[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110371-en":3,"doc-seo-110371-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},110371,549758252649,"Ivy","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/8000253669c5317157?_k=1778319167496531819",8,"Research & Report","Kyrgyz Republic - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - Moderate Risk Assessment","Joint World Bank-IMF debt sustainability analysis for the Kyrgyz Republic concludes that both the risk of external debt distress and the overall risk of public debt distress remain moderate. The assessment finds no breaches of external debt thresholds under standard shocks, while a customized stress test on exports and broader global uncertainty support sustainability with moderate risk. Baseline projections keep the PV of total public debt-to-GDP within limits until after 2032, but standard stress tests breach thresholds. Debt-carrying capacity is assessed as strong, yet fiscal space is narrowing due to the 2022 public wage increase, making consolidation and stronger debt and investment management essential.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nLalita M. Moorty and Manuela Francisco (IDA) and Subir Lall and Uma Ramakrishnan (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| KYRGYZ REPUBLIC: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Tool not applicable 1 |\n| Application of judgment | Yes for external PPG; No for total PPG |\n\nThe risk of overall public debt distress remains at moderate on account of the rapid accumulation of domestic debt. While there is no breach of the external debt thresholds under any standard shock, by applying a customized stress test on exports reflecting the recent discontinuation of gold exports the rapid rise in transit trade, and considering the heightened global uncertainty, staffs judge external public debt to be sustainable and at moderate risk of debt distress. The PV of total public debt-to-GDP does not breach its threshold under the baseline scenario before 2032, but it does under a standard stress test, thus warranting a “moderate” rating for the overall risk of debt distress. The Kyrgyz Republic’s current debt-carrying capacity is assessed as strong, but fiscal space to absorb shocks is narrowing after the substantial public wage increase in 2022.2 Without fiscal consolidation public debt will continue to rise in the longer term. Improving tax collections, reducing the wage bill and energy subsidies, strengthening debt management, avoiding non-concessional borrowing and improving public investment management would be important to reduce fiscal imbalances and containing debt vulnerabilities.  \n1 The tool for granularity assessment is not applied because the moderate risk comes from the staffs’ judgement.  \n2 The DSA follows the IMF and World Bank Staff Guidance Note on the Application of the Joint Fund-Bank Debt Sustainability Framework (DSF) for Low-Income Countries (LICs) . See IMF, 2018, Guidance Note on the Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries.  \n1. Public and Publicly Guaranteed (PPG) debt covers state government debt (both central and local government), state guarantees, and the debt of the central bank to the IMF (Text Table 1) . Almost all public sector debt is issued by the central government. The 2021 SDR allocation (SDR 170 million, equivalent to USD 242 million) was transferred from the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic (NBKR) to the Government to pay for external debt service. The full amount is projected to be drawn down over 2022-23 and therefore is counted fully toward public debt after that point. Local governments have no external debt and insignificant domestic debt. The social security fund has no debt. State-owned enterprises (SOEs) mostly borrow from the government and have no external debt. Their short-term domestic borrowing from the banking sector is limited and they do not have long-term domestic debt. In addition, the government has no outstanding guarantees.3 An analysis of fiscal risks by the World Bank found no significant PPG debt for new companies created as PublicPrivate Partnerships. Nevertheless, given the large stock of liabilities associated with the energy sector (equivalent to around 20 percent of GDP), a contingent liability shock of 7 percent of GDP was applied, of which 2 percent of GDP reflects an operational risk stemming from the structural cash shortfall of lossmaking energy sector SOEs4 and 5 percent of GDP is the default value representing the average cost to the government during a financial crisis (Text Table 2) .  \n\n|  |  |  |  |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- |\n|  | 1\u003Cbr>2\u003Cbr>3\u003Cbr>4\u003Cbr>5\u003Cbr>6\u003Cbr>7\u003Cbr>8 | Subsectors of the public sector Sub-sectors covered |  |\n|  |  | Central government X\u003Cbr>State and local government X\u003Cbr>Other elements in the general governmen","cbCaigZE4myvTbxn","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaigZE4myvTbxn","pdf",897594,1,18,"English","en",105,"# Risk of debt distress\n## External debt distress risk\n## Overall public debt distress risk\n## Tools and judgment application\n# Key drivers and policy implications\n## Domestic debt accumulation and stress tests\n## Debt-carrying capacity and fiscal space\n## Recommended measures","[{\"question\":\"What does the analysis conclude about the risk of external debt distress?\",\"answer\":\"The risk of external debt distress is rated moderate. No breach of external debt thresholds occurs under standard shock scenarios.\"},{\"question\":\"Why is the overall risk of debt distress also rated moderate?\",\"answer\":\"The PV of total public debt-to-GDP does not breach its threshold under the baseline, but it does under a standard stress test, leading to a “moderate” overall rating.\"},{\"question\":\"What factors are said to narrow fiscal space and increase medium- to long-term vulnerability?\",\"answer\":\"Fiscal space is narrowing after the substantial public wage increase in 2022, and without fiscal consolidation public debt is expected to continue rising in the longer term.\"}]",1784485118,45,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"kyrgyz-republic-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-moderate-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/kyrgyz-republic-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-moderate-risk-assessment/110371/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-22","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What does the analysis conclude about the risk of external debt distress?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"The risk of external debt distress is rated moderate. No breach of external debt thresholds occurs under standard shock scenarios.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Why is the overall risk of debt distress also rated moderate?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"The PV of total public debt-to-GDP does not breach its threshold under the baseline, but it does under a standard stress test, leading to a “moderate” overall rating.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"What factors are said to narrow fiscal space and increase medium- to long-term vulnerability?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"Fiscal space is narrowing after the substantial public wage increase in 2022, and without fiscal consolidation public debt is expected to continue rising in the longer term.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,110,115,120,123,128,131,135],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]