[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-108955-en":3,"doc-seo-108955-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":92},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},108955,1374391974564,"Clementine","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/14000253aa45c000a9e?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1779874745381141002",8,"Research & Report","Lake Chad Regional Economic Memorandum - Development for Peace - Technical Paper 5 - Conflict and Climate Change in the Lake Chad Region","Peace and security are treated as prerequisites for economic and social development, while conflict can reverse growth and damage nearly all development dimensions. The paper examines how climate factors relate to the geographic distribution of conflict in the Lake Chad region, using a sub-national approach that defines conflict exposure by district intensity and grid-cell incidence over multiple years. Results link temperature anomalies and negative NDVI anomalies to higher conflict, while rainfall and the SPEI show weaker effects.","Pub lic Disclosure Authorized Pub lic Disclosure Authorized Pub lic Disclosure Authorized Pub lic Disclosure Authorized  \nLake Chad Regional Economic Memorandum | Development for Peace  \nTechnical Paper 5.  \nConflict and Climate Change in the Lake Chad Region  \nPeter Fisker (University of Copenhagen)  \n 243  \n6.1 Introduction  \nPeace and security are basic conditions for economic and social development. Conflict, on the other hand, can reverse years of economic growth and induce longterm harm on almost all aspects of development. For the past decade, the Lake Chad region has been the setting of conflicts between government forces and armed groups, most notably the Boko Haram. Although the intensity of fighting has petered off in recent years, the conflict has spread from Northern Nigeria and now affects all four countries of the region.  \nDue to the paramount importance of avoiding armed conflict, a large economic literature exists that seeks to find explanations for the onset and prevalence of conflict in developing countries. Blattman and Miguel [2010] list some of the most common theories of conflict including competition for resources, economic grievances, and the possibility of looting.  \nMore recently, a strand of literature focuses more on geographic and climatic root causes of conflict.  \nFor instance, in a meta-analysis of 55 studies, Burke et al. [2015] find that higher temperatures is the most important climatic factor leading to more interpersonal and intergroup conflict. With a specific focus on civil war in Africa, Burke et al. [2009] warned that projected increases in temperatures could lead to 54 percent increase in armed conflicts by 2030. However, both studies conclude that more research is needed in order to understand the mechanisms behind this relationship as well as investigating the potential adverse effects of climate change. More recently, Eberle et al. [2020] found that a 1 degree increase in temperatures is associated with a 54 percent increase in conflict probability in areas that are home to both herders and farmers and a 17 percent increase in other areas of Africa. A central question is whether the effect goes through an ’income channel’ where conflict is ultimately caused by economic downturns due to lower agricultural productivity in periods of warmer temperatures—or whether the effect  \nis somehow physiological, as humans are generally shown, in the medical literature, to be more aggressive when temperatures are higher. Harari and Ferrara [2018] explore the ’income channel’ and find that part of the variation in conflict can be explained by a drought index when dis-aggregated to the growing period of the main crops across Africa. However, whether the results would hold without temperatures as an input to the SPEI is unclear.  \nThis paper attempts to shed light on the geographical distribution of conflict and its climatic determinants in the Lake Chad region following a sub-national approach where readily available spatial data is employed at two different units of aggregation: Firstly, 90 second level administrative areas, and secondly, around 5,318 grid cells covering the same region. Exposure to conflict is here defined as the intensity (for districts) or incidence (for cells) of conflict in a given unit in a given year. Parts of the population may not be directly exposed by this definition, but since the units of analysis are relatively small, most will be affected in some ways, for instance by safety concerns when visiting the nearest towns to trade or by the general economic consequences.  \nThe results of the analysis suggest, in line with the literature mentioned above, that temperature anomalies do have a positive impact on conflict across districts, cells and years. It also shows that negative NDVI (Normalised Difference Vegetation Index) anomalies are associated with more conflict—especially in cropland zones and during growing seasons. Rainfall anomalies as well as the SPEI (Standard","cbCaiuoVQdDq0wkF","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiuoVQdDq0wkF","pdf",798654,4,1,17,"English","en",105,"# 1. Introduction\n# 2. Data\n## 2.1 Geographical delimitation of the Lake Chad region\n## 2.2 Units of analysis: districts and grid cells\n# 3. Conflict exposure definition\n# 4. Empirical results and interpretation","[{\"question\":\"How does the paper define exposure to conflict?