[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110293-en":3,"doc-seo-110293-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},110293,3848291630094,"Emma Wilson","https://eur-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_085a072bc5b1113ac321206ff7593b45",8,"Research & Report","Kiribati - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - Debt Distress Risk Assessment","The 2023 Debt Sustainability Analysis for Kiribati assesses the risk of external and overall debt distress as high, while judging the debt trajectory as sustainable. Persistent recurrent spending combined with declining fishing revenues produced large fiscal deficits in 2021–22, and continued deficit financing is expected through the medium term. Under the baseline, breaches are projected for the PV of external debt-to-GDP starting in 2030 and for total public debt-to-GDP starting in 2032, with stress tests confirming vulnerability to plausible shocks. Despite this, grant-only financing access, sizable cash buffers, and the long-term nature of indicator breaches mitigate distress risk, while fiscal consolidation and structural reforms are recommended to reduce debt risks and protect medium- and long-run sustainability.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nHassan Zaman and Manuela Francisco (IDA) and Cheng Hoon Lim and Anna Ilyina (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association(IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| KIRIBATI: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nThe 2023 Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) indicates the risk rating of debt distress for Kiribati remains high but is sustainable.1 High recurrent spending amid a decline in fishing revenues has led to large fiscal deficits in 2021–22. Maintaining existing social protection spending and introducing new leave grants for private sector employees in the 2023 budget will cause the fiscal balance to remain in deficit over the medium term, a departure from a surplus prior to the pandemic. As a result, the ratio of the present value (PV) of the public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) external debt-to-GDP is expected to breach the indicative threshold starting in 2030 under the baseline scenario. Moreover, the PV of the total public debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to breach the indicative benchmark starting in 2032 under the baseline scenario. Stress tests confirm the vulnerability of the debt position to plausible shocks. Despite high risk of debt distress, Kiribati’s debt trajectory is assessed to be sustainable as its vulnerability to debt distress is mitigated by several factors: (i) the country currently benefits from its grant-only status for financing from the multilateral development banks (MDBs) and it is likely to maintain access to highly concessional financing over the long term; (ii) the government has large cash buffers which can be drawn on to finance deficits in the near term; and (iii) the breaches occur only in the long term and only for the PV of the debt-to-GDP ratios, while all the other ratios are expected to remain well below their indicative thresholds. Consequently, Kiribati’s debt trajectory is assessed to be sustainable.  \n1 Kiribati’s Composite Indicator (CI) index is 2.70 calculated based on the October 2022 World Economic Outlook (WEO) and the 2021 Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA), indicating \"medium\" debt-carrying capacity.  \nAlthough Kiribati does not currently face debt servicing risks thanks to the high cash buffers, risks from unfavorable weather conditions or a downturn in global financial markets (which would reduce the value of Kiribati’s sovereign wealth fund) call for greater fiscal prudence. Fiscal consolidation will be necessary to reduce fiscal risks by scaling back recurrent spending and mobilizing higher revenue. Further progress in structural and fiscal reforms, such as formulating a sustainable medium-term fiscal framework , improving public financial management, and placing stateowned enterprises (SOEs) on a commercial and sustainable footing, is also needed to improve debt trajectories and safeguard medium-and long-run fiscal sustainability. Containing the risk of debt distress also requires continuation of grants to support the country’s large development needs.  \n1. The coverage of Kiribati’s public sector debt is the central government, central government-guaranteed debts and social security fund (Text Table 1) . The DSA is conducted on residency basis. Data availability limits the debt coverage, especially the lack of information on a regularly updated balance sheet for the SOEs. Recent and planned technical assistance aim to improve data availability and coverage over time by reviewing the government financial statistics and greater data collection of the SOEs. Supported by the World Bank’s FY2023 Sustainable Development Financing Policy (SDFP), the authorities published a Fiscal Reporting Policy in 2022, setting out new standards for regular public reporting on rev","cbCaiqqJQHwvEoOz","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiqqJQHwvEoOz","pdf",876860,1,21,"English","en",105,"# Key DSA risk results\n## External and overall debt distress risk\n## Granularity and judgment application\n# Baseline outlook and breach conditions\n## Fiscal drivers and medium-term balance\n## Indicative threshold breaches (PV ratios)\n# Vulnerability, stress tests, and mitigation factors\n## Stress test coverage of contingent liabilities\n## Reasons debt trajectory remains sustainable\n# Data coverage and reporting improvements\n## Public sector debt scope and limitations\n## Policies supporting fiscal reporting and data availability\n# Policy implications\n## Fiscal prudence and consolidation measures\n## Structural and public financial management reforms","[{\"question\":\"What does the 2023 DSA conclude about Kiribati’s debt distress risk?\",\"answer\":\"Both external debt distress risk and overall risk of debt distress are assessed as high. The debt trajectory is nevertheless considered sustainable.\"},{\"question\":\"When are breaches of indicative debt thresholds expected under the baseline scenario?\",\"answer\":\"The PV of public and publicly guaranteed external debt-to-GDP is expected to breach starting in 2030, while the PV of total public debt-to-GDP is expected to breach starting in 2032.\"},{\"question\":\"Which factors mitigate the high debt distress risk and support a “sustainable” assessment?\",\"answer\":\"Kiribati benefits from grant-only financing from multilateral development banks, likely sustaining highly concessional financing; it has large cash buffers; and breaches are confined to long-term PV debt-to-GDP indicators while other ratios remain below thresholds.\"}]",1784484756,53,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"kiribati-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/kiribati-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment/110293/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-22","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What does the 2023 DSA conclude about Kiribati’s debt distress risk?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"Both external debt distress risk and overall risk of debt distress are assessed as high. The debt trajectory is nevertheless considered sustainable.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"When are breaches of indicative debt thresholds expected under the baseline scenario?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"The PV of public and publicly guaranteed external debt-to-GDP is expected to breach starting in 2030, while the PV of total public debt-to-GDP is expected to breach starting in 2032.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"Which factors mitigate the high debt distress risk and support a “sustainable” assessment?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"Kiribati benefits from grant-only financing from multilateral development banks, likely sustaining highly concessional financing; it has large cash buffers; and breaches are confined to long-term PV debt-to-GDP indicators while other ratios remain below thresholds.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,110,115,120,123,128,131,135],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]