,"name":13,"@type":43,"position":53},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/lake-chad-regional-economic-memorandum-technical-paper-3-estimating-the-spillover-economic-effects-of-foreign-conflict-evidence-from-boko-haram/108812/",4,{"url":52,"name":13,"@type":55,"author":56,"headline":13,"publisher":58,"fileFormat":61,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":62,"datePublished":63,"encodingFormat":61,"isAccessibleForFree":64,"interactionStatistic":65},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":57},"Person",{"url":41,"name":59,"@type":60},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-29","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":66,"interactionType":67,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":68},"ViewAction",{"@type":70,"mainEntity":71},"FAQPage",[72,78,82],{"name":73,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":75},"What is the main research question about foreign conflict in this paper?","Question",{"text":76,"@type":77},"The paper examines the magnitude of cross-border economic spillovers from foreign conflict and the channels through which they operate, as well as how exposed border regions can mitigate these effects.","Answer",{"name":79,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":80},"How does the study identify Boko Haram’s economic spillovers?",{"text":81,"@type":77},"It uses a difference-in-difference framework exploiting Boko Haram’s unexpected rise in 2009 in Northeastern Nigeria and compares neighboring areas in Cameroon, Chad, and Niger that were not directly targeted.",{"name":83,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":84},"What are the key findings about the impact on regional economic activity?",{"text":85,"@type":77},"The paper finds a strong negative effect of Boko Haram on regional economic activities, especially within 200 km of the Boko Haram region, with effects consistent with reduced trade rather than 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