\",\"answer\":\"Exposure is defined as conflict intensity for districts and conflict incidence for grid cells within a given year. Even if individuals are not directly exposed, small units imply most are affected through safety and broader economic consequences.\"},{\"question\":\"Which climate-related indicators are found to be associated with more conflict?\",\"answer\":\"Temperature anomalies show a positive impact on conflict across districts, cells, and years, and negative NDVI anomalies are linked to more conflict, particularly in cropland zones and during growing seasons.\"},{\"question\":\"Do rainfall anomalies and the SPEI show similar effects as temperature and NDVI?\",\"answer\":\"No. Rainfall anomalies and the SPEI do not exhibit the same effect on conflict, which may indicate measurement issues or suggest that temperature and rainfall influence conflict through different pathways than the commonly cited drought-income channel.\"}]","Lake Chad Regional Economic Memorandum - Development for Peace - Technical Paper 5 - Conflict and Climate Change in the Lake Chad Region | PDF",1784475289,43,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":87,"head_meta":89,"extra_data":91,"updated_unix":29},"lake-chad-regional-economic-memorandum-development-for-peace-technical-paper-5-conflict-and-climate-change-in-the-lake-chad-region","",{"@graph":37,"@context":86},[38,54,69],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,49,52],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":48},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":50,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":51},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":53,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/lake-chad-regional-economic-memorandum-development-for-peace-technical-paper-5-conflict-and-climate-change-in-the-lake-chad-region/108955/",{"url":53,"name":13,"@type":55,"author":56,"headline":13,"publisher":58,"fileFormat":61,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":62,"datePublished":63,"encodingFormat":61,"isAccessibleForFree":64,"interactionStatistic":65},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":57},"Person",{"url":42,"name":59,"@type":60},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-31","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":66,"interactionType":67,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":68},"ViewAction",{"@type":70,"mainEntity":71},"FAQPage",[72,78,82],{"name":73,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":75},"How does the paper define exposure to conflict?","Question",{"text":76,"@type":77},"Exposure is defined as conflict intensity for districts and conflict incidence for grid cells within a given year. Even if individuals are not directly exposed, small units imply most are affected through safety and broader economic consequences.","Answer",{"name":79,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":80},"Which climate-related indicators are found to be associated with more conflict?",{"text":81,"@type":77},"Temperature anomalies show a positive impact on conflict across districts, cells, and years, and negative NDVI anomalies are linked to more conflict, particularly in cropland zones and during growing seasons.",{"name":83,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":84},"Do rainfall anomalies and the SPEI show similar effects as temperature and NDVI?",{"text":85,"@type":77},"No. Rainfall anomalies and the SPEI do not exhibit the same effect on conflict, which may indicate measurement issues or suggest that temperature and rainfall influence conflict through different pathways than the commonly cited drought-income channel.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":53,"og:type":88,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":59,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":90,"canonical":53},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":93},[94,98,102,106,111,116,121,124,129,132,136],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":95,"show_sort_weight":96,"slug":97},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":48,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":99,"show_sort_weight":100,"slug":101},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":103,"show_sort_weight":104,"slug":105},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":107,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":112,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":113,"show_sort_weight":114,"slug":115},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":117,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":118,"show_sort_weight":119,"slug":120},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":122,"slug":123},30,"research-report",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":126,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":128},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":127,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":130,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":131},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":133,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":134,"show_sort_weight":133,"slug":135},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":137,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":138,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":139},19,"General","general"]