[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111011-en":3,"doc-seo-111011-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":90},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111011,13056703020460,"Valentina","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/be000253dac470eee5d?_k=1778207105932848923",8,"Research & Report","Kyrgyz Republic - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - June 2021","The joint World Bank and IMF debt sustainability analysis evaluates whether the Kyrgyz Republic’s public debt remains sustainable under standard stress scenarios. Results show moderate risk of external debt distress and moderate overall risk, with vulnerabilities tied to export shocks for external debt and real GDP growth shocks for total debt. Standard-shock threshold breaches translate into the moderate ratings, while the country’s debt-carrying capacity is assessed as strong.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION  \nINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nTHE KYRGYZ REPUBLIC  \nJoint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis  \nJune 2021  \nPrepared Jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA)  \nand the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Approved by Marcello Estevão and Lalita M. Moorty (IDA), Subir Lall (IMF)  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \n\n| The Kyrgyz Republic-Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Some Space |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nThis debt sustainability analysis (DSA) indicates that the Kyrgyz Republic’s public debt remains sustainable and at moderate risk of debt distress for both external public debt and total public debt. The external and total public debt outlooks remain vulnerable to export shocks and real GDP growth shocks, respectively. The breaches of the debt thresholds under these standard shocksimply moderate risk ratings for external and total public debt. The Kyrgyz Republic’s current debtcarrying capacity is assessed as strong, and there remains some space to absorb shocks, despite the COVID crisis-induced spike in total public debt to 68 percent of GDP in 2020.1 Without consolidation measures, public debt would continue to rise in the longer term. Strengthening debt management, avoiding non-concessional borrowing and improving public investment management would help reduce fiscal and external imbalances, thus containing debt vulnerabilities.  \nPublic Debt Coverage  \n1 The DSA follows the IMF and World Bank Staff Guidance Note on the Application of the Joint Fund-Bank Debt Sustainability Framework (DSF) for Low-Income Countries (LICs) . See IMF, 2018, Guidance Note on the Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries. The Kyrgyz Republic’s debt-carrying capacity remains strong as its Composite Indicator is 3.123, which is based on the 2020 October WEO and the 2019 CPIA that was released in July 2020.  \n1. The debt covers state government debt (both central and local government), state guarantees, and the debt of the central bank to the IMF (Text Table 1). Almost all public sector debt is issued by the central government. Local governments have no external debt and insignificant domestic debt. The social security fund has no debt. State-owned enterprises (SOEs) mostly borrow from the government, have no external debt and limited short-term domestic borrowing from the banking sector. In addition, the government has no outstanding guarantees, as the budget code prevents the state from guaranteeing debt of SOEs and other public entities since 2007, except when stipulated by the obligations of memberships in international and inter-governmental organizations. Nevertheless, a contingent liability shock of 7 percent of GDP was applied, reflecting risks stemming from the operation of SOEs (2 percent of GDP, which is about the structural cash shortfall of loss-making energy sector SOEs)2 and the default value representing the average cost to the government during a financial crisis (5 percent of GDP, Text Table 2) .  \n\n| Text Table 1. Kyrgyz Republic: Public Debt Coverage |\n| --- |\n| 1\u003Cbr>2\u003Cbr>3\u003Cbr>4\u003Cbr>5\u003Cbr>6\u003Cbr>7\u003Cbr>8 Subsectors of the public sector Sub-sectors covered Central government\u003Cbr>State and local government\u003Cbr>Other elements in the general government\u003Cbr>o/w: Social security fund\u003Cbr>o/w: Extra budgetary funds (EBFs)\u003Cbr>Guarantees (to other entities in the public and private sector, including to SOEs)\u003Cbr>Central bank (borrowed on behalf of the government)\u003Cbr>Non-guaranteed SOE debt X\u003Cbr>X\u003Cbr>X\u003Cbr>X |\n|  |\n\nText Table 2. Kyrgyz Republic: Combined Contingent Liability Shock  \n\n| 1 The country's coverage of public debt | The central, state, and local governments, central bank, government-guaranteed debt |  |  |  |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n|  | Us","cbCaitXoioMtLLcU","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaitXoioMtLLcU","pdf",510760,1,18,"English","en",105,"# Executive Summary\n# Public Debt Coverage\n# Combined Contingent Liability Shock\n# Background\n## Recent Debt Developments (2015-2020)\n# Underlying Assumptions","[{\"question\":\"What is the overall risk assessment for the Kyrgyz Republic’s debt?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis finds public debt remains sustainable with a moderate overall risk of debt distress.\"},{\"question\":\"What shocks most affect external and total debt outlooks?\",\"answer\":\"External debt outlooks are vulnerable to export shocks, while total public debt outlooks are vulnerable to real GDP growth shocks.\"},{\"question\":\"How is the contingent liability shock incorporated in the analysis?\",\"answer\":\"A combined contingent liability shock of 7 percent of GDP is applied, reflecting risks from SOE operations and a default value representing average government costs during a financial crisis.\"}]",1784488134,45,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":85,"head_meta":87,"extra_data":89,"updated_unix":27},"kyrgyz-republic-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-june-2021","",{"@graph":35,"@context":84},[36,53,67],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/kyrgyz-republic-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-june-2021/111011/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":61,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":62,"interactionStatistic":63},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":64,"interactionType":65,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":66},"ViewAction",{"@type":68,"mainEntity":69},"FAQPage",[70,76,80],{"name":71,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":73},"What is the overall risk assessment for the Kyrgyz Republic’s debt?","Question",{"text":74,"@type":75},"The analysis finds public debt remains sustainable with a moderate overall risk of debt distress.","Answer",{"name":77,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":78},"What shocks most affect external and total debt outlooks?",{"text":79,"@type":75},"External debt outlooks are vulnerable to export shocks, while total public debt outlooks are vulnerable to real GDP growth shocks.",{"name":81,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":82},"How is the contingent liability shock incorporated in the analysis?",{"text":83,"@type":75},"A combined contingent liability shock of 7 percent of GDP is applied, reflecting risks from SOE operations and a default value representing average government costs during a financial 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