[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111547-en":3,"doc-seo-111547-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111547,8796095461610,"Oliver","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_276721f389ce27ea32af1340a28f341c",8,"Research & Report","Kyrgyz Republic - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - Moderate debt distress risk","Staff assesses the Kyrgyz Republic’s public debt as sustainable under moderate risks of external and overall debt distress. Threshold breaches occur for all four external debt ratios during a standard exports shock, and for the PV of total debt to GDP during a standard growth shock, while the baseline keeps the PV of public debt rising to 39.7 percent of GDP by 2035, still below its threshold. External debt distress remains moderate because external burden indicators trend downward and breaches are limited. Fiscal space requires improving tax collection, containing wage and energy subsidy pressures, strengthening debt management, seeking concessional financing, and improving public investment management.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Asad Alam (IDA), and Subir Lall and Stefania Fabrizio (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| KYRGYZ REPUBLIC: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Some space to absorb shocks |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nStaff assesses the Kyrgyz Republic’s public debt as sustainable with moderate risks of external and overall debt distress. There is a breach of the relevant thresholds for all four external debt ratios for a sustained period under a standard shock to exports, and a breach of the threshold for the PV of total debt to GDP under a standard shock to growth. Under the baseline, the PV of the stock of public debt continues to rise to 39.7 percent of GDP by 2035, which is below its threshold and therefore results in a moderate risk of total debt distress. Similarly, none of the external debt ratios breach their threshold under the baseline, leading to a moderate risk of external debt distress. Because the external debt burden indicators trend downward and the breaches are limited, staffs judge external and total public debt to be sustainable. Creating fiscal space and containing debt vulnerabilities will require improving tax collections, sustaining efforts to reduce the wage bill and energy subsidies, strengthening debt management, seeking concessional financing and improving public investment management.  \n1. Public and Publicly Guaranteed (PPG) debt covers state government debt (both central and local government), state guarantees, and the debt of the central bank to the IMF (Text Table 1) . Almost all public sector debt is issued by the central government. The part of the 2021 SDR allocation that has been drawn down is counted toward public debt. Local governments have no external debt and insignificant  \ndomestic debt. The social security fund has no debt. State-owned enterprises (SOEs) mostly borrow from the government and have no external debt by law. Their short-term domestic borrowing from the banking sector is limited and they do not have long-term domestic debt. In addition, the government has no outstanding guarantees.1 As of end-2024, there is no significant PPG debt for new companies created as Public-Private Partnerships. As in the previous DSA, given the large stock of liabilities associated with the energy sector (equivalent to around 15 percent of GDP in 20222), and the recent conversion into equity of energy SOE debt, a contingent liability shock of 13 percent of GDP is applied, of which 8 percent of GDP are potential expenditures not included in the baseline, reflecting an operational risk stemming from the structural cash shortfall of loss-making energy sector SOEs3 ; and 5 percent of GDP is the default value representing the average cost to the government during a financial crisis (Text Table 2) .  \n\n|  |\n| --- |\n|  |\n|  |\n\n| 1 | The country's coverage of public debt The central, state, and local governments, central bank, government-guaranteed debt |\n| --- | --- |\n|  | \u003Cbr>Default\u003Cbr>Used for the\u003Cbr>analysis Reasons for deviations from the default settings |\n| 2 | Other elements of the general government not captured in 1. 0 percent of GDP 0.0 |\n| 3 | SoE's debt (guaranteed and not guaranteed by the government) 1/ 2 percent of GDP 8.0 |\n| 4 | PPP 35 percent of PPP stock 0.0 |\n| 5 | Financial market (the default value of 5 percent of GDP is the minimum value) 5 percent of GDP  5.0 \u003Cbr>Total (2+3+4+5) (in percent of GDP) 13.0 |\n| 1/ The default shock of 2% of GDP will be triggered for countries whose government-guaranteed debt is not fully captured under the country's public debt definition (1 .) . If it is already included in the government debt (1 .) and risks associated with So","cbCairSewnRUNjeQ","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCairSewnRUNjeQ","pdf",1170796,1,21,"English","en",105,"# Risk assessment\n## External debt distress\n## Overall debt distress\n# Debt coverage and assumptions\n## Public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt\n## Contingent liability shock for the energy sector\n## Baseline and threshold results\n# Debt dynamics and creditor structure\n## Public debt trends\n## External debt denomination\n## Major creditors","[{\"question\":\"What is the overall conclusion of the Kyrgyz Republic’s debt sustainability assessment?\",\"answer\":\"Public debt is assessed as sustainable, with moderate risk of both external and overall debt distress.\"},{\"question\":\"Which shocks trigger threshold breaches in the external and total debt indicators?\",\"answer\":\"A standard shock to exports triggers sustained breaches across all four external debt ratios, and a standard shock to growth breaches the threshold for the PV of total debt to GDP.\"},{\"question\":\"Why does the assessment still rate external and total debt distress as moderate under the baseline?\",\"answer\":\"Under the baseline, the PV of total debt to GDP rises to 39.7 percent of GDP by 2035 but remains below the threshold, while none of the external debt ratios breach their thresholds and external burden indicators trend downward.\"}]",1784490621,53,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"kyrgyz-republic-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-moderate-debt-distress-risk","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/kyrgyz-republic-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-moderate-debt-distress-risk/111547/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What is the overall conclusion of the Kyrgyz Republic’s debt sustainability assessment?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"Public debt is assessed as sustainable, with moderate risk of both external and overall debt distress.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Which shocks trigger threshold breaches in the external and total debt indicators?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"A standard shock to exports triggers sustained breaches across all four external debt ratios, and a standard shock to growth breaches the threshold for the PV of total debt to GDP.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"Why does the assessment still rate external and total debt distress as moderate under the baseline?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"Under the baseline, the PV of total debt to GDP rises to 39.7 percent of GDP by 2035 but remains below the threshold, while none of the external debt ratios breach their thresholds and external burden indicators trend 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