[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111221-en":3,"doc-seo-111221-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111221,8796095360427,"Lucas Martin","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_994ba38a5ba835b3df7d355c54d3ed8d",8,"Research & Report","Kiribati - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - Summary","Kiribati’s debt is assessed as sustainable, yet the risk of external and overall debt distress remains high. The mechanical signal points to moderate risk, but judgment extends the projection horizon to 20 years to capture climate-change impacts on debt dynamics. Under the baseline, external and total public debt ratios are projected to breach indicative thresholds in the long term, starting in 2036 and 2043. Stress tests highlight vulnerability to export and growth shocks, while mitigating factors include grant-only multilateral financing, near-term cash buffers, and long-term-only breaches.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Lalita Moorti (IDA) , and Corinne Deléchat, Niamh Sheridan (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) 1  \n\n| KIRIBATI: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | Yes. The projection horizon was extended to 20 years to capture the impact of climate change on debt dynamics. |\n\nKiribati debt remains sustainable but at high risk of debt distress, unchanged from the 2024 Article IV Debt Sustainability Analysis. While the mechanical signal indicates moderate risk of debt distress, judgment was applied to extend the projection horizon to 20 years to adequately capture climate-related vulnerabilities.2 Under the baseline scenario, the present value of external debt-to-GDP and total public debt-to-GDP ratios are expected to breach their respective indicative thresholds starting in 2036 and 2043, respectively. Stress tests confirm vulnerability to exports (including fishing license revenue) and growth shocks. Despite the high risk of debt distress, Kiribati’s debt is assessed to be sustainable due to several mitigating factors: (1) grant-only status for financing from multilateral development banks; (2) availability of cash buffers that can finance deficits in the near term; and (3) in the baseline, the breaches occur only in the long term. Risks from lower fishing revenue, weather-related natural disasters, or a downturn in global financial markets which would reduce the value of Kiribati’s sovereign wealth fund call for greater use of countercyclical fiscal policy, gradual fiscal consolidation and adhering to a prudent withdrawal rule from the sovereign wealth fund. Further progress with structural fiscal reforms, including public financial management, financial discipline and reporting of state-owned and joint venture enterprises, would help safeguard medium- and long-term fiscal sustainability. Continued access to highly concessional financing to support the country’s large development needs is needed to contain the risk of debt distress.  \n1 This DSA has been prepared jointly by the IMF and World Bank, in line with the Guidance Note of the Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries, February 2018.  \n2 The composite indicator based on the April 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO) and 2023 World Bank Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) data that was published in July 2024, is currently estimated at 2.75, corresponding to a moderate Debt Carrying Capacity.  \n1. The coverage of Kiribati’s public sector debt is the central government, central government guaranteed debt, and social security fund (Text Table 1) . The DSA is conducted on a residency basis. Debt coverage is broadly appropriate, although the timeliness of balance sheet information for state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and lack of data on joint venture companies, including with minority state ownership, are limiting factors. Recent and planned technical assistance supported by the World Bank’s Sustainable Development Financing Policy (SDFP) aims to improve government financial statistics (GFS) data availability and coverage by implementing an integrated financial management information system (IFMIS) and improve fiscal and debt reporting, with the approval of the fiscal reporting policy. SOE reporting practices have continued to improve, with 2023 financial statements submitted to the SOE Monitoring and Advisory Unit (SOEMAU) .  \n\n|  |\n| --- |\n| 1\u003Cbr>2\u003Cbr>3\u003Cbr>4\u003Cbr>5\u003Cbr>6\u003Cbr>7\u003Cbr>8 Subsectors of the public sector Sub-sectors covered Central government\u003Cbr>State and local government\u003Cbr>Other elements in the general government\u003Cbr>o/w: Social security fund\u003Cbr>o/w: Extra budgetary funds (","cbCaijjhTIVY5ZAB","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaijjhTIVY5ZAB","pdf",969002,1,22,"English","en",105,"# Risk assessment and key conclusions\n## Baseline projections and judgment on horizon\n## Stress tests and vulnerability channels\n# Mitigating factors and policy responses\n## Financing terms, cash buffers, and fiscal rules\n## Fiscal reforms, reporting, and concessional support\n# Coverage, data constraints, and technical assistance\n## Public sector debt coverage and residency basis\n## SOE and joint venture data 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2043.\"}]",1784489179,55,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"kiribati-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-summary","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/kiribati-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-summary/111221/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What is the overall assessment of Kiribati’s debt sustainability?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"Kiribati’s debt remains sustainable, but the overall and external risk of debt distress is assessed as high.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Why was the projection horizon extended to 20 years?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"Judgment extended the horizon to 20 years to better capture the impact of climate change on debt dynamics.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"When are the indicative thresholds expected to be breached under the baseline?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"Under the baseline, the present value external debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to breach starting in 2036, and the total public debt-to-GDP ratio starting in 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