[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-108655-en":3,"doc-seo-108655-105":30,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":28,"read_time":29},108655,7971461740886,"Theodore","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_3d24733baf745e90a7e4bdd5f77d97b2",8,"Research & Report","Labor Markets, Poverty and Equity in Brazil in 2021","The analysis projects labor market outcomes for Brazil in 2021 under three scenarios—optimistic, intermediate, and pessimistic—each reflecting different assumed dynamism in response to economic growth. Employment, unemployment, wages, and informality are simulated using macroeconomic growth forecasts and employment elasticities, calibrated on recent labor market data. The study further quantifies how an extension of Auxílio Emergencial affects poverty and extreme poverty, reporting scenario-specific poverty rates and additional individuals at risk compared with 2020.","Public Disc losure Authorized  \nPOVERTY GP NOTES  \nJULY 2021  \nLabor Markets, Poverty and Equity in Brazil in 2021  \nAuthors: Rafael Macedo Rubião, Gabriel Lara Ibarra & Ricardo Campante C. Vale 1  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nMain messages  \n• We project three scenarios of labor market outcomes, as well as their impact on poverty and inequality. The scenarios (optimistic, intermediate, and pessimistic) account for different levels of dynamism in response to the projected economic growth. The pessimistic scenario uses labor market elasticities as observed in the post 2014 crisis period.  \n• Employment rates are projected to stay above 2019 levels by 0.5 p.p. in our optimistic scenario, but 2.9 p.p. below for our pessimistic scenario. The employment recovery is expected to be led by the industry, following the 7% GDP growth projected for this sector in 2021.  \n• Unemployment rates will average 11.2% in 2021 in our optimistic scenario with a 58.9% labor force participation rate. In our pessimistic scenario, unemployment will hover around 14.6% .  \n• Wages are projected to rise in all the economic sectors and overcome 2019 levels, except for informal agriculture.  \n• Incorporating the (recently approved) Auxilio Emergencial extension, our optimistic scenario projects that the poverty rate in 2021 (measured by the ½ MW line) could be 24.4%, and extreme poverty (measured by the PBF line) 5.6% . This corresponds to 2.7 and 4 million more individuals in poverty and extreme poverty, respectively, than in 2020.  \n• The pessimistic scenario finds in 2021 a poverty rate of 25.6%(measured by the ½ MW line), and extreme poverty to 6.2%, as measured by the PBF line. Compared to 2020, this corresponds to 5.2 and 5.3 million more individuals in poverty and extreme poverty, respectively.  \n• AE is responsible to keep 4.7 and 2.7 million individuals out of poverty and extreme poverty, respectively, in the optimistic scenario. In the pessimistic scenario, these figures increase to 4.9 and 2.8 million individuals, respectively. In the same pessimistic scenario, the number of extreme poor in 2021 would surpass the 2019’s one without AE.  \nIntroduction  \nWe apply the methodology in Olivieri (2020) for simulating the post-covid labor market and welfare outcomes in Brazil. This methodology works with macroeconomic projections of (overall and sectoral) economic growth combined with a series of employment elasticities to estimate a broad series of labor market outcomes such as labor force participation, and employment (by sector) . Having simulated a new distribution of working individuals, we estimate associated incomes and the corresponding welfare distributions.  \nThe first building block for this set of simulations is the World Bank’s latest GDP projections, together with its sectoral components. The macroeconomic inputs for this version of the projections can be found on Table 1 below. As of June 2021, GDP is expected to grow 4.5%  \n1 Projection methodology follow a similar approach as Olivieri (2020), and we thank Sergio Olivieri for kindly sharing with us his model.  \nin 2021, more than compensating the sharp 4.1% drop observed in 2020 and puts the product above 2019 levels by 0.2% .  \nTable 1: The World Bank’s Macroeconomic Projections from June 2021  \n\n|  | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 f | 2022 f |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n| Real GDP growth, at constant market prices | 1.4 | -4.1 | 4.5 | 2.5 |\n| Real GDP growth, at constant factor prices | 1.3 | -3.8 | 4.5 | 2.5 |\n| Agriculture | 0.6 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 |\n| Industry | 0.4 | -3.5 | 7.0 | 1.9 |\n| Services | 1.7 | -4.6 | 3.0 | 2.8 |\n\nSource: The World Bank  \nThe second building block of this analysis is the Brazilian labor market quarterly data between 2012(Q1) -2021(Q1), which we use to compute the recent labor market trendsand estimate several sets of growth-employment elasticities of a series of key indicators:  \n(1) Labor force participation (LFP); (2) sectoral employment and (3) informality ","cbCaimFZtpKrjBHT","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaimFZtpKrjBHT","pdf",264185,4,1,5,"English","en",105,"# Main messages\n## Labor market scenarios and employment outcomes\n## Poverty and extreme poverty impacts\n# Introduction\n## Simulation methodology based on macro projections and elasticities\n## Key data inputs and growth assumptions\n## Labor force participation dynamics\n# Labor Market Projections\n## Participation rate assumptions and scenario anchoring","[{\"question\":\"How are the three 2021 labor market scenarios defined?