[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-109952-en":3,"doc-seo-109952-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":92},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},109952,687197207919,"Theodora","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/a000253d6f5f7c60be?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1779446848396160552",8,"Research & Report","Kenya - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - May 2020","Joint World Bank–IMF debt sustainability analysis assesses Kenya’s external and public debt outlook under the baseline scenario and stress tests. Results indicate high risk of external and overall debt distress, with improved granularity showing “Sustainable” for the risk-rating granularity but breaches in solvency and liquidity indicators. The analysis attributes worsening risks to the COVID-19 shock, fiscal responses, declining exports, and weaker tax revenue, while noting strong debt-carrying capacity and expectations of improvement as exports recover.","Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION  \nINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nKENYA  \nJoint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis  \nMay2020  \nPrepared jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA)  \nand the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \nApproved by Marcello Estevão (IDA), Zeine Zeidane and ZuzanaMurgasova (IMF)  \n\n| Kenya: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nKenya’s debt remains sustainable. The risk of debt distress has moved to high from moderate due to the impact of the global COVID-19 crisis which exacerbated existing vulnerabilities 1 The COVID-19 crisis has led to a sharp decline in export and economic growth. Addressing the crisis has required a strong fiscal response from the authorities that has also increased budget deficits. Consequently, a number of debt indicators have worsened. Kenya’s external and public debt vulnerabilities also reflect the high deficits of the past, including due to a decline in tax revenues as a share of GDP in recent years. Solvency indicators for the PV of external debt-to-GDP ratio and PV of total public debt-to-GDP ratios are firmly below the indicative threshold/benchmark under the baseline scenario. However, there are breaches of one solvency indicator (i.e., the present value (PV) of external debt-to-exports ratio) and one liquidity indicator (i.e. , the external debt service-to-exports ratio) above the thresholds under the baseline scenario. It is expected that Kenya’s debt indicators will improve as exports rebound after the global shock dissipates. Kenya generally had enjoyed strong access to the international capital markets, and staff projections assume that existing Eurobonds will be rolled over once global capital markets reopen to frontier market issuers. This analysis highlights the need for sustained fiscal consolidation to reduce the level of public debt to more prudent levels over the medium term.2 The DSA suggests that Kenya is susceptible to export and market financing shocks , and more prolonged and protracted shocks to the economy would also present downside risks to the debt outlook. The current macroeconomic framework reflects currently available information. Updates ofthe economic impact and policy response to the COVID-19 crisis are rapidly evolving and global risks are heavily tilted to the downside.  \n1 IMF Country Report No. 18/295 (October 2018) contains the previous DSA conducted jointed with the World Bank.  \n2 Kenya’s debt-carrying capacity remains strong, as its CI, at 3.12 based on October 2019 WEO, remains above the upper threshold value of 3.05.  \nPUBLIC DEBT COVERAGE  \n1. Kenya’s public debt includes obligations of the central government. Debt data include both external and domestic obligations and guarantees. The external DSA covers external debt of the central government and the central bank, as well as of the private sector; stress tests apply to public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt. The public DSA covers both external and domestic debt incurred or guaranteed by the central government; and public domestic debt is comprised of central government debt. In this analysis, total public debt refers to the sum of public domestic and public external debt, however, it does not cover the entire public sector such as extra-budgetary units and county governments.3 Since the DSA coverage does not include debt of non-guaranteed state-owned enterprises (SOEs), an additional 2 percent of GDP is added to the contingent liability test. Contingent liabilities also include 5 percent of GDP fora loan default financial marketshock, which is abovetheexisting stock of financial sectorNPLs. The debt coverage excludes legacy debt of the pre-devolution county governments (whose size is modest),","cbCaikvKjMtb4wQ8","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaikvKjMtb4wQ8","pdf",411791,4,1,19,"English","en",105,"# Risk assessment and overall conclusion\n## External and overall risk of debt distress\n## Judgment and model indicators\n# Public debt coverage\n## What is included in the analysis\n## Contingent liabilities and stress test additions\n# Background on debt\n## Recent trends in gross public debt","[{\"question\":\"What is the overall risk level for Kenya’s debt distress?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis concludes that the overall risk of debt distress is high.\"},{\"question\":\"Why did the risk move from moderate to high?\",\"answer\":\"The global COVID-19 crisis exacerbated vulnerabilities by worsening exports and growth, requiring a strong fiscal response that increased budget deficits and deteriorated multiple debt indicators.\"},{\"question\":\"Which debt indicators breach the baseline thresholds?\",\"answer\":\"Under the baseline scenario, one solvency indicator (PV of external debt-to-exports ratio) and one liquidity indicator (external debt service-to-exports ratio) are above the thresholds.\"}]","Kenya - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - May 2020 | PDF",1784483183,48,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":87,"head_meta":89,"extra_data":91,"updated_unix":29},"kenya-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-may-2020","",{"@graph":37,"@context":86},[38,54,69],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,49,52],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":48},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":50,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":51},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":53,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/kenya-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-may-2020/109952/",{"url":53,"name":13,"@type":55,"author":56,"headline":13,"publisher":58,"fileFormat":61,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":62,"datePublished":63,"encodingFormat":61,"isAccessibleForFree":64,"interactionStatistic":65},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":57},"Person",{"url":42,"name":59,"@type":60},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-30","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":66,"interactionType":67,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":68},"ViewAction",{"@type":70,"mainEntity":71},"FAQPage",[72,78,82],{"name":73,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":75},"What is the overall risk level for Kenya’s debt distress?","Question",{"text":76,"@type":77},"The analysis concludes that the overall risk of debt distress is high.","Answer",{"name":79,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":80},"Why did the risk move from moderate to high?",{"text":81,"@type":77},"The global COVID-19 crisis exacerbated vulnerabilities by worsening exports and growth, requiring a strong fiscal response that increased budget deficits and deteriorated multiple debt indicators.",{"name":83,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":84},"Which debt indicators breach the baseline thresholds?",{"text":85,"@type":77},"Under the baseline scenario, one solvency indicator (PV of external debt-to-exports ratio) and one liquidity indicator (external debt service-to-exports ratio) are above the thresholds.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":53,"og:type":88,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":59,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":90,"canonical":53},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":93},[94,98,102,106,111,116,121,124,129,132,136],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":95,"show_sort_weight":96,"slug":97},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":48,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":99,"show_sort_weight":100,"slug":101},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":103,"show_sort_weight":104,"slug":105},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":107,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":112,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":113,"show_sort_weight":114,"slug":115},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":117,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":118,"show_sort_weight":119,"slug":120},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":122,"slug":123},30,"research-report",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":126,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":128},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":127,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":130,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":131},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":133,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":134,"show_sort_weight":133,"slug":135},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":22,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":138},"General","general"]