[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111517-en":3,"doc-seo-111517-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111517,8796095461564,"Liam","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_155a257f0dc6eb9ab79c44ca47cae57d",8,"Research & Report","Kiribati - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - Debt Distress Risk","Kiribati’s debt is assessed as sustainable, but the overall risk of external debt distress and the composite risk of debt distress remain high. Mechanical indicators suggest moderate distress risks, while judgment extends the projection horizon to 20 years to better reflect climate-change-driven vulnerabilities and the likelihood of breaches beyond indicative thresholds. Under the baseline, PPG external and total PPG debt-to-GDP ratios breach starting in 2038 and 2044, and stress tests highlight sensitivity to contingent liabilities and growth shocks.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Lalita M. Moorty (IDA) , and Corinne Deléchat, Niamh Sheridan (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)1  \n\n| KIRIBATI: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | Yes. The projection horizon was extended to 20 years to capture the impact of climate change on debt dynamics. |\n\nKiribati debt remains sustainable but at high risk of debt distress, unchanged from the 2025 Article IV Debt Sustainability Analysis. While the mechanical signals indicate moderate risks of debt distress, judgment was applied to extend the projection horizon to 20 years to adequately capture climate-related vulnerabilities that can lead to large and persistent breaches of the indicative threshold/benchmark with high probability.2 Under the baseline scenario, the present value of public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) external debt-to-GDP and overall PPG debt-to-GDP ratios are expected to breach their respective indicative threshold/benchmark starting in 2038 and 2044. Stress tests confirm vulnerability to contingent liabilities and growth shocks. Despite the high risk of debt distress, Kiribati’s debt is assessed to be sustainable due to several mitigating factors: (1) grant-only status for financing from multilateral development banks; (2) availability of cash buffers and sovereign wealth fund withdrawals that can finance deficits; and (3) in the baseline, the breaches occur only in the long term. Continued access to highly concessional financing to support the country’s large development needs is needed to contain the risk of debt distress.  \n1 This DSA has been prepared jointly by the IMF and World Bank, in line with the Guidance Note of the Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries, February 2018.  \n2 The composite indicator based on the October 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO) and 2024 World Bank Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) data, which was published in July 2025, is estimated at 2 .73, corresponding to a medium Debt Carrying Capacity.  \n1. The coverage of Kiribati’s public sector debt is the central government, central government guaranteed debt, and social security fund (Text Table 1) .3 The DSA is conducted on a residency basis. Debt coverage is broadly appropriate, although the timeliness of balance sheet information for state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and lack of data on joint venture companies, including with minority state ownership, are limiting factors. Recent and planned technical assistance by the Fund and the World Bank’s Sustainable Development Financing Policy (SDFP) aims to improve government financial statistics (GFS) data availability and coverage by implementing an integrated financial management information system (IFMIS) and improve fiscal and debt reporting. SOE reporting practices have continued to improve. This DSA relies on 2023 SOE financial statements, though 16 out of 18 SOEs have submitted their 2024 financial statements to the SOE Monitoring and Advisory Unit (SOEMAU) with an aim to complete auditing by the end of 2026.  \n\n|  |  |  |  |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- |\n|  | 1\u003Cbr>2\u003Cbr>3\u003Cbr>4\u003Cbr>5\u003Cbr>6\u003Cbr>7\u003Cbr>8 | Subsectors of the public sector Sub-sectors covered |  |\n|  |  | Central government X\u003Cbr>State and local government\u003Cbr>Other elements in the general government\u003Cbr>o/w: Social security fund X\u003Cbr>o/w: Extra budgetary funds (EBFs)\u003Cbr>Guarantees (to other entities in the public and private sector, including to SOEs) X Central bank (borrowed on behalf of the government)\u003Cbr>Non-guaranteed SOE debt |  |\n\n|  |\n| --- |\n| 1 The country's coverage of public debt See Text Table 1 Default Used for the\u003Cbr>analysis Reasons for devi","cbCaivsqrLlJq2Zb","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaivsqrLlJq2Zb","pdf",994383,1,23,"English","en",105,"# Executive Summary\n## Risk assessment and judgment\n## Baseline and stress test results\n## Mitigating factors and financing needs\n# Coverage, methodology, and data limitations\n## Public sector debt coverage\n## Contingent liabilities and shock assumptions\n## Data sources and planned technical assistance","[{\"question\":\"What is the overall assessment of Kiribati’s debt sustainability?\",\"answer\":\"Kiribati debt is considered sustainable, but it faces a high risk of external debt distress and overall debt distress.\"},{\"question\":\"Why is judgment applied to extend the projection horizon to 20 years?\",\"answer\":\"The horizon is extended to capture climate change impacts on debt dynamics and the high probability of large and persistent threshold breaches.\"},{\"question\":\"When do baseline breaches start for PPG debt indicators?\",\"answer\":\"Under the baseline scenario, PPG external debt-to-GDP breaches begin in 2038 and overall PPG debt-to-GDP breaches begin in 2044.\"}]",1784490494,58,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"kiribati-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/kiribati-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk/111517/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What is the overall assessment of Kiribati’s debt sustainability?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"Kiribati debt is considered sustainable, but it faces a high risk of external debt distress and overall debt distress.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Why is judgment applied to extend the projection horizon to 20 years?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"The horizon is extended to capture climate change impacts on debt dynamics and the high probability of large and persistent threshold breaches.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"When do baseline breaches start for PPG debt indicators?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"Under the baseline scenario, PPG external debt-to-GDP breaches begin in 2038 and overall PPG debt-to-GDP breaches begin in 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