\",\"answer\":\"They are anchored in different employment-sector GDP elasticities and assumed sectoral composition changes, while keeping a fixed set of elasticities for labor force participation and informality across scenarios.\"},{\"question\":\"What is projected for employment and unemployment in the optimistic versus pessimistic scenarios?\",\"answer\":\"Employment is projected to remain above 2019 levels in the optimistic scenario, but to fall below in the pessimistic scenario. Unemployment averages about 11.2% in 2021 in the optimistic scenario and hovers around 14.6% in the pessimistic scenario.\"},{\"question\":\"How does extending Auxílio Emergencial (AE) affect poverty outcomes in 2021?\",\"answer\":\"In the optimistic scenario, AE helps keep about 4.7 million people out of poverty and about 2.7 million out of extreme poverty. In the pessimistic scenario, these figures rise to about 4.9 million and 2.8 million respectively, and extreme poverty would surpass 2019 without AE.\"}]",1784472989,13,{"code":4,"msg":31,"data":32},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":33,"title":13,"keywords":34,"description":14,"schema_data":35,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":28},"labor-markets-poverty-and-equity-in-brazil-in-2021","",{"@graph":36,"@context":85},[37,53,68],{"@type":38,"itemListElement":39},"BreadcrumbList",[40,44,48,51],{"item":41,"name":42,"@type":43,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":45,"name":46,"@type":43,"position":47},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":49,"name":12,"@type":43,"position":50},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":52,"name":13,"@type":43,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/labor-markets-poverty-and-equity-in-brazil-in-2021/108655/",{"url":52,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":41,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-31","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"How are the three 2021 labor market scenarios defined?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"They are anchored in different employment-sector GDP elasticities and assumed sectoral composition changes, while keeping a fixed set of elasticities for labor force participation and informality across scenarios.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"What is projected for employment and unemployment in the optimistic versus pessimistic scenarios?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"Employment is projected to remain above 2019 levels in the optimistic scenario, but to fall below in the pessimistic scenario. Unemployment averages about 11.2% in 2021 in the optimistic scenario and hovers around 14.6% in the pessimistic scenario.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"How does extending Auxílio Emergencial (AE) affect poverty outcomes in 2021?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"In the optimistic scenario, AE helps keep about 4.7 million people out of poverty and about 2.7 million out of extreme poverty. In the pessimistic scenario, these figures rise to about 4.9 million and 2.8 million respectively, and extreme poverty would surpass 2019 without AE.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":52,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":52},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,109,114,119,122,127,130,134],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":47,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":22,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":106,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":108},"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":110,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":111,"show_sort_weight":112,"slug":113},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":115,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":116,"show_sort_weight":117,"slug":118},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":120,"slug":121},30,"research-report",{"id":123,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":124,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":126},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":128,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":129},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":131,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":132,"show_sort_weight":131,"slug":133},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":135,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":136,"show_sort_weight":22,"slug":137},19,"General","general